Will the AFU be able to cut off land corridor leading to Crimea?
Musiyenko and Lakiychuk respond to Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  28 August 2023 - 13:43

Ukrainian military broke through the first line of fortifications of the Russian army in the Zaporizhzhya region, General Mark Milley, head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Jordanian TV channel Al-Mamlaka.

"They have already overcome the first line of defence. This line of defence, which the Russians have been working on for months, includes minefields, 'dragon's teeth', anti-tank ditches, a complex network of defensive fortifications that the Ukrainians are now overcoming," Milley explained.

"It is too early to talk about the success or failure of the offensive," Milley emphasised.

Commenting on talk about the slow pace of the counter-offensive, Milley said that this is not uncommon in war, as military plans differ from actual fighting.

The other day, Natalia Humenyuk, a spokeswoman for Ukraine's southern command, said Russian forces were moving more forces to the Zaporizhzhya area from Kherson in the south because of heavy casualties among units that are already there.

The New York Times reported on August 13 that the Ukrainian armed forces were making more significant gains as they advanced toward Berdiansk and Melitopol. Kyiv's goal is to reach the Sea of Azov and close the "land bridge" between Russia and Crimea, which is important for supplying the Russian army, the newspaper noted.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on August 23 that the Ukrainian army was preparing to attack the second line of defence of the Russian army in the Zaporizhzhya Region. According to the analysts, if there are no other units of the Russian Armed Forces not previously engaged in combat at the point of defence breakthrough, the second line may turn out to be less fortified than the first.

Thus, there are signs that the Ukrainian armed forces have made significant gains by breaking through the initial defence line held by the Russian military on the southern front, especially in the Zaporizhzhya region. The strategically important town of Tokmak is said to be the target of the expanding wedge.

CNN reports that Ukrainian forces are showing signs of success as they advance along the southern front, potentially changing the dynamics of the conflict. In a notable development, reports of Ukrainian troops advancing towards Novoprokopivka have been confirmed by statements from the General Staff. At the same time, Ukrainian troops launched a parallel offensive in the Verbovoye area in the east, firing heavy artillery on both fronts.

Russian military bloggers are sharing their views on the grave situation on the front. They detail the use of Ukrainian aviation to cover the infantry advance, as well as the dropping of additional ammunition from the air in the vicinity of Malaya Tokmachka.

As events continue to unfold, the situation on the southern front is becoming increasingly unstable, and Ukraine's continued advance is creating new challenges for the Russian armed forces in the region.

So, how high are the chances that Ukrainian forces will be able to break through the second line of defence and then reach the Sea of Azov in the foreseeable future? Are there any signs that Russia is capable of preventing this?

Military experts shared their opinions on this matter with Caliber.Az.

The head of the Ukrainian Centre for Military and Legal Studies, Oleksandr Musiyenko, said that as far as the fighting in the south is concerned, we can state that the Ukrainian armed forces have passed the first line of defence of Russian troops in the Melitopol direction near the Rabotino settlement, and now the fighting is continuing to the south. According to him, the Ukrainian forces are making every possible effort to break through to Tokmak and to Melitopol. Hence, this is the aim to actually cut the Russian troop grouping in the south.

"Plus, Ukrainian troops are continuing offensives in another direction - Berdiansk. They are inflicting serious losses on Russian troops. The goal of these operations now is to reach Melitopol, liberate it, push back the Russian troops, and cut off the corridor. That is, to create maximum logistical problems for the Russian troops. Everything is being done so that this can be achieved during the autumn campaign, and it is very likely that Ukraine will be able to cut the land corridor to Crimea by the end of autumn this year," the military expert says.

According to him, the Russian command, in turn, is doing everything to resist.

"They are throwing reinforcements into the battle, but it can be seen that the losses they are suffering are quite large. The fighting is quite serious," Musiyenko said.

Pavlo Lakiychuk, a military expert of the Kyiv-based Strategy XXI Centre, noted in his turn that the AFU did achieve success in a number of areas.

"In the Melitopol (general direction to Tokmak) and Berdiansk (Zavetnoe Zhelanie - Staromlynivka) directions, they were able to overcome the first line of defence (or support line) and reached the main line (second line) of defence. This was facilitated by the tactic of alternate movement of the centre of effort between the two directions of strikes - the enemy had to manoeuvre operational reserves, moving back and forth, pulling up the already not dense forces from the Kherson direction (left bank of the Dnipro), thus creating another area of probable breakthrough. In the Tokmak-Melitopol direction, the AFU began fighting to master the first positions of the enemy's main defence line. According to a number of signs, the advanced units of the AFU have already managed, at least in one section, to pierce through the first position of the enemy's main defence line to a depth of up to 1 km," the expert says.

What is the difference in overcoming the first and second lines of defence? As Lakiychuk explained, the supply line is practically continuous multi-kilometre minefields.

"It is practically impossible to implement this on the main frontier - the defenders themselves need routes free of mines to manoeuvre their forces. But the main frontier is the lines of stationary fortifications, the frontier of strongholds. Tactics to overcome them require different strategies.

Will this speed up the pace of the offensive? Perhaps. Much will depend on the AFU's ability to damage the enemy's rear, to deplete the defence forces. It seems that our artillery and other destruction means at great depth are persistently engaged in this.

For the Russians in the south, the main question is whether the Russian command will soon find the necessary reserves to 'fill up' and, consequently, hold the main defence line. However, strategically, the Russian General Staff has obviously decided to remedy the situation in another way - by shifting the centre of gravity of military operations from the south to the east, to the Kupyansko-Limanskoe direction. There, unlike in the south, their logistical routes are short and branched. The idea is that if the offensive in this direction is successful, the AFU will be forced to transfer strategic reserves intended for the development of the offensive in the south. In part, they have succeeded. But the AFU retained their offensive potential in the south, while in the east the grouping of Russian forces was forced to regroup after desperate resistance from the Ukrainians. We await the second episode.

War is the interaction of two opposing forces with opposing goals and objectives. The Ukrainian army's chances of a breakthrough to the Azov coast are quite high and continue to grow. But Russia has not completely lost its ability to seize the initiative. We believe in the Ukrainian armed forces!", Lakiychuk summed up.

Caliber.Az