"Armenia continues to bargain away its sovereignty for hollow promises"
Caliber.Az interview with Alexey Naumov

INTERVIEWS  18 April 2023 - 10:25

In an interview with Caliber.Az, Alexey Naumov, a leading expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs, shared his forecast for the future of the South Caucasus region.

- What is your political assessment of the latest provocative statements of the Armenian leadership about Russia? How is this fraught for Yerevan?

- Undoubtedly, Yerevan has been trying Russia's temper with various provocative statements regarding CSTO, Rome Statute, NATO training, and so on. Sometimes we even see attempts by Armenian politicians to draw back and swallow their own words in order not to irritate Russia once again. However, if we talk about the consequences for Armenia of provocative statements against Russia, I think they are not fraught with anything, at least not substantially. Firstly, because the dynamics between Moscow and Yerevan are already negative and to this day have not had deep political and strategic meaning. Secondly, Yerevan, which allows itself to openly oppose Moscow, is of little value to Russia, and with its illegal actions, it is merely digging its own political grave.

Moreover, while the allied relations between Russia and Armenia are in crisis and are gradually fading away, the Russian-Azerbaijani interaction is only strengthening. There is no disagreement between Baku and Moscow on the promotion of major projects, such as the North-South transport corridor and so on. Armenia, on the contrary, is burying its political future. It is therefore clear that in the medium or long term, Yerevan is bound to lose its unofficial status as a privileged ally of Russia.

- Will Russia be able to deploy a CSTO mission on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border despite Yerevan's discontent?

- Yes, I believe that the deployment of a CSTO mission on the border is possible, and given the position of the other member countries of the organization, Yerevan's objection will not play any key role. I anticipate that an approach will be found to Yerevan and that such a mission will be able to identify once again any violations by Armenian forces, who do not desire peace in the region for their own selfish ends.

- You said an approach will be found to Yerevan regarding the CSTO mission, but how will this affect the situation in the region? Most probably, Armenia will continue its military provocations...

- Yes, of course. Most of the various kinds of elites in Armenia, in the case of reconciliation and reintegration of the country into the economic and political formats of the region, will simply lose all significance. They are people who, although they want war, are unfit for it, as the events of 2020 have shown. Therefore, I think provocations such as the one that took place last week are very possible. Despite Armenia's subversive activities in Karabakh, Azerbaijan will achieve the full return of its territories by any means possible. It should not be forgotten that the respite Armenia received with the favour of Azerbaijan and Russia for five years will soon come to an end. And unless Armenia proves that it is a predictable and agreeable participant in international relations, it will not be softly dealt with.

- Do you think there could be any progress in the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations following the recent visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Türkiye?

- I think the main topic of talks during Lavrov's visit to Türkiye was the situation concerning the Ukrainian conflict, the grain deal, bilateral relations, and so on. But this does not mean that issues related to the Karabakh settlement and the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations were in the background. Rather, they do not require additional discussion, as work in this direction is proceeding in a routine, normal mode. But everything is not all right with the grain deal, there is a problem with the West's failure to meet its obligations regarding the admission of Russian grain to the world markets.

As for the Turkish-Armenian relations, their normalization is inevitable, as is Azerbaijan's restoration of its territorial integrity in full. On the other hand, relations between Russia and Türkiye are strong at this stage and are dictated not only by good contacts between the leaders of the two countries but also by economic benefits and expediency. We understand that Türkiye today is an important hub for parallel imports, and a significant trading partner of the Russian Federation, especially in nuclear power plant construction, the military, and tourism.

- What do you think about the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border?

- The opening of the Armenian-Turkish border will be paired with a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan. Türkiye will not leave Azerbaijan, and there will be no opening of the border in case Armenia continues its provocative attacks. I think this will happen after significant steps towards peace in the region so that it is clear that a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan is about to be concluded.

- Do you think a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan is possible in the medium term?

-I believe that this year will show whether Pashinyan can keep the country under control and whether he is capable of pursuing his own political course. Armenian PM is basically one of the adequate politicians, although in comparison with others, and if he really thinks about the future of his country, he should realize that time is short and the peace agreement should be hurried up. I remember that at the beginning of the year, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev warned that peace initiatives are now on the table, but will not stay there indefinitely. And Armenia must understand this.

- Do you have concerns about the deployment of an EU mission to Armenia? What risks does this imply?

- The European Union, in implementing its Caucasus policy, is not only guided by the interests of pacifying the region and bringing it back into full economic and international ties. The EU focuses its foreign policy primarily on confrontation with Russia and is interested in dividing Armenia and Azerbaijan from Russia in order to "play solo" in the region. The EU mission is therefore more likely to turn a blind eye to provocations by Armenia and allow it to delay the peace process if necessary in order to accuse Russian peacekeepers of some wrongdoing. Overall, however, the presence of the EU mission in Armenia suggests that the country continues to bargain away its sovereignty for hollow promises and opens a window for additional forces to enter the region that threaten its security.

Caliber.Az