What are the prospects of a revived 3+3 format? Reconnecting the region

On October 23, a joint meeting of the Azerbaijani, Armenian, Georgian, Iranian, Russian and Turkish foreign ministers was to take place in Tehran within the framework of the regional 3+3 format. Despite the invitation of all regional countries, Georgia refused to attend due to contradictory aspects of representing on the same platform as Russia.

Cooperation under the 3+3 format involves creating a regional system based on close relationships in many areas. However, this idea has not yet been promoted. For the first time, the format was proposed by Türkiye and supported by Russia in 2020 to address the issues of security and economic and transport ties between these countries in the post-second-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

However, at that time, the Armenian authorities did not react to the official invitation to participate in the platform, citing the stalemate in the peace negotiations with Azerbaijan. Moreover, the occasional tensions between Baku and Yerevan flared up in Karabakh and borderline areas between 2020-2023, significantly reducing the chances of establishing a regional cooperation format.

The idea of the 3+3 format was dropped from the agenda following the diplomatic confrontation between Iran and Azerbaijan in 2022, which dramatically escalated. Nevertheless, in the post-anti-terrorist operation of Azerbaijan in the Karabakh region on September 19, Baku signalled its willingness to revive the 3+3 format idea.

As such, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov attended the recent ministerial meeting in Tehran, stating that the "3+3" format was created with the aim of considering ways to resolve regional problems by countries in the region. Consequently, Baku believes that the format has prospects of enhancing regional interconnectivity.

According Bayramov, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project with the participation of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye, as well as the North-Transport South corridor with the participation of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran, and the trilateral format of cooperation between Azerbaijan-Iran-Türkiye clearly demonstrated that they serve for the benefit of not only one state but also all countries in the region.

Traditionally, in terms of regional infrastructure projects, Azerbaijan refers to the positive impact of carried out projects that economically and politically benefited not only regional countries but also a wider geography.

Therefore, creating transport communications between the East Zangezur economic region of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran, noting that the speedy completion of the construction of infrastructure projects and the commissioning of transport routes will serve as mutually beneficial regional cooperation.

For Iran, the revival of the 3+3 format is an irreplaceable opportunity to restore its diminishing influence in the region and reiterate the regional power concept. The re-engagement with regional states and infrastructure projects will enable Iran to confront the potential involvement of external actors in the South Caucasus's internal dynamics.

Moreover, Iran's enthusiasm for participating in the format would motivate Armenia to pursue at least limited participation, as Tehran is one of the main regional security guarantors of Armenia against Azerbaijan.

The issue of regional cooperation is included in the Armenian government's action plan as an important provision, and from the very beginning, Armenia has been interested in the opportunities for regional cooperation; the problem is just in the nuances. Official Yerevan seems hesitant as it still seems vulnerable in the post-war period and ongoing domestic unrest triggered by conservative opposition forces.

In addition, within the framework of Armenian experts are sceptical about this initiative of Türkiye, claiming that it is nothing but an attempt of Ankara to expand geopolitical influence, thus “threatening Armenia’s sovereignty”.

Indeed, Yerevan's profound opposition to the format idea has also severely challenged Iran. Relatedly, it would be difficult for the acting Armenian government, which faces solid political opposition internally, to shake hands with Turkey and Azerbaijan at this time. Another challenge is indeed Georgia's opposition. Tbilisi reiterates it will not participate in any regional body with Russia unless Moscow ends its occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Although the regional partnership within the 3+3 format will not yield swift results in terms of connectivity, the idea would highlight the importance of regional power dynamics and forge a new partnership format enabling all parties to address their interests. From a purely pragmatic approach, the only factor likely to help the 3 + 3 model come into being is for the regional players to focus on developing trans-border rail networks and extensive connectivity projects.