Yerevan voluntarily goes into nuclear furnace
Nuclear safety expert on possible catastrophe at Armenian NPP

ANALYTICS  21 September 2022 - 13:11

Armenia would rather be blown up by the explosion of its own nuclear reactor than remain isolated, rejecting Moscow's multibillion-dollar proposals. The staggering figures expressed by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk for Armenia's likely profits from unblocking communications in the South Caucasus do not deter Yerevan from attempting to save money and commit suicide by plunging the entire region into a nightmare of nuclear chaos.

The opening of roads and railways between Azerbaijan and Armenia will create conditions for an influx of about $4.5-5 billion of Russian investments in the Armenian market. Overchuk stated this on September 19 at the IX Russian-Armenian Interregional Forum. Almost all Armenian mass media outlets enthusiastically covered the layout proposed by the Russian politician. However, there is a feeling that even such a loud statement will not have any effect and Armenia will prefer to continue wallowing in complete isolation, stubbornly rejecting all opportunities.

At least, the entire current policy of Yerevan, which stubbornly disrupts the whole Azerbaijan-Armenia negotiations, including the work of the commissions on unblocking communications, by constant armed provocations on the border, compels Moscow, judging by Overchuk's statement, to act directly. Maybe such real figures of Armenia's prospective profits will shake up Yerevan's consciousness a bit and make it somehow rethink its donkey obstinacy.

It is unlikely. Judging by the fierceness with which Yerevan clings to projects that are literally suicidal for the whole of Armenia, which, according to the Armenian government, allow for tangible savings, such as the production of cheap electricity, the country of hays [Armenia] is in a deep logical deadlock.

It continues to persist and allegedly develop, for example, its own nuclear power industry on the basis of the Armenian nuclear power plant in Metsamor, which is literally crumbling before our eyes. The same nuclear power plant that has been repeatedly called for to be closed and disposed of by the leadership of the EU and the IAEA, warning Yerevan that further exploitation of this nuclear monster is dangerous for all of Europe. For many years, Armenia, despite all the EU reproaches, with a tenacity worthy of a better application, refuses all offers to help deal with this nuclear power plant. It argues that the country has no funds and that the plant’s operation is the only way to provide Armenia with electricity. Under this pretext, the Armenians behaved more than stupidly and recklessly - with the help of nuclear power engineers from Russia, they began to extend the "lifetime" of a reactor that had completely exhausted its resource back in the 90s of the last century.

But the good times for Armenia seemed to have arrived - now, in view of the supposed unblocking of all communications in the South Caucasus, it has a real opportunity to become a transit country, to put its economy on an entirely new track of open door policy, to start literally from tomorrow making big money. This is what Overchuk clearly called for in Yerevan.

The only thing to do is to finally give up the environmental projects that are extremely dangerous for the entire Caucasus and to start the gradual process of dismantling the plant with the help of the same Russian power engineers. In addition, it is necessary to stop the Metsamor NPP for another very important reason - the plant's reactor is located in one of the most earthquake-prone zones on Earth, on the border of the collision of two tectonic plates.

By the way, back in 2011, National Geographic magazine recognised the Metsamor NPP as the riskiest nuclear power plant in the world. As a Washington Post article noted, the Armenian NPP, located about 30 km from Yerevan, "for a long time caused serious fears for at least two reasons: the nuclear reactor on it has no protective cover, and the station itself is built in a seismically dangerous zone". It also notes that the nuclear power plant was closed in 1989 after the devastating Spitak earthquake.

But, alas, Yerevan can no longer refrain from its desire to live, as it seems to Armenians, as cheaply and sulfurously as possible, but in any case not to get out of isolation and not to allow the unblocking of communications. And it starts a new, even more, deadly project on the basis of its nuclear power plant: the construction of a new nuclear power plant with a capacity of about 1,000-1,200 MW near the existing one is planned. Armenian Territorial Administration and Infrastructure Minister Gnel Sanosyan also announced this in August 2022 on the air of the country’s Public Television.

"Several options are being considered - to build a power unit of about 1,000 MW or 1,200 MW or two power units of 1,000 MW each. In fact, this will make it possible not only to cover all of the republic's electricity needs and reduce its cost but also to export the surplus to neighbouring countries. Thus, the government is looking at the situation in the long term," Sanosyan boasted.

As for the operating Metsamor NPP, the Armenian minister said that the plant has a license to operate until 2026 and documentation is currently being prepared to re-extend its operating life until 2036.

He refrained from voicing the cost of the new NPP project, noting that it depends on a number of parameters, including capacity, location, and sources of funding. "The project will cost several billion dollars. However, one should keep in mind that these funds will be invested over several years," the minister said.

However, Sanosyan's "long-term prospects" are literally terrifying. This includes the obvious stupidity of Armenian officials, as exemplified by this gentleman: Armenia is ready to invest billions of dollars in a suicide project that questions the existence of the country, but Yerevan prefers to refuse to unblock communications, which could bring multibillion-dollar revenues to the country's budget in the near future. Where is the logic? 

However, the international community does not intend to continue turning a blind eye to the nuclear threat in Metsamor, which has become even more obvious. In particular, this summer, Türkiye appealed to the international community with a demand to close the nuclear power plant. The Turkish provinces of Kars and Igdir recently held drills to simulate the effects of a possible radiation leak from the Metsamor nuclear power plant. And Caliber.az has already covered it.

All of this elicited a corresponding response. Thus, it was reported that IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi would visit Armenia on October 4-5 as part of a large delegation to inspect the state of the "nuclear coffin" in Metsamor. And we hope that he will issue a negative verdict on Armenia's operational nuclear reactor and future nuclear project.

At the same time, according to Kazakh political scientist and nuclear safety expert Dauren Aben, Armenia's plans to build a new nuclear power plant are of great concern to the international community and its geographical neighbours.

As the expert noted in an interview with Caliber.Az, Armenia's geological position is characterised by its location in the collision zone of tectonic plates with high rates of deformation of the Earth's crust and an abundance of active faults. In the past, this caused numerous strong earthquakes, such as the one in Spitak in 1988. It is quite natural, warns Aben, that in such conditions Armenia's announced plans for a new nuclear power plant are of great concern to the international community.

"Judging by Armenian officials’ statements, the new facility will most likely be built on the territory adjacent to the operating Metsamor NPP, which itself is a source of increased danger. This NPP is equipped with the Russian reactor of the first generation, and the term of its operation was repeatedly prolonged - last time till 2026, but Yerevan already considers the possibility of its prolongation till 2036. It is necessary to give credit to the Armenian specialists - they carried out great work on the modernisation of the main safety systems of the NPP, which was recognised by inspections of the EU and the IAEA, but it is impossible to modify the physically and morally obsolete equipment indefinitely. It can fail at any time in the event of some natural or man-made disasters that exceed the plant's protective capabilities," the Kazakh expert believes.

He notes that Armenia presents the use of existing infrastructure as an advantage of the new NPP, but this means an increased load on this infrastructure and, accordingly, the risk of accidents.

On the other hand, Aben points out that given the sanctions imposed on Russia, it seems unlikely that Rosatom will be able to ensure the speedy construction and commissioning of the NPP.

"Nevertheless, Armenia has announced plans to export surplus electricity produced at the new NPP to neighbouring countries. Needless to say, these are very ambitious, although somewhat premature plans, because first of all, it is necessary not only to build the plant but also to normalize ties with all its neighbours. If such a scenario were to materialise, Armenia could reduce its critical dependence on nuclear energy and diversify its energy sources with the support of interested international partners such as the EU and through mutually beneficial energy cooperation with Azerbaijan, Iran and Türkiye," the expert concludes.

Caliber.Az