Ukraine war: will Russia go nuclear?
Expert Polina Sinovets talks to Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  02 March 2023 - 12:06

The threat of nuclear war is one of the hottest topics on the global political agenda. Russia is lately threatening the countries of the West with a nuclear weapon, while no less offended and aggressive Iran is said to be ready to build its own nuclear weapon. The latter factor, given the geopolitical location of Azerbaijan, is especially alarming - anything can be expected from our bellicose and not quite adequate neighbour.

So how close is the world actually to a nuclear catastrophe, and will it come directly from our region?

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is in permanent contact with Iran to determine the origin of 83.7 per cent enriched uranium particles found in that country at the Fordow site, Reuters said citing an IAEA report.

Iran has flatly denied reaching any critical thresholds in uranium enrichment and explained the International Agency's finding as possible "unintentional fluctuations" in enrichment levels.

"Discussions between the agency and Iran to clarify this issue are ongoing," the IAEA clarifies. And it is. Iran Atomic Energy Organisation spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said the other day that such reports were a "distortion of facts", adding that the country had not yet "attempted to enrich uranium by more than 60 per cent".

Nuclear experts have widely differing views on this issue. According to Polina Sinovets, Ph.D., head of the Centre for Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Ukraine), it is difficult to say precisely how quickly Iran may develop a nuclear bomb. Still, it is clear that the IRI is going to become a "threshold" nuclear state, that is, a state with the ability to develop nuclear weapons at any time and, like Russia, control the region without consequences of nuclear retaliation or any other conventional interference. Sinovets expressed this view in a conversation with Caliber.Az.

For reference: A conventional war is an armed conflict between two or more states conducted in accordance with international law, without the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) - nuclear, chemical, or biological. The difference between conventional and asymmetric war is that conventional war has no distinction between armed forces and civilians, the parties are morally equal, the adversaries adhere to the general rules of warfare, and they refuse to use prohibited measures.

"That is, all factors suggest that Iran has such plans," the Ukrainian expert said. - Whether Iran will officially declare the creation of a bomb or will continue to hide it depends on a number of circumstances, regional relations, the positions of the US and Russia on this issue, and the internal political interests of the state. However, one thing is clear - no bombing is capable of preventing Iran from building nuclear weapons. And it was clear a decade ago. The fact is that all Iranian nuclear facilities are deep in the mountains and an attempt to destroy them would only lead to a major war in the Middle East".

That is, the nuclear security researcher is convinced that any armed operation against Iran now would only push Tehran to develop nuclear weapons.

As for Putin's much-talked-about address to the federal assembly, especially its "nuclear part," while not as intense and threatening as earlier statements, did reveal the Kremlin's concrete intentions, such as suspending its participation in the START Treaty and conducting new nuclear tests. And this, in the expert's opinion, is a certain kind of nuclear blackmail aimed at the West so that it would help Ukraine less, so that it would not ignore Russia's demands.

"Whether Putin will test nuclear weapons or not also depends on the regional situation, Ukraine's offensive actions, and the volume of Western arms deliveries there," Sinovets believes.

That is, if these supplies increase and reach the point of sending combat aircraft to Kyiv, in particular bombers, then Russia will probably conduct nuclear tests - precisely to show that such weapons are not far away from being used.

"However, I think that Putin himself does not know exactly when it will happen, the main thing is to cast fog, to present a threat, to put doubts in the heads of Western politicians and fear of Russia's position. This was exactly the Russian president's nuclear message," the Ukrainian expert has no doubt.

At the same time, according to Sinovets, the message was also aimed at the internal audience in order to show the people that "Russia is still great and mighty, that it can rattle the sabre as much as it wants and everyone should be afraid of it".

As for earlier threats from Moscow to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine and somewhere on its territory which, in principle, can threaten the whole of Europe, the Ukrainian expert says it is still worth keeping in mind that in autumn 2022 the US unambiguously warned Russia that if it tries to carry out its threats, a conventional strike will be launched against it which can turn into an armed conflict between the two superpowers.

"Such a clash could easily lead to nuclear war. Thanks to the warnings from Biden and Blinken, however, Putin has seriously curtailed his threats against Ukraine, as evidenced in his latest speech. In my opinion, it is clear that such intentions make no real practical sense - any use of nuclear weapons against Ukrainian forces would have little effect, as its forces are spread out along the entire borderline and therefore Russia would have to launch dozens of nuclear strikes, which would amount to strikes on its own territory, damaging many regions of Russia. In addition to US promises to launch conventional strikes against Russian facilities, there have been strong warnings from China and India about their disapproval of such actions. And since Russia's economy is heavily weighted towards those two states, it is understandable why Putin considered this option disadvantageous to him and hastened to retract all previous statements. Moreover, he even assured that no one was talking about a strike on the territory of Ukraine right now," Sinovets commented on the situation.

Caliber.Az