Jeddah meeting: Is China entering negotiations? Ukrainian pundit for Caliber.Az

Beijing has praised talks aimed at finding a formula for peace in Ukraine after a Chinese envoy attended a weekend summit in Saudi Arabia that Russia called "doomed to failure".

China said the two-day meeting, which took place in the port city of Jeddah, helped "strengthen international consensus" on a peaceful solution to the conflict, Reuters reported, citing a statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

More than 40 countries attended the talks, including Ukraine, the United States, European states and the BRICS countries - perhaps none watched them as closely as China, Russia's most powerful ally. Kremlin officials said Russia had not been invited to the talks but was monitoring them, state media reported.

While the summit brought only the promise of more discussions in the future, Ukraine hailed China's presence as a diplomatic victory. Beijing avoided the previous round of talks in Denmark in June but has deepened ties with Saudi Arabia in recent years.

China has been given a prominent seat at the table in Jeddah. Photos published by Saudi Arabia's state news agency show Saudi national security adviser Musaed bin Mohammed Al-Aiba sitting between his US counterpart Sullivan and China's special representative for Eurasian affairs Li Hui.

Li "had extensive contacts and communication with all sides on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis... listened to the opinions and suggestions of all sides and further strengthened international consensus. All sides appreciated Li Hui's presence and fully supported China's positive role in promoting peace talks," the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement, adding that Beijing will continue to work to strengthen dialogue on the basis of its 12-point proposal on Ukraine.

China claims to be a neutral party in the conflict, but leader Xi Jinping has deepened his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and repeated the Kremlin's rhetoric on the war.

Beijing, which sees Moscow as a key partner and counterweight amid rising tensions with the West, has refused to condemn the Russian invasion or call for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and has also refused to join Western sanctions against the Kremlin.

There is no indication that China's presence at the summit will lead to any change in its unwavering support for Russia, but Beijing is increasingly keen to be seen as an international peacemaker. Kyiv called the development a "super breakthrough", CNN reported.

"Saudi Arabia has engaged China and this is a historic victory," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said ahead of the summit.

The question is, what is China's real position on the war in Ukraine today? Why did Beijing decide to participate in the Jeddah meeting? Would it like to see an end to this war?

Ukrainian Centre for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies Asia-Pacific section Head Yuriy Poyta told Caliber.Az that Beijing's participation in this meeting does not bring any negatives for China, but provides an opportunity to gain certain achievements, albeit limited.

"During the closed-door meeting, the situation is discussed and each country expresses its point of view on how it sees the development of the situation on the battlefield, in the international space, and accordingly, what solutions are proposed. That is, it is important for China to understand the opinions of countries and how they are changing. Because the dynamics on the battlefield are noticeable.

What was happening six months ago is no longer what it is today, because the Ukrainian army has launched a counter-offensive. There are certain achievements.

Plus, the autumn and winter period are approaching, which will again be difficult for Ukraine in terms of protecting its critical infrastructure from Russian missile attacks. Therefore, it is important for China to understand first-hand how the countries that participated in the meeting perceive the situation," the expert said.

Secondly, the composition of the participants implied the presence of representatives and advisers on national security and defence issues, says Poyta.

"That is, it was a less diplomatic format, during which the sides were likely to be franker about their views and not hide behind the streamlined language. So, for China, attending the summit was an important source of information, which, of course, China's representative Li Hui will analyse, pass on to the Foreign Ministry, Politburo, etc., and based on this, strategic decisions will be made about what actions Beijing should take.

Another aspect is the opportunity to influence the situation because, in addition to listening to the parties, they express their assumptions and observations. And China's recommendations, as one of the most important countries on the planet, are listened to. So, this is an opportunity to influence the point of view of other states and the security architecture in Europe, that is, to actually take part in it. China is interested in this, given its global ambitions," the expert said.

The question remains, of course, about China's position, Poyta said.

"There is no transcript of the talks, they are not publicly available, and I suspect that Beijing remains on its position that the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian war should be through negotiations. But China does not insist on its position on the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine and accordingly says nothing about punishing war criminals and Russia's military and political leadership. For Ukraine, such an approach is unacceptable.

For China, this meeting is also an opportunity to show its constructive position, that it is supposedly interested in ending the war. But unfortunately, its position is not capable of leading to peace, it can only freeze the conflict, and with very dubious conditions. Because it is impossible to guarantee a ceasefire on a 2000-kilometre front. And we see that Russia is not abandoning its strategic task of destroying Ukraine.

I think the Chinese leadership understands that it is impossible to stop the war at this moment, because neither the Russian nor Ukrainian top brass are giving up their strategic objectives. Therefore, the conflict will continue.

The question is in what format? It could be a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive, including with the help of aviation. It can be a frozen format, without active counter-offensive actions, which will be considered by the parties as an operational pause to prepare their troops.

It would be good for China to implement such a quasi-freeze because then it could improve its relations with Europe and return to full-fledged trade ties with the EU and the United States.

If this were to happen, it would improve and strengthen China's image for years to come as a state that has brought the parties to a peace agreement. So far, China's approach is to create conditions for some kind of negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow to start, but even if they do, they will not be negotiations about peace, but about some conditions unacceptable to Ukraine.

The fact that Ukraine and the West look more or less positively at China's participation in the last summit, I think, is explained by the fact that the West is trying to engage Beijing in a more active and constructive role. And even if China refuses to put pressure on Russia, it can have an impact on some other issues - for example, on the topic of ensuring nuclear security, or the functioning of the grain corridor. That is, to find some positive niche that China could occupy.

Therefore, I think that the optimistic assessment is an attempt to attract China, create a positive background, and remind it that it is a responsible player and must play a responsible role," the expert summarised.