"Duck test" for Armenian revanchists From Garo Paylan to Nikol Pashinyan

There is a well-known "duck test," also referred to as a test for the obviousness of events. It suggests that the essence of a phenomenon can be identified by its typical external characteristics. The core of the test is expressed by the following statement: "If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it is probably a duck."

This test came to mind in the context of recent events unfolding in Armenia.

Let us remind you that last week, representatives of the American Carnegie Endowment visited Yerevan, where they met with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The delegation included Garo Paylan, a former member of the Turkish Parliament from the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). By the way, it's worth noting that the very fact that an ethnic Armenian served in the Turkish Parliament for many years directly refutes the false claims of the global Armenian diaspora about the mythical "persecution" of Armenians in Türkiye. Everything is going wonderfully for them in Türkiye: they have their own churches, schools, businesses, and their own representatives in Parliament at various levels. But does Turkey receive any gratitude for all this? No, it does not.

And Garo Paylan is a vivid example of this. While serving as a member of the Turkish Parliament, he regularly made statements that echoed the well-known position of the global Armenian diaspora and were insulting to the country of which Paylan is a citizen. For example, on April 24 of last year, he posted on social media that "109 years ago on this day, the Armenian genocide began." I am sure he will make a similar post again this year.

In other words, we are dealing with a professional mythmaker and provocateur. As a member of the Turkish Parliament, he expressed outrage over the protest by Azerbaijani environmental activists on the Lachin road and openly supported the position of the Karabakh junta, calling on the international community to put pressure on... Azerbaijan. Yes, on the country that was the victim of occupation, not the occupying country.

Recalling all of this, it's not at all surprising to hear Paylan's current statements. "We don't have the ability to attack Azerbaijan right now; to achieve this goal, we will need 3 to 5 years. We will strengthen our army over the next 3-5 years with the help of the United States and France," he stated in one of his recent interviews.

As we can see, we are dealing with an outright Armenian revanchist. After all, if he looks like an Armenian revanchist, thinks like an Armenian revanchist, speaks like an Armenian revanchist — then he is an Armenian revanchist. One like nearly the entire Armenian political establishment, if we can call the eclectic crowd that, though hopelessly plagued by Turkophobia and Azerbaijanophobia.

We have repeatedly demonstrated that there is no difference between Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Robert Kocharyan, Serzh Sargsyan, and Nikol Pashinyan when it comes to hatred towards the Azerbaijani people and the Azerbaijani state. There are only different circumstances in which they have found themselves. Nikol Pashinyan, who once shouted in Khankendi about the "ownership" of Karabakh by Armenia, and later gave the order to launch rocket strikes on Ganja and other peaceful Azerbaijani cities during the 44-day war, is no different from Ter-Petrosyan with his ideology of forcibly expelling Azerbaijanis from Armenia, from Robert Kocharyan with his claim of "genetic incompatibility between Armenians and Azerbaijanis," or from Serzh Sargsyan with his admission that the Khojaly genocide was meant to demonstrate the willingness of Armenian occupiers to kill peaceful Azerbaijani civilians.

And let no one be misled by the thought that in defeated Armenia, few people think exactly like Paylan. In this context, it is worth recalling the words of Hakob Aslanyan, an MP from the ruling Civil Contract party. In a conversation with an Armenian journalist, Aslanyan directly said: "Just look at the dynamics. We need another year to year and a half to fully straighten our back, and then we will talk to the Turks differently. If you follow the statements of the Prime Minister, you will see how much more confident our words are becoming. The basis for this is the slow but clear progress in the economic, political, military, and all other spheres of our country. Today, our country is slowly but surely straightening its back. The Turk sees how we are strengthening our borders. In 1-2 years, he won't be able to speak to us like this at all," said Aslanyan.

And it's unlikely that this can be dismissed as mere verbosity from a pro-government deputy. It is clear that this is exactly the scenario Pashinyan discusses in meetings with the activists of his party. Yes, Pashinyan, who met with Paylan in Yerevan, thinks exactly the same way as this professional provocateur. He is counting on the fact that, over time, Armenia will gather strength for a new military provocation against Azerbaijan. What many in Armenia and the global Armenian diaspora refer to as "revenge," when, in reality, it concerns plans for the occupation of Azerbaijani lands.

Therefore, the statement made by Garo Paylan is not an exception but just another confirmation of the real policy being pursued by official Yerevan. The Armenian political elite, while giving the appearance of diplomatic flexibility, continues to fuel revanchist sentiments within the country.

But if earlier Nikol Pashinyan relied on the Biden administration and Macron's France for this matter, now his only hope is Macron. Pashinyan has now traveled to the U.S. to participate in the 5th annual International Religious Freedom Summit in Washington, as well as the National Prayer Breakfast. These are meaningless events, and no meetings are scheduled with the new U.S. president, Donald Trump, nor are any serious negotiations planned. However, while in the U.S., Pashinyan will be able to coordinate his revanchist plans with the Armenian diaspora. After that, he will visit France to once again discuss with Macron the plan for new provocations against Azerbaijan.

The essence of this plan was articulated by Garo Paylan — to accumulate weapons and wait for the right moment for a military revenge. And all of this once again proves the validity of the demand made by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, voiced in his interview with local TV channels on January 7, 2025.

"I want to say again that we cannot just watch this as observers. Armenia must immediately stop arming. France and other countries that provide it with weapons must terminate and cancel these contracts. The weapons that have already been sent to Armenia must be returned. This is our condition. Let them take it as they please. I give my word, they know it, and those behind them know that if we say something, then we are already taking this issue very seriously," President Aliyev warned.

It is probably unnecessary to remind that Aliyev never speaks empty words. And those in Yerevan (and beyond) who are planning military provocations against Azerbaijan should always remember this.