Politico: F-16s for Türkiye not done deal until these lawmakers say it’s OK

One remaining concern for some lawmakers is how Türkiye might use any US-provided fighters. Greece accused Türkiye of violating its airspace more than 10,000 times last year, and Türkiye has threatened areas in Syria held by Kurds the US considers allies.

Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who had previously blocked the fighter transfer to Türkiye, said he is in talks with the Biden administration about his hold and that he could make a decision “in the next week,” suggesting he could lift it. He said his longstanding objection over Türkiye’s aggression toward Greece and Cyprus still needs to be addressed.

“We’re having conversations with the administration. I still have concerns. I’ve told them about those concerns. If they can find a way to ensure that Türkiye’s aggression against its neighbours ceases — which has been great, but that has to be a permanent reality,” he said.

Menendez wants assurances “if there is to be any sales to Türkiye, that they will not use them to act in the belligerent way they have against other NATO allies, not just Greece,” he said.

Those guarantees would have to be backstopped by hard power. If the administration beefs up Greece’s military such that it gains a “qualitative military edge” over Türkiye, Menendez said “there may be a pathway” to approving the jets.

One element would be to agree to Greece’s request to buy advanced F-35 warplanes, he said, adding that the administration supports that sale but has not formally notified Congress of an approval.

A spokesperson for the State Department declined to comment on any sales before Congress is formally notified.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Jim Risch (R-Idaho) said that, like Menendez, he’s still in talks with the administration about ending Türkiye’s belligerence against its neighbours. Monday’s (July 10) breakthrough on Sweden, to Risch, means talks on the F-16s can begin.

“That issue is resolved now. It’s time to talk about the F-16s, and there’s a path forward there,” Risch said. “I think there’s a lot of moving parts here. Having said that, I don’t think there’s anything that’s not resolvable.”

House Foreign Affairs Chair Mike McCaul (R-Texas), and ranking member Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), who also have the power to block US arms sales abroad, said they have concerns that must be met before they would approve the F-16 sales.

McCaul has said he could be in favour of upgrades for Türkiye’s existing F-16s if Greece receives the F-35 and if Washington ensures Greece has a military advantage over Türkiye. On July 11, he said in an interview that Ankara also needs to start talks with Athens, press Russia to extend a Black Sea grain deal and take other steps.

“I’m optimistic,” McCaul said of Türkiye getting approvals to buy F-16s. “The first step was letting Sweden into NATO, and they’ve done that now. The rest are sort of sideline issues.”

Meeks said on July 11 on CNN that his hold remains in effect. While the Sweden breakthrough was a “giant step forward,” Türkiye can’t resume its violations of Greek airspace.

“But so far so good. I’m seeing signs over the last several months that Türkiye has kept its word as far as intrusions and flyovers of its neighbours,” Meeks said. “I need to have further dialogue and conversation but I think that things are moving along quite quickly and quite well.”

While the four committee leads have the power to block the sale, Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) has been an influential opponent of F-16s for Türkiye regardless of whether it relents on Sweden.

On July 11, he said he hadn’t changed his mind yet and that Ankara would at least have to pledge not to use them against NATO members or America’s Kurdish allies.

“We’re gonna have to look at all this as part of the mix going forward, but I do want to say it’s a big step forward, obviously, that Türkiye finally agreed that Sweden could be part of NATO,” he said.