Kazakh expert on strategic implications of Azerbaijani leader's Astana visit Between lines of agreements in Astana

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Kazakhstan was strategic in the full sense of the word - important documents on cooperation between the two states, departments and organisations were signed. The number of participants in the negotiations from both sides indicated the importance of what was happening in Astana - it was immediately clear that it was planned to maximize Azerbaijani-Kazakh economic and political cooperation, its format, and areas of application. The assumption of coordinated action is made for a reason: the current geopolitical situation necessitates it.

What is the strategic conditionality of President Aliyev's visit to Kazakhstan, what breakthroughs in relations between the two countries are planned as a result of negotiations between the leaders of the states, and what will change the conclusion of so many agreements? Kazakh political scientist, and candidate of political sciences Sharip Ishmukhamedov, has analysed aspects of these issues for Caliber.Az.

It is difficult to overestimate the significance of the Azerbaijani president's visit to Kazakhstan since there are many reasons that prompted the two leaders to discuss interrelated problems and ways to solve them – instability on the borders of Kazakhstan, long-term uncertainty with the peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and general geopolitical turbulence throughout Eurasia. That is, taking preventive measures to ensure a country’s political and economic security as much as possible is a strict requirement of the time. And one of the main ways to achieve this goal is a strategic partnership of countries with a similar worldview, the same moral principles and a desire for peace and well-being of their people.

According to Ishmukhamedov, in such circumstances, the more countries sign bilateral or multilateral agreements on strategic partnership, the more security guarantees and opportunities to protect themselves from attempts to destabilize these states will be provided.

"The significance of Ilham Aliyev's visit is very high, and it is very good that it is happening right now, when Kazakhstan, frankly speaking, is in a difficult situation – it needs to make a choice between the warring parties in the Russian-Ukrainian war. In recent months, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has increasingly stated in plain text that the armed forces of Kazakhstan should fulfil their obligations in accordance with the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organisation] charter," the Kazakh political scientist said.

So Aliyev's trip to Astana was also undertaken in order to support Kazakhstan’s military and political security, Ishmukhamedov added.

"Another important point is that the economic situation in the country clearly indicates that Kazakhstan needs to diversify its oil exports because for several years they have been under threat of interruption due to constant unusual and strange breakdowns of the oil pipeline in Russia. One way or another, we observe that Moscow constantly restricts the stability and security of oil exports from Kazakhstan through Russian ports and pipelines. Naturally, in such circumstances, the visit of the Azerbaijani leader, who initially assumed an agreement on alternative routes for our oil exports, is extremely important.

Kazakhstan's information security has turned out to be no less vulnerable today, and here we also count on Azerbaijan. This is an important point because basically the Internet comes to us via transit fibre-optic cables laid across Russia’s territory, and any technical breakage of connections - intentionally or unintentionally - can easily deprive the entire republic of Internet communications literally in one second. That is, diversification is also necessary here, and the only opportunity is Azerbaijan, whose president signed an agreement with Kazakhstan on the construction of a fibre-optic network along the bottom of the Caspian Sea the day before," the Kazakh expert listed the spheres of interaction.

The breakthrough of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in the negotiations, in his opinion, lies in the fact that the parties confirmed the need to steadfastly comply with the strategic partnership agreement signed back in the 2000s, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline’s joint use.

"This breakthrough lies in the fact that for the first time, the parties agreed specifically - in figures, tons, cubic metres - on a certain volume of oil exports through the territory of Azerbaijan to international markets. Thus, Kazakhstan for the first time sends oil through a pipeline to Türkiye in this way. And I also see a breakthrough in the fact that for the first time at the meeting of our leaders, the issue of guarantees of the territorial integrity and independence of both countries was raised. Moreover, it was emphasised that the territorial integrity of both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan is a cornerstone factor and determines the security of both states. The words spelt out in the joint statement on the results of the visit, the protocol on the establishment of the Interstate Council of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Republic of Azerbaijan, are exactly in line with the spirit, articles and obligations adopted when creating the Organization of Turkic States, and focus on the need not only for humanitarian, economic cooperation but also guarantees that the parties will respect the integrity and independence all participating States. Only in this case, these countries may have prospects for cooperation at the level of military specialists, economists, politicians, investors, etc," Ishmukhamedov said.

According to the political scientist, the fact that a military alliance is being formed between Baku and Astana is unequivocal.

"Any expert in this field will confirm that a military alliance is not at all a joint exercise and the supply of weapons, equipment and ammunition. The military bloc and military security are built on fundamental bases, namely interstate treaties and agreements, which are the basis for military interaction. And in the final statement, Aliyev and Tokayev confirmed that relations between the countries are built on the basis of a common history and meet the fundamental interests of fraternal peoples. Only at this level of activity will Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan be able to ensure their territorial integrity and security, which serve as the foundation for military cooperation. The same agreement on the construction of a fibre-optic network is a serious practical step for the two states’ military security. First of all, of course, Kazakhstan, because our military is quite defenceless and in great need of new communications, and information security is one of the priority areas of military cooperation. And, of course, the agreements on the transportation of Kazakh oil also say a lot – that tankers, bulk carriers, and other vessels will be built for the transportation of military cargo, which is extremely important for the renewal of the Kazakh military fleet, which is now very limited in its resources and the range of tasks performed," Ishmukhamedov.