"Garabagh separatists realise war is finally lost" Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

European Council President Charles Michel calls for a dialogue between representatives of the Azerbaijani authorities and representatives of the Garabagh public as soon as possible, Radio Liberty reports, citing a source in Brussels.

EU President Charles Michel also stated that there are no new proposals for the summit, so it is still unknown when and where the next talks will be held. At the same time, Michel takes note of the readiness of the Azerbaijani side to provide humanitarian aid via other routes, including through Agdam, the source added.

Meanwhile, the Armenian "Hraparak" paper reported that on August 22 the leader of the remnants of Garabagh separatists, Araik Harutyunyan, held a meeting of the "security council" where he said that a decision had been made to "start trading" on the Aghdam road to Khankandi.

Arutyunyan's supporters, represented by "militias" under the command of Karen Matevosyan, are expected to dismantle the concrete barriers installed on this road in the near future.

Harutyunyan also said that "construction materials, diesel, and medicine will be delivered via the Agdam road, while food will be brought in via Lachin by Russian peacekeepers".

In addition, he said that at the next stage, it is planned to discuss the issue of gas and electricity, which will also be supplied from Baku. In return, the Armenian side should open the Aghdam-Askeran-Khankandi-Shusha Road.

According to the newspaper, former commander of Armenian gang formations Samvel Babayan also took part in the meeting.

It turns out that the conditional clan of "President" Harutyunyan gained the upper hand in the sneaky struggle within the junta, the Dashnak-led "parliament" was neutralised, and at the same time, Araik started making steps towards the process of reintegration of local Armenians into Azerbaijan.

How can this be explained? Could he have come to such a decision on his own? Many experts believe that in the zone of temporary responsibility of the Russian contingent, no decisions can be taken without coordination with Moscow, especially such serious ones that we have been reading about in recent days. What conclusions follow from this?

Well-known foreign experts on the region shared their opinion about the matter with Caliber.Az.

Russian expert on Eastern Europe, Radio Liberty/Echo of Caucasus journalist Vadim Dubnov believes that the situation is somehow changing.

"Indeed, the idea that the road through Aghdam will still function is being pushed through. With what parameters and how it will be combined with the road through Lachin, and everything else - this, apparently, is the subject of discussions, which, probably, are now being conducted quite privately” the expert says.

At the same time, he does not really believe in any public dialogue like the one that may take place in Barda.

"They can only go through there if there is already some paper that can be negotiated and agreed on. But I think this is a very long process. It is very complicated because what is happening in Garabagh is certainly a consequence of what is happening in Yerevan as well. In turn, any serious change in Garabagh can cause friction and difficulties in Yerevan, which might scare off Pashinyan and make him take two steps back. So, it seems to me that in general, the derivative [mathematically speaking] is positive but very small," Dubnov said.

As Avraham Shmulevich, an expert on the Caucasus, the Islamic world and the Middle East, chairman of the Eastern Partnership Institute (Jerusalem), said, the Armenian separatists certainly read the political situation well.

"As for Moscow, there is no special sympathy either among the separatists or in Armenia for it. They have always treated Russia as a source of some opportunities and benefits, but they could never be called sincerely pro-Russian.

They understand perfectly well that Russia is a power that is colonising Armenia and they are not very happy about it. Another thing is that they have to rely on Russia to counter Azerbaijan. They would be glad to come under the wing of a more civilised and predictable ‘sponsor’, but there are no such sponsors in the vicinity. Therefore, Russian so-called peacekeepers could have a decisive influence on what was happening in Garabagh as long as Russia was strong there," the head of the institute says.

But now Russia's power is steadily weakening, he said.

"We see this well. It was especially obvious during the last BRICS summit when Russia was simply pushed into a corner by China. Although Moscow once created this organisation for itself. Armenians see all this very well. That is why the more time passes, the less Russia will be needed in Garabagh.

But they have no special way out. They realise that they have to somehow negotiate with the Azerbaijani leadership. Probably, they have realised that the war is finally lost. There is no military solution to maintain the Armenian presence in Garabagh.

The only country in the international arena that still seriously supports Armenia is France. But Armenians realise that France is far away and will not spoil relations with other powerful countries because of them. Therefore, Armenians have to somehow negotiate with Azerbaijanis, and the main issue now, first of all for the ‘elites’ of Garabagh, is the guarantee of their further existence - both political and physical.

They realise that they need to reintegrate into Azerbaijan in some way, and in principle they are ready for this, but they are not sure that it will be possible. It is not clear what will happen to those representatives of the ‘elite’ who led the hostilities during the wars. If some model of guarantees for them is developed, I am sure that the leadership of Garabagh Armenians will go for full reintegration. Then the population will quite agree to this.

While the sides are looking for a model of coexistence, this is where things are heading. Indeed, there is a desire for the Caucasus to get rid of Russian colonial influence. After all, before the arrival of Russia, the Caucasian peoples existed more or less peacefully with each other, it was a prosperous region," the Israeli expert concluded.