Opening of the Armenia-Türkiye border: A political manoeuvre or a backstab? Ankara and Yerevan’s strange decision

Another wave of euphoria in Armenian media. Initially, Armenian news outlets shared with great joy the news that the Armenian government had decided on March 20 to open the Margara checkpoint on the border with Türkiye from March 21 to March 31. According to official sources, this step is "necessitated by the need to transport humanitarian aid intended for Syria, sent on behalf of Armenia by land through Turkish territory." And on March 21, it was reported that "large trucks carrying Armenian humanitarian aid for friendly Syria are headed toward the checkpoint."

In light of recent developments, a question arises regarding how well official Baku was informed by the Turkish side about these actions, especially considering the absence of diplomatic relations between Türkiye and Armenia and the border closure since 1993 at Türkiye's initiative. The nuance here is that, according to information from the Anadolu agency, in the summer of 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan linked the possible opening of the Armenia-Türkiye border to several factors, the main one being the conclusion of a comprehensive peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan. In response to a specific question on this matter, the Turkish leader stated: "Why not consider this issue? We have already conveyed everything to Pashinyan on this matter. Now, we must do everything for peace. We hope that a lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia will soon be achieved, and Türkiye fully supports this. The opening of the Zangezur Corridor is the final step in this agreement." Clear and concise. Without the opening of the Zangezur Corridor and the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, no border opening is planned—temporary or otherwise.

It is evident that Armenia is fully aware of this nuance. This is confirmed by Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, who, during a discussion in parliament in the fall of 2024 about the country's 2025 budget proposal, responded to a question from opposition MP Anna Grigoryan from the "Armenia" faction. He stated that "Ankara links the opening of the border with the resolution of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations."

In other words, Türkiye has clearly outlined its "red lines" for the potential opening of the Armenia-Türkiye border. And this was inevitable, given the territorial claims Armenia continues to make against both Azerbaijan and Türkiye. In the case of Azerbaijan, these claims are clearly reflected through the lens of Armenia's constitution, which openly asserts aggressive ambitions towards Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, in the case of Türkiye, the Armenian coat of arms features Mount Aghri, which speaks for itself and requires little explanation.

In the context of the current developments, it is worth recalling that just two weeks ago, during the opening ceremony of the Iğdır-Nakhchivan gas pipeline, Erdogan, stating that the fraternal ties between Türkiye and Azerbaijan are developing in line with the saying "One nation, two states," emphasized how Baku and Ankara are committed to supporting stability, cooperation, and prosperity in the region. He further stated, "May God make our unity, solidarity and affection permanent." Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, in turn, symbolically highlighted the demonstration of "the unity, friendship, and brotherhood between Türkiye and Azerbaijan" through the opening ceremony of the pipeline.

Thus, the positions of the country's leaders are well known to everyone. However, in this case, the decision to open the Armenia-Türkiye border during the celebration of Novruz Bayram appears to reflect the interests of a certain group within the Turkish political establishment. This group's aim seems to be to artificially weaken the relations between Ankara and Baku by undermining Erdogan's line. In this context, it becomes clear that this "contingent" of politicians continues the strategy they embraced during the Biden administration. After all, it was the Biden administration that consistently tried to drive a wedge between Azerbaijani-Turkish relations, including by introducing "marked Armenian cards" into the region.

Therefore, there is nothing coincidental in the fact that in the past two days, Armenian journalists and political analysts, as the well-known fable goes, have been "gasping with joy." With what enthusiasm they collectively recalled how last year Erdogan, during the reception of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the Turkish House in New York, presented him with his book "A Fairer World is Possible," with which Pashinyan posed, not hiding his pleasure. But an even greater joy for Armenian analysts comes from the fact that this border opening happened right after a visit by a group of Turkish journalists to Yerevan. This visit, by the way, was funded by the Armenian state budget, which indicates the significance of this step for the Armenian authorities and lobbyists.

At the same time, some Armenian media outlets quoted Lucien Kopar, a correspondent for the Armenian weekly Agos published in Istanbul, who stated that "all the journalists agreed that the border must definitely open." This unanimity, it appears, occurred during the visit of the Turkish media representatives to the Margara checkpoint.

Thus, the Armenian-Turkish border has opened. Yes, albeit for just a few days, but it is functioning. It is quite evident which forces are behind this development, as the enemies of Türkiye and Azerbaijan have never hidden the fact that this action could undermine the unique bond of understanding and trust between Ankara and Baku, which has withstood the test of time. Undoubtedly, they will be mistaken in this assessment. 

After all, Azerbaijan has always been among the first countries to support Türkiye. It is worth recalling the strong response from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan during his speech on April 24, 2014, at the summit in Prague dedicated to the fifth anniversary of the Eastern Partnership program. At that time, when Serzh Sargsyan voiced accusations against Türkiye, he faced a firm response from President Ilham Aliyev: "Today, unfortunately, the President of Armenia, taking the opportunity, once again attacks Türkiye. It's easy to do this since Turkish representatives are not at this table. But I am here, and I can say why the Turkish-Armenian border is closed." This is a clear example of Azerbaijan's brotherly relationship with Türkiye.

It is also worth mentioning that President Ilham Aliyev was the first to congratulate Erdogan on his victory in the first round of the recent presidential elections in Türkiye. This gesture sent a significant signal to the leaders of other Turkic countries. It was not coincidental, as this is a crucial time for the leadership of the Turkic world. As Ilham Aliyev stated in Iğdır, "My dear Brother, the esteemed President, has played an immense role in the unification of the Turkic world," adding that "Azerbaijan has always attached great importance to the unification of the Turkic world and has spared no effort to ensure this unity, make it eternal, and establish relations based on common interests and shared history."

Let’s pay closer attention to the emphasis placed by the Azerbaijani president on "common interests and shared history." This is Baku’s position, and it is unwavering. Azerbaijan and Türkiye have always stood side by side. Therefore, those who are currently in euphoria over the events that unfolded during the Novruz celebrations at the Margara checkpoint would be wise to temper their overly optimistic views. As we noted earlier, certain biased forces, which may have infiltrated the political structures of our brotherly Türkiye, continue their dirty, provocative agenda aimed at driving a wedge not only between the two countries but also between the two peoples ("One nation, two states"). However, that very shared history and common interests will undoubtedly prevail. Let no one doubt this.