Fear of risks with attempts to maneuver: why Yerevan skipped Moscow meeting Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The Armenian side refused to attend the Moscow meeting. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Vahan Hunanyan commented on Yerevan's refusal as follows "The Armenian side asked to postpone the meeting of the foreign ministers of Armenia, Russia, and Azerbaijan, given the situation in the Lachin corridor."

On December 22, Armen Grigoryan, secretary of Armenia's Security Council, said as if nothing had happened, that a peace treaty could be signed before the end of the year. "By the end of the year signing is possible if Azerbaijan responds positively to Armenia's proposals. It depends on Azerbaijan. Armenia continues its efforts to bring peace to the region. Armenia has made its step," Grigoryan said.

It is interesting: it turns out that the signing of a peace treaty by the end of the year is possible but on the conditions of Armenia, which has lost the war? Meanwhile, Yerevan refuses to hold a meeting of the foreign ministers, whose work in general directly determines the preparation for the signing of the text of the peace agreement. And all this is happening with just days to go until the end of the year. How can we understand the position of the Armenian side? Is this a deliberate dragging out of the process? That is, in reality, Yerevan is ready to use any pretext to delay the conclusion of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan as much as possible. What reasons does it have for this?

Foreign experts tried to answer these questions for Caliber.Az.

Volodymyr Fesenko, Ukrainian analyst and director of Penta Centre for Political Researches thinks that it is more likely a purely tactical delay of the negotiation process.

"After all, a peace agreement with Baku with the risk of losing Karabakh and other concessions to Azerbaijan creates huge internal political risks for Pashinyan's government, so it is trying to maneuver," he believes.

Russian South Caucasus expert Konstantin Tasits noted that the agreement on the text of the peace treaty is currently at an early stage.

"Earlier, Armen Grigoryan stated that so far only one clause has been finalized - on the establishment of diplomatic relations in accordance with the Vienna Convention. The rest of the clauses require further discussions and agreements," he said.

Negotiations are complicated by a lack of trust, an atmosphere of hostility and disagreement between the parties, including over the situation on the Lachin road, Tasits notes.

"The Armenian side perceives the protest action of Azerbaijani activists as a violation of the Trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020 and demands restoration of free, unhindered communication between Karabakh and Armenia. Azerbaijan, for its part, advocates monitoring of the mining industry for environmental risks.

Nevertheless, the official authorities of both countries express their intention to continue the negotiation process in order to reach an agreement on the text of the peace treaty in the near future," the expert stressed.

Mikhail Neizhmakov, Director for Analytical Projects at the Agency for Political and Economic Communications (Moscow), believes that, in fact, already according to the situation in November, the probability of signing a peace agreement before the end of 2022 was questionable.

"Also, let us not forget: at the end of the first decade of December, Armen Grigoryan, Secretary of the Armenian Security Council, mentioned that Baku and Yerevan had reached an agreement on only one point of this agreement - the establishment of diplomatic relations. Therefore, even if there was no crisis around the Lachin corridor, the pace of the negotiations would hardly allow us to hope that the agreement will be signed in December," he said.

If we talk about internal political factors affecting specifically the position of the Armenian government, it is likely that they take into account that the signing of such an agreement will cause a new surge of criticism from the opposition and is likely to become a reason for a protest campaign against Nikol Pashinyan's team, Neizhmakov says.

"Given that elections to the Yerevan Council of Elders are expected in the autumn of 2023 (and they will be of particular importance if only because more than a third of Armenia's population lives in the capital), it is more logical for Nikol Pashinyan to sign a peace agreement either no later than the early spring of 2023, or no earlier than late 2023-early 2024. Therefore, there is still a chance that an agreement will be signed in the coming months, but the time to do so is gradually running out," the expert says.

It can be noted that even amid the existing tension between Baku and Yerevan there is still a possibility of negotiations between Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan in the margins of the informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg, Neizhmakov reminded. At least, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov spoke about such a possibility in mid-December.

"But again, given the crisis surrounding the Lachin corridor, it is unlikely that such talks, if they do take place, will focus on strategic issues like a peace agreement - rather, the focus will be on tactical measures to reduce tensions," Neizhmakov concluded.