Central Asian countries pin hopes on route via Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan Kyrgyz expert on Caliber.Az

They arrived in Central Asia, the former Soviet republics, and began to tighten the screws. Furthermore, it was the United States, in collaboration with the European Union, that undertook this initiative. The reason is to help Russia evade Western sanctions.

So, if the threat of secondary sanctions was merely symbolic earlier, everything is now moving toward a natural outcome, judging by the West's increased activity in Russia's "soft underbelly." Specifically, Washington intends to completely cut off Russia's oxygen supply through Central Asia, employing various methods of influence ranging from stick to carrot. US Secretary of State Blinken’s recent visit to Central Asian countries clearly signalled the beginning of a new era in Western politics, and everyone will have to decide who is on the same side as Russia and who is not. Obviously, this is the purpose of the upcoming visit of US officials to Astana and Bishkek.

Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes at the US Department of the Treasury Elizabeth Rosenberg and emissaries of the US Department of Commerce with colleagues from the EU and Britain will visit Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan to discuss anti-Russian sanctions. The visit is scheduled for April 23-28, and it is planned this time to hold meetings with local government and business circles’ representatives, Reuters reports. Moreover, it is noted that earlier  US Treasury Department's Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson visited Türkiye and the Middle East for a similar purpose.

So, what kind of proposals are Western representatives bringing to the region's countries? How strong will the US pressure be to halt Russian export-import operations with Central Asian partners, and how will they respond?

In an interview with Caliber.Az, Kyrgyz expert Edil Osmonbetov noted that senior US and EU officials had already made many visits to Central Asian countries. Such high dynamics have been observed since the autumn of 2022, and judging by the activity of such a policy, the West still aimed to radically restructure Central Asian geopolitics and regional cooperation with Russia, de-energising the latter's economy from outside help.

"As a result of the war in Ukraine, huge opportunities have opened up in the post-Soviet republics of Central Asia for the United States, China, and the EU, because Russia can no longer allocate such an amount of forces and resources, and in general pay special attention to the countries of Central Asia," Osmonbetov says.

He believes that it is necessary to recognise and account for the fact that a new world order is emerging amid intense geopolitical turbulence.

"Back in the fall of 2022, many analysts said that the period of geopolitical manoeuvre or window for the Central Asian countries is ending. Everyone has heard [Belarus President] Alexander Lukashenko's recent speech, where he said that the Central Asian countries ‘need to decide’. So, in my opinion, the region's countries will have to make their final decision in the summer or even at the end of spring," the Kyrgyz expert emphasised.

And, first and foremost, Kazakhstan, in his opinion, will have to form its position as imported equipment and products from other countries are delivered to Russia via its territory - the so-called parallel import. So, a lot depends on the  US and EU negotiations due in Kazakhstan.

"I think that there is already a certain common position of the Central Asian countries on this issue, if only because we are still members of the EAEU [Eurasian Economic Union], where Russia is the main partner. In this regard, we have many common questions concerning business, trade turnover, and so on. There's no getting away from it. But we should not forget that the so-called ‘C5+1’ negotiation format was recently held, which was organised by US Secretary of State Blinken. Let me remind you that ‘C5+1’ is a diplomatic format, and its distinctive feature is that it is a new focus of the US strategy for Central Asia, which was announced in February 2020 in Tashkent by former Secretary of State Pompeo. So, recent actions in this format clearly make it clear that the United States is actively increasing the dynamics of cooperation with Central Asia. This is a substantive regional approach, and it was clearly stated that the United States and the European Union support the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of the Central Asian countries.

And the second thing that should be highlighted: the regional countries are offered a clear way to diversify economic and logistics routes, which is very important for them, because the sanctions that are being imposed against Russia, in fact, block all traditional transit routes from Central Asia. And here, for Kyrgyzstan and other countries of the region, an alternative route through the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan and further to Georgia, Türkiye is especially important – this is the main alternative," the political scientist stressed.

According to him, all Central Asian countries, including Kyrgyzstan, are well aware that secondary sanctions are a very serious, tangible threat, they can lead to large-scale geo-economic consequences, and therefore Bishkek and other capitals will avoid them in every possible way.

"I think the art of diplomacy is certainly necessary here, and many will try not to spoil relations with the United States and the European Union, to find a model in which it would be possible to preserve traditional partners and at the same time find other markets, diversification ways. I think this is the most pressing issue for all Central Asian countries. Plus, there is another small point: it is necessary to take into account the desire of the Central Asian countries themselves to look for diversification ways. On the other hand, at this stage it is, I would say, a question of existential geo-economic survival for the regional countries. And all the visits from the West, including the upcoming one, put us already in front of an irreversible choice. But I note that both the United States and the European Union understand that there is an economy, there is geography, from which there is no escape, and there are major partners and promising ones. I think that the negotiations will be difficult, although the West will also look for some compromises, taking into account the circumstances, and not create harsh sanctions pressure without looking at the situation. However, in fact, it is noticeable that there are tangible harsh notes in the rhetoric and position of the West, which makes it clear that it is time to make a specific choice. The X-hour, in fact, has come for the Central Asian countries," Osmonbetov summed up.