"Pashinyan will be forced to sign a peace deal with Baku"
Aleksandr Khramchikhin provided answers to Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  16 November 2022 - 17:12

Caliber.Az interview with military expert, Aleksandr Khramchikhin.

- Aleksandr Anatolievich, how would you characterize the retreat of the Russian forces from Kherson, and how will this influence the outcome of the war?

- I think, this fact will very heavily extend the war. This can be explained by the fact, that Russia does not have enough force, and is lacking troops.

- Has Russia already lost the war?

- It absolutely has not lost.

- But isn’t it obvious then, that it has made strategic errors?

- This is very difficult and ambiguous. You know, one way or the other, the war against Ukraine was inevitable. Only the choice of the point in time and of the allocated forces could be regarded as a mistake.

- And what comes next?

- I think, that Ukraine will try to advance in other directions. How successful this will pose to be for them, that, as you say, we will have to wait and see.

- During the climax of the war in Ukraine, a majority of Russian experts did not exclude an expansion of the geography of the conflict, especially towards Moldovan territories. Based on the current situation, can we say that the threat of war in Transnistria has substantially decreased?

- I believe that the matter revolves around how much Moldova wants to stick to this. Because right now it is difficult for Russia to reach Transnistria, but on the other hand it might reach there in the end. And at that point problems will arise for Moldova, although, unlike Ukraine, it definitely does not have the strength to stand against Russia.

- What is your forecast regarding the time frame for the war in Ukraine?

- A year, two, three, it is difficult to say. It will stretch for a long time. It is hard to forecast it.

- Considering that Russia is giving up positions, are negotiations still not on the table?

- I find it difficult to imagine negotiations, considering that the sides hold mutually excluded positions. Exactly as is the case with Karabakh. You, as well as Armenians, have been constantly asking me over many years what will happen, and what can be expected. I was always replying to this, that there will be a war, because the positions are mutually exclusive. And war did eventually happen. The same goes for Russia and Ukraine, with the only difference being that the war is already going on.

- Armenia is actively trying to arm itself after its defeat in the Karabakh war. What do you think, for what purpose?

- To be honest, I did not notice them actively arming themselves.

- How can that be, Armenia is purchasing Indian weapons, although it did receive a rejection by Israel for the purchase of modern types of arms.

- I think it would be strange if Armenia was acting any other way. After the First Karabakh War, the Armenian side heavily neglected the purchase of weaponry and as a result has catastrophically lacked behind Azerbaijan. That is why it has to compensate for this gap, at least a little bit. Especially after it’s defeat in the second war in Karabakh because its losses have been much greater than that of Azerbaijan.

- Can Russia resume its military supplies to Yerevan?

- Everything relies on the specific request of Armenia and the specific terms of the deal. This means I can neither say yes nor no.

- Is there a likelihood of a new war in Karabakh? Let's say, after three years, after the time of the Russian peacekeepers expires in the region.

- I think, that after three years Azerbaijan will most likely start a war to regain the remaining territories. I find it hard to imagine how Armenia will start to fight because it has to buy ten times more weapons than it does now. I don’t even see a possibility for it [Armenia].

- Pashinyan has once again stated in Yerevan that, as much as Armenia does not want to admit it, Karabakh is Azerbaijan because the international community recognizes this fact. How do you value those words of the Armenian prime minister?

- The majority of Armenians think, that Pashinyan has been brought to power in Armenia to give up Karabakh. It looks like he is fulfilling this task.

- So this means he will fulfill this task to the end or he will continue to twist and turn?

- Obviously, yes. It would be strange if he did not fulfill it. My view is that from the Armenian point of view he is a traitor. But, again, those are their problems.

- And who ordered this? Who needs “the giving up of Karabakh” by Pashinyan?

- The West, as it seems.

- What direct interest does the West have in that?

- The West is interested in Armenia’s exit from Russia’s sphere of influence, which is why they believe, as it seems, that this mission will not happen without the surrender of Karabakh.

- So this means that Pashinyan will sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan under the pressure of the West?

- Most likely, yes.

- Could this happen by the end of the year?

- I suppose that everything is possible.

Caliber.Az