"The US has a mixed perception of the new realities in the South Caucasus" Eugene Chausovsky on Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az interview with Eugene Chausovsky, Senior Analyst at New Lines Institute.

Eugene Chausovsky previously served as senior Eurasia analyst at the geopolitical analysis firm Stratfor for more than 10 years. His work focuses on political, economic, and security issues pertaining to Russia, Eurasia, and the Middle East.

Q: After Washington's active moderating efforts in the settlement process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, we have observed a lull. Has Washington lost interest in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement or is it more preoccupied with Ukraine and the Palestine-Israeli conflict?

A: It is not the case that Washington has lost interest in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, but rather that the US currently has higher priorities in terms of the Israel-Hamas conflict and the war in Ukraine, as well as its broader global competition with China. It is also worth noting that mediation efforts by both Russia and the West have so far proven to be inconclusive in terms of facilitating significant diplomatic progress between Armenia and Azerbaijan due to political sensitivities regarding both sides. But Washington is still very much interested in the advancement of the normalization process between Baku and Yerevan.

Q: In your opinion, why does the US officially recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, but avoid mentioning Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory? Russia and the EU are already saying that, but Washington refrains. Why?

A: In part this is because there has yet to be a diplomatic resolution regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, despite Azerbaijan’s recent military victory. Another factor is the influential Armenian diaspora within the USA. But if there will be meaningful progress towards normalization between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the coming months, this will be less of an issue for Washington moving forward.

Q: Could this be the reason why the US ambassador to Azerbaijan has not yet visited liberated Shusha?

A: Such a visit would depend on the advancement of the diplomatic negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Without a peace agreement or at least comprehensive steps toward normalization, it is unlikely that the US ambassador to Azerbaijan would visit Shusha. 

Q: How does the US perceive the new realities in the South Caucasus region after September 20, 2023, i.e. after Baku's anti-terrorist actions in Karabakh?    

A: The US has a mixed perception of the new realities in the South Caucasus region. On the one hand, there is concern over the potential for renewed military hostilities or political turbulence as a result of the recent conflict. On the other hand, there is tremendous opportunity to take the step toward political normalization between Armenia and Azerbaijan and to promote economic connectivity between the South Caucasus region and beyond via the Trans-Caspian corridor.

Q: Washington, Moscow, Brussels. Three negotiating platforms. In your opinion, which one has a higher chance of signing a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan?

A: At the moment, it appears that none of these negotiating platforms can produce a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan, at least not on their own. Armenia has expressed its frustrations with Russia, while Azerbaijan has expressed its frustrations with the West. Other negotiation platforms, including with the mediation of third parties such as Georgia, have risen in importance in recent months. Yet it is clear that for a meaningful and enduring peace treaty to be signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, each of these external players will need to play a constructive role for it to succeed.

Q: In your opinion, what are the US geopolitical orientations in the South Caucasus?

A: Washington is interested in preventing the South Caucasus from being firmly within the Russian sphere of influence, or under the influence of other adversarial actors to the US. The US would like the South Caucasus to be oriented towards the West, or at least constructive in its relationship with the West, both from a political and an economic point of view. This has been the case with Georgia, and there are opportunities to improve US ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan if efforts are made to bring about a peace agreement between the two countries.

Farah Mammadli