Moscow-Yerevan: New split in positions and concepts
"Revenge" operation as barometer of Armenian-Russian relations

ANALYTICS  15 August 2022 - 11:16

Moscow and Yerevan are almost the same story as the old man and the stubborn donkey, where the animal clearly does not share the intention to ride him. Over the years it has become stubborn. But as you know, there is always a long whip for a stubborn donkey.

Yerevan stuck against Moscow's rock

Operation Vengeance" was the test of the strength and barometer of the Armenian-Russian relations. This test revealed Armenia's serious malaise, and at the same time, it exposed the fundamental contradictions between Moscow and Yerevan. When did this start? The disagreements have always existed, but recently they have deepened. At least because relations between Putin and Pashinyan – people from completely different strata of life and with different levels of political experience - have not developed too warmly. While Putin is more of a product of the state system, Pashinyan is a streetwise oppositionist with no corporate mindset. Moscow is more accustomed to dealing with old-school managers like Kocharyan and Sargsyan, but here comes the surprise...

The hatred towards Kocharyan, an old political rival whom Pashinyan had resented for a long time, ran counter to the ex-president's warm friendship with Putin. And his persecution, up to the imprisonment initiated by Pashinyan, has greatly annoyed Putin. Yerevan stuck against Moscow's rock... and it quickly blunted. The events of the 44-day war with Russia's demonstrative non-interference made Pashinyan realize that it was better not to mock Kocharyan and not to drag him to pre-trial detention centers because it would cost more...

There is something more profound here: Pashinyan's semi-proletarian provincial consciousness and the authority of "thieves in law" such as Kocharyan and Sargsyan. It was not by chance that after coming to power Pashinyan immediately launched a campaign of liquidation of criminal subculture and thieves' notions including catching and imprisonment of the former power's cronies. But we got distracted.

Santa Claus in Yerevan

The new aggravation of relations between Moscow and Yerevan can be dated to the middle of spring when the opposition revanchists began to rumble in the squares of the Armenian capital and it became clear to Pashinyan that the Kremlin had to do something about it. Particularly, when the opposition activists started massively setting up warmed tents in the squares of Yerevan and eating hot dishes cooked with funds that came from outside. Pashinyan eventually defeated the opposition, but the aftertaste of Moscow's flirtation with his political opponents was undeniable.

Then a series of proportional "responses" followed: the opening of the Canadian embassy in the Armenian capital and - the cherry on top - the arrival in Yerevan of the main American political intelligence officer. It shocked Moscow no less than Santa Claus who appears on Christmas Eve. It was clear that Pashinyan was preparing almost separate negotiations with Washington or probing the situation.

Meanwhile, the Armenian leader began to organize some acts of "disobedience" against his elder brother from Moscow. For example, he blatantly objected to unblocking the region's transport communications that the Kremlin needs. And anti-Russian sentiments began to swell and blossom like buds on trees all over Armenia. By the way, it is easy enough for Pashinyan to regulate such sentiments. There are many pro-American and diaspora NGOs in Armenia, for whom Russia is clearly an unloved brother.

Farewell from Moscow

Pashinyan was in no hurry to withdraw the Armenian armed formations from Karabakh - a useful swarm of mosquitoes, buzzing from time to time at Yerevan's request if someone suddenly offended the prime minister. But at some point, the Kremlin decided to cheat and say "farewell" to Pashinyan himself. When the occasion arises. Even if in some way, to its own detriment, since the effect of demonstrative punishment is still more important. As well as the edifying element for all other protégés of Moscow.

The Azerbaijani "Revenge" operation, which thoroughly knocked down all the arrogance out of "Armenian partisans" and all the Yerevan politicians promoting the "Artsakh spirit", was also a moment of revelation for Pashinyan - he finally realized that everything had gone wrong. Moscow practically refrained from commenting on the situation and Russian peacekeepers, in whose zone of temporary responsibility the operation was carried out, somehow conveniently evaporated during the strike of the Azerbaijani special forces. It was as if they all left at once for lunch. Although the probability of coincidence of these circumstances is actually close to zero.

Moscow thus killed two birds with one stone: it showed that it heard Aliyev's recent statement and kicked out Pashinyan. In this case, the Kremlin acted purposefully - it said "farewell" to Yerevan, which is especially obvious in comparison with the March incident with the Farrukh Mountain, when Moscow made a fire burst, almost accusing Baku of wrongdoing. Although everything was all right with the legality then and now - in full accordance with Clause 4 of the Trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020.

Where have you been?

But Moscow preferred not to react much to the large-scale operation "Revenge" with the establishment of control over the strategic heights of the Lesser Caucasus mountain range. It is clear, of course, that the Armenians, without exaggeration, became insolent in their ultimatum discontent in connection with the Lachin corridor - like a dog in the manger, which does not want to do anything, and is not going to let anyone near this manger. However, Moscow still had a choice: to play along with Yerevan, seriously annoying Baku, or stay aside. And in the end, such a bonus was not given to Pashinyan, which significantly weakened the position of the Armenian partisans, including the Arutyunyan clique in Karabakh. Now, this paramilitary crew is under the surveillance of the Azerbaijani military.

Pashinyan was outraged by this turn of events. Who could have imagined until recently that Yerevan and Moscow could clash over the most sacred issue - the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh? Moreover, Moscow used to take a convenient position for Armenians concerning the deployment zone of peacekeepers in Karabakh by building hospitals, bringing humanitarian aid, patronizing separatists, and nearly driving Armenian children to kindergartens. And now Pashinyan, in his claims, indignantly asks Moscow, "Where have you been?" Pashinyan's call to Putin was clearly an emotional one.

That's what you get

That is why Moscow's response is more like a chuckle in response to an ungrateful capitulator. There is a certain amount of irony in it.

The Russian side considers unjustified some critical remarks about the peacekeepers in the Karabakh region.

"Along with intensive political contacts, Russian peacekeepers also continue to work actively and make the necessary efforts to stabilize the situation on the ground. Both Baku and Yerevan have previously repeatedly noted the important role of the Russian peacekeeping contingent. We consider the separate criticism of the peacekeepers to be unjustified. We would like to refer to the Russian Defence Ministry for additional details," Ivan Nechayev, deputy director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's information and press department, said at a briefing on Thursday.

A stick without a carrot

To all appearances, Moscow decided to give the stubborn donkey a nudge into concrete actions and if it holds out and jerks in the direction of Washington or continues to block the unfreezing of the transport communications, to re-tie him and lead him in the right direction.

Apparently intending to take the initiative into its own hands, pushing aside Brussels from Yerevan, Moscow announced that talks will be held between the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia by the end of August. Moreover, it seems that Yerevan is being dragged to the meeting like that stubborn donkey. They will be watching it to make sure it won't say too much. If he complains...

Meanwhile, it turns out that the Armenian opposition is preparing a global offensive on Pashinyan's positions. This seems to have been inspired by the towers of the Kremlin. Former Constitutional Court Chief of Staff, oppositionist Edgar Ghazaryan even voiced grand plans of revanchists, presenting a strategy of dismissing Nikol Pashinyan as a result of the vote of no confidence. Three rallies are planned to begin with.

"The first one is on August 23, the second one is on September 2, a rally of the Resistance Movement, and the third one is on September 21, during the National Assembly's discussion of Nikol Pashinyan's resignation," Ghazaryan noted.

The new organization he announced will be called the "Independence Movement." The campaign will start on August 23 when Armenia adopted its Declaration of Independence and will end on September 21 when Armenia celebrates its Independence Day. And, according to Ghazaryan, "Nikol Pashinyan should not be Prime Minister of Armenia on September 21 at the latest.

This is the kind of impressive whip that will apparently force Pashinyan to act strictly within the framework of Moscow's agenda...

Caliber.Az