"Ukraine's counteroffensive will celebrate success at a later time" Experts talk situation on the frontline

Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry, gave Kyiv ten months to achieve success.

In an interview with Reuters, Budanov promised that the counteroffensive will succeed in less than ten months and that AFU will enter the territory of Crimea by the end of this year. But the hot phase of the conflict, in his opinion, will drag on for another year.

"There is a counteroffensive underway. In general, let's say it continues. There will be a success, but later... I want to remind you of the famous story of Bakhmut. The Russians attacked it for more than ten months. Our task is slightly bigger than Bakhmut, but we have less time than ten months," Budanov is quoted by the Resident Telegram channel as saying.

Information from the Military Media Centre under the Ukrainian Defence Ministry also indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive is still underway. According to Ukrainians, the Russian military in annexed Crimea is preparing for possible military action.

"In order to repel a potential offensive, the occupation forces are equipping fortifications in the northern, western, and eastern parts of the peninsula. According to available information, strengthening of the defence of the Crimean isthmuses is also being carried out," the report said.

According to the same Military Media Centre, in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, Russian troops are focusing on preventing attacks on their ships and fleet locations.

At the same time, many media outlets are spreading the news on a daily basis about the allegedly growing discontent of the West with the fact that the Ukrainian army's counteroffensive is dragging on, and this could eventually turn into a refusal of Western allies to help Kyiv. However, the persistently circulated assumption, which is not supported by any evidence, suggests that this could also be a targeted disinformation campaign overseen by Moscow.

What is the real situation on the Ukrainian fronts today? Is the counteroffensive in full force, but Russian troops are successfully countering it? Or is everything wrong, and Kyiv has not yet utilized its main capabilities and the main blow is ahead?

Ukrainian military experts answer these questions for Caliber.Az.

Viktor Yahun, Major General in the reserve of the Security Service of Ukraine, former deputy head of Ukraine's Security Service, and director of the Security Sector Reform Agency, immediately stipulated that he was not ready to comment on these issues in full. "I know much more than I need to know, and I don't want to lie. But your conclusions are correct. Everything is going according to plan, according to our plan, the dogs bark but the caravan moves on..."

Military expert and historian Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov expressed his opinion in more detail. In his opinion, the active fighting that has been going on since the beginning of June on the Russian-Ukrainian front, as of the beginning of July, raises big questions.

"This is primarily due to the failure of Kyiv's information policy when reports of a possible offensive began to be disseminated in local and foreign media from January - February 2023. As a result, the Ukrainian society and foreign allies had inflated expectations of the results of the offensive. Therefore, when it began to stall for various reasons, it caused a wave of negativity both inside the country and abroad, and, of course, many different fakes from Russia.

However, the fact is that, firstly, there was and is no real plan of attack in open sources - all the maps are drawn by different military experts and analysts based on their own vision of the situation in the armed forces of Ukraine and Russia. Secondly, it is already obvious that one of the directions for the Ukrainian army's offensive should have been Kherson, and the Kakhivka HPP explosion really confused the maps - that is, the original plan required adjustments (and this is time and real logistical problems)," the expert explained.

Of the non-obvious problems, first and foremost is the lack of mastery of Western-made armored vehicles, Zhirokhov says. "Since the Western supplies were coming against the background of active fighting at the front (it is enough to remember Bakhmut, where PMC Wagner was advancing), the Ukrainian General Staff decided to rearm only formed brigades, which were one hundred percent composed of mobilized servicemen (and not only soldiers and sergeants but also officers) with new equipment. Naturally, two- or three-month courses in Europe are not enough, and therefore a number of mistakes were made at the initial stage, which were actively replicated by the Russians (first of all, the loss of several units of tanks and BMPs).

Another problem is the complete domination of the Russian armed forces in the air. The military air defence was not enough to eliminate threats from Ka-52 attack helicopters, which are inflicting quite serious losses on Ukrainian armored vehicles with their Vikhr ATGMs. At the moment, there are no opportunities to eliminate the threat from Russian tactical aviation, which is actively using 500 and 250-kg caliber guided bombs. Attempts to bring Western-made SAMs closer to the front line almost ended in disaster - at least one case of IRIS-T SAM elements being hit by Lancet-type kamikaze drones is known.

Under these conditions, the offensive against the Russians' well-equipped fortification positions in the Zaporizhzhya region is not going so fast. Especially since there is a parallel offensive in Donetsk Region (near Avdiyivka and Bakhmut), as well as the repulsion of the Russian army's offensive near Kremenna (Kharkiv Region)," the military expert said.

At the same time, Zhirokhov notes, things are not so bad for the Ukrainian army. Today it is obvious that the General Staff has at least five more brigades in reserve, armed with Western weapons and armored vehicles, and "there is a hard process underway to find a weakness in the Russian defence," where it would be possible to strike with a breakthrough of the first line of defence and access to strategic space.

"As for any forecasts (regarding the liberation of Crimea by the end of the year), it's a thankless task to give them at the moment. The situation on the front is changing quite quickly, although it is obvious that the Ukrainian troops are ready to face such a challenge. But the realisation of such plans depends on many factors, which are almost impossible to foresee and take into account," Zhirokhov concluded.