Yerevan resorts to anti-Russian actions because of its inability to counter Baku
Caliber.Az interview with Daria Grevtsova

INTERVIEWS  16 January 2023 - 17:36

Caliber.Az had an interview with Daria Grevtsova, the deputy director of the Russian Institute of Political Research.

- What is your attitude towards the action of Azerbaijani activists, which has been going on for more than a month on the Lachin road?

- The protest action of Azerbaijani eco-activists on the Lachin road is first of all an indicator of the unity of civil society in Azerbaijan, it is legitimate, effective, and clearly shows the world that Baku is ready to defend its lands, its national interests, despite all the difficulties. For more than a month Azerbaijani youth have been steadfastly protesting the lawlessness and exploitation of natural resources by Armenia. Despite the winter cold, unfavorable weather conditions, the protesters do not falter and will certainly hold out until the last moment, until their demands are met. This, too, shows Baku's determination to stop plundering its country's natural resources and to show Armenia its place.

I think Yerevan has nothing to counter this, so it tries in vain to stage various provocations like the anti-Russian actions in Gyumri in order to attract Russian peacekeepers to its side. However, as we can see, the Russian peacekeepers remain neutral and are not competent to meet Armenia's demands, so there is nothing to gain here.

It is important for Azerbaijan now to gain the backing of Europe and Russia to get serious support at the level of the international community. All supporters and friends of Baku should bring to the world community information about what is happening now on the Lachin road and how the real situation with Armenia is because the Armenian lobbyists through the media give a completely different picture, completely opposite to reality. In this regard, it is imperative that Baku intensifies its information work.

- What preferences is Armenia seeking from Moscow by launching a powerful anti-Russian movement?

- The anti-Russian movement has been launched to show Moscow that Armenia is ready to turn away from Russia and move toward the West. Pashinyan is trying to convey to the Kremlin in this way that Armenia does not benefit from cooperation with Russia. The Armenian side is betting on the West, although this is a rather dangerous policy for the large Armenian diaspora living in Russia, for Armenian business in that country, and for the Armenian economy in general. Armenia's policy creates difficulties in communication with structures such as the CSTO and the EAEU, which is also fraught with bad consequences for the Armenian economy. I think this is understood in Armenia itself, so no matter how much Yerevan rants, Armenia will not leave the CSTO and EAEU, especially in its current situation.

- At the same time, the action of Armenian revanchists near the Russian military base in Gyumri hardly took place without the consent of official Yerevan.

- Of course. The action in Gyumri is a challenge to Moscow and evidence that Pashinyan counts much on the support of Russian peacekeepers against Azerbaijani activists on the Lachin road. And it is likely that it was he who organised this action to show the families of Russian peacekeepers living in Gyumri that the RPC should have supported Armenia. That is, this is a kind of deliberately planned attempt to put pressure on the peacekeepers. Russia's neutral position on the situation on the Lachin road greatly irritates Armenia, so they resorted to traditional blackmail through anti-Russian actions, now in Gyumri. Moscow sees this move as a betrayal by Armenia and draws appropriate conclusions.

- Moscow is drawing conclusions but is not tightening pressure on Yerevan, for example on the issue of opening the Zangazur corridor, which is directly in Russia's own interests. Why?

- Moscow tries to influence Armenia whenever possible, but it cannot order it because it is out of its jurisdiction. Moscow can persuade and provide a platform for negotiations, including resolving the issue of the Zangazur corridor. So far it is obvious that the Armenian side is trying to sabotage the negotiations, which are held with the mediation of Russia, and this was demonstrated by the planned meeting in the trilateral format in Moscow, in which Armenia refused to participate. They are convinced that Russia has not helped them in their fight against Azerbaijan, and Yerevan is counting on the support of the West in this regard. Meanwhile, the US and France have their own goals and interests in the region, they need to destabilise the situation in order to be able to influence both sides of the conflict. Therefore, the creation of an instability zone in Armenia will be a priority for the Western powers, and if the country falls into this trap, it will end very badly for itself, up to the point of leading to total collapse.

- Is there any chance of a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan?

- I think we should not expect Baku and Yerevan to sign a peace treaty. Pashinyan might be willing to sign such a treaty, but this will not be allowed by his entourage. On the other hand, Pashinyan is afraid of being overthrown if he makes any concessions to Azerbaijan. He understands that the radical circles in Armenia will not forgive him for such a move. The Armenian prime minister will therefore continue to delay the signing of the final document.

- What do you think Azerbaijan has the right to do about Armenia's unwillingness to withdraw illegal military formations from Karabakh?

- Azerbaijan should continuously state at the international level that Armenia is not implementing the trilateral agreement of November 2020 and is not withdrawing its armed forces from Karabakh. It can also use force if necessary. Armenia must realise that the military method of resolving the problem could happen again, for the simple reason that power and truth are on Azerbaijan's side. Karabakh is Azerbaijani land, and Armenia will not only have to liberate it completely but also deal with border demarcation and delimitation, demining of fields, and other issues.

Caliber.Az