"Iran will bite the dust in case of conflict with Azerbaijan"
Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  13 February 2023 - 16:17

Iranian ambassador to Armenia Abbas Badakhshan Zohouri made several provocative statements, speaking at a conference on "Armenian-Iranian relations in the context of common interests" in Yerevan.

For example, he spoke very unambiguously about the Zangazur corridor, stating the following: "Armenia and Iran are, have been, and will be neighbours. Of course, there are some tricks, they speak about some so-called corridors, some actions, but Iran and Armenia will not allow creating such corridors".

And then, hinting at Azerbaijan, he said: "Iran can give a small slap to those countries that try to create problems for it. But Iranian authorities prefer not to act under the influence of emotions. They are wise and restrained enough in their actions".

What is all this about? An ambassador is not just a random guy. He represents his country and speaks on behalf of the state, expressing its position. This diplomat's words imply that Tehran does not wish to restore transport communications in the South Caucasus, open the Zangazur corridor, and sign a comprehensive peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Such a plan is obviously not suitable for Tehran.

And what does this "small slap" that Zohouri said mean? Isn't it the terrorist attack against the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran that is meant here? The consequences of which, by the way, Iran continues to gloss over, giving no information on the investigation at all. However, it is possible that it is not being investigated at all.

All this suggests that Iran has not changed and does not intend to change its attitude towards Azerbaijan. So how should we deal with such a neighbour? How to cooperate? Should we, for example, return the evacuated embassy to Tehran? Won't it lead to a rupture of diplomatic relations?

Well-known foreign experts have answered these questions for Caliber.Az.

Neighbourhood with a country like Iran is not easy, says Igor Semivolos, director of the Kyiv-based Centre for Middle East Studies.

"Just like with Russia. Words about good neighbourliness and readiness for cooperation, which are often heard in Baku during the visits of Iranian high-ranking officials, with one wave of the hand turn into threats to "give a little slap" to unnamed small countries, which allegedly cause Tehran problems.

Perhaps the Iranian ambassador to Armenia got carried away, forgot about political correctness, and forgot that his words have a different weight than those of a merchant in a bazaar. Maybe he is not aware that the North-South transit route between the two countries forming the axis of evil - Russia and Iran - lies through Azerbaijan, and the money that is spent now on the construction of the railway may be buried in the ground without any prospects of its launch," the regional expert wonders.

In general, the world is full of paradoxes, the centre's director noted. "Iran, complaining that it suffers from 'harassment and unjust sanctions', is ready to use force or threats against anyone else it considers weaker than itself. Typical cowardly behaviour. Try to catch him by the hand, either with 'Shaheds' or with threats, and you'll hear - 'it's not us, prove it'!

I would say that Iran in its current format is definitely not going to change, because then it has to offer an alternative, and there isn't one. The idea of vilayet-e-faqih has outlived its poison, stagnation, and collapse are ahead. Such a prospect must be taken into account when planning long-term cooperation with the ayatollah regime.

I do not take it upon myself to recommend what to do about the embassy and diplomatic relations. As in the case of a similar problem between Kyiv and Tehran, I propose to answer a simple question - will you get more opportunities if relations break down?

However, it could be much simpler than that. It is quite possible that the Iranian diplomat's comments do indeed come from his shallow mind and he was found in a bazaar in Qom among the IRGC's political operatives. Then there is nothing to be surprised about," Semivolos said.

Israeli publicist Avigdor Eskin (Jerusalem) noted that relations between Tehran and Baku have been strained since Azerbaijan regained independence.

"The residence of several tens of millions of Azerbaijanis on Iranian territory could be a rapprochement factor. At certain times this was the case. But as the internal situation in Iran deteriorates, the very existence of Azerbaijan is becoming an object of resentment and anger.

The level of dissatisfaction with the existing regime is particularly high in Azerbaijani-populated regions, judging by the intensity of the protests. Discrimination against Azerbaijanis in Iran, who are denied the right to study their language and culture, is surfacing.

At the same time, Azerbaijan serves as an uncomfortable example for Iranian citizens from the point of view of the authorities. The standard of living there is much higher. While Shiites are the majority in Azerbaijan too, the country is open to friendship with all countries of the world. This example is contagious; Iranian rulers are afraid of it.

Regarding the Zangazur corridor, we are facing growing opposition from Iran. This is happening in the general context of a terrorist attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran. At the same time, Armenia is blocking a resolution in the OSCE condemning Iran. In some areas we see a convergence of interests between Iran and Armenia," Eskin said.

In his view, the return of embassy personnel to Tehran is impossible at this stage. "There are reasons to believe that the attack itself was planned or provoked by certain security agencies in Iran. Under such circumstances, the safety of Azerbaijani diplomats cannot be guaranteed.

Baku shows caution and restraint with regard to Iran. At the same time, there is no doubt that Azerbaijan is a powerful regional force. Iran will bite the dust in case of a conflict. And Azerbaijan will have allies in case of such a conflict," the Israeli analyst concluded.

Caliber.Az