"Provocations against Lachin checkpoint will backfire on Yerevan"
Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  02 May 2023 - 19:40

The Lachin border checkpoint is now operating in a routine mode as citizens of Armenian origin freely travel through it with their personal vehicles, passport control is in operation and cars get inspected if required. In this sense, Azerbaijan is faithful to its principles: the main criterion is security, in order to prevent weapons and criminal elements from entering Karabakh, there are no other restrictions for passing through the checkpoint.

However, this does not suit our "ancient" neighbours, who are relentlessly talking nonsense about Azerbaijan's alleged intention to carry out "ethnic cleansing". There are also provocative reports in the Armenian media and public forums that Armenian rights are allegedly being violated at the checkpoint, and someone even got sick at the sight of an Azerbaijani border guard. What can I say? It would be strange if we didn't hear such tall tales.

At the same time, Armenian blogger and activist Ishkhan Verdyan told Caliber.Az that the importance of installing the checkpoint in the Lachin region cannot be overestimated. According to him, firstly, "it is the first practical step in the process of normalisation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, even if the Armenian side does not want to recognise it". After all, the checkpoint, Verdyan says, introduces a clear demarcation, localises the areas of responsibility of the two states within their internationally recognised borders, and this is one of the most important points in the implementation of the peace process.

"Secondly, the checkpoint also has geopolitical significance, as it shapes the future configuration of a region in which big geopolitical players such as the Russian Federation, the US and France have undisguised interests. The checkpoint establishes new, civilised rules of communication between the countries and may serve as a good example for the implementation of similar checkpoints in other, no less important segments of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border," the Armenian political analyst said.

In his opinion, the fact of the appearance of the checkpoint is a phenomenon that is self-evident, logical, and legal, and it was bound to happen sooner or later.

"From this point of view, the Armenian side's outrage is little understood. If Armenia thought that the checkpoint on the border should never appear, we regret to note the political short-sightedness, to put it mildly, of the institutions overseeing Armenia's foreign policy, if not their incompetence," the Armenian blogger noted.

In this regard, he notes another absurd hope of Yerevan politicians: they seem to realise that they failed to provoke Azerbaijan into a new conflict in Karabakh. Now, after April 23, that is, with the installation of checkpoint, it is clear that these plans will be noticeably more difficult to implement.

"There is also disappointment in Armenian political circles at the fact that Azerbaijan had no intention of carrying out a blockade or ethnic cleansing. The checkpoint and the civilian passage of Armenian vehicles through it fundamentally break the insane doctrine of inevitable genocide adopted by the Armenian side, their only trump card, which is causing such inadequate reactions. We can only hope that understanding will come and Armenia will accept the rules of the civilised game," Verdyan said.

According to Kazakh political analyst Azat Akhmetov, it is becoming more difficult for the Armenian side to "muddy the water", as everything that Azerbaijan does is being implemented within the legal framework.

"Of course, the installation of the checkpoint is a nightmare for Armenian separatists and revanchists in Yerevan. But it is worth admitting that they themselves have consistently gone in this direction, in a sense playing along with Azerbaijan, because everything Baku is doing in Karabakh is aimed at establishing security and law and order factors, while the Armenians have persistently undermined them. It was a formula of 'you got what you fought for'. The way the Azerbaijani border guards on the border with Armenia work professionally and correctly speaks for itself. Azerbaijan has clarified its position on opening the checkpoint, so any Armenian provocations in this direction will only serve as a disservice to separatists and Yerevan. Berlin, Brussels, and Washington can clearly see who does not want peace and dialogue," Akhmetov said.

In the opinion of the Russian political scientist, and candidate of economic sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Karavayev, Yerevan in fact acts according to the logic of assuming no responsibility for the disrupting complex process of delimitation and demarcation of the border, unblocking of transport corridors, installation of customs and border posts - everything that was supposed to be discussed and implemented to clear up all the "blockages" that have accumulated in relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Yerevan almost immediately after the 44-day war began to interpret as a concession to Azerbaijan.

"This whole block of issues is interpreted by the political forces opposing Pashinyan and influencing the decision-making in the parliament as a concession," the Russian political analyst emphasised.

Pashinyan's faction, according to him, has solved this issue for itself quite easily and simply using the tactics of reverse claims. With the expectation that Azerbaijan will do it all for them and simply face Armenia with fait accompli.

"In my view, this is a deliberate strategy by Pashinyan and his team since such behavior allows them to stay in power long enough and create the semblance of activity in the interests of the national-patriotic camp without fear of being swept out of office one day by revanchist forces. In doing so, Pashinyan seems to admit that he can't influence Azerbaijan's actions in any way, be it by setting up border posts or checkpoints on the border, which was the case in the end. His other moves go along the same logic with attracting more European structures here, playing games with the US, and trying to bargain something from Russia. the idea of Pashinyan's game is to retain power and get out of this process with the least losses. He will keep on acting in line with such strategy in the future," the political analyst said.

According to him, it was quite expected that sooner or later Azerbaijan will go to establish a checkpoint if the policy of pumping weapons and fighters into Karabakh will continue.

"But sooner or later Armenia will go for the signing of a peace treaty. It can be a memorandum or a statement. In order to reduce the negative public reaction in Armenia to this event, the process in Yerevan, according to Pashinyan's tactics, will be delayed as much as possible. However, it will still happen and Pashinyan is well aware of this.

As for the reintegration of the Karabakh Armenian community, it is also clear that sooner or later, even in the absence of dialogue with local Armenians, Azerbaijan will step up establishing certain infrastructure: for example, I am sure that in the short term, there will be an ASAN office that will issue Azerbaijani passports to the local population. This process, for example, could be facilitated by Russian peacekeepers - all within the framework of developing the provisions of the Trilateral Statement," Karavayev summed up.

Caliber.Az