Munich 2024: More concerns mean more weapons
Expecting the total war

ANALYTICS  19 February 2024 - 17:20

On February 17, the annual Munich Security Conference kicked off with the participation of all leading political leaders and opinion makers amid the growing global security cataclysms, geopolitical fragmentation, and uncertainty.

This year's particular focus was Russia's militarist attitude and NATO's potential response scenarios in case of a total war in Europe. Indeed, the general mood among NATO political establishment regarding Russia has dramatically shifted after Ukraine’s invasion in February 2022.

The fatal impact of the war on global security, supply chains, energy flows, and economic stalemate paved the way for a quick militarization of Western Europe in the aftermath of World War II. Hence, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was one of the main speakers at the event, highlighting the importance of continuous support to Ukraine to defeat Russia and save Europe from an inevitable threat.

However, Zelensky’s speech occurred in light of the frontline stalemate, while Russia made enormous efforts to re-group and mobilize additional forces.

On the same day, on February 17, Ukrainian troops withdrew from the beleaguered frontline city of Avdiivka to avoid being encircled, handing Russia its biggest symbolic victory following Kyiv’s failed summer counter-offensive. Russia has been trying to capture Avdiivka for months. It is the most significant territorial gain for Russian forces since they seized the eastern city of Bakhmut last May and comes ahead of the second anniversary of the start of the invasion.

Considering a major shift in the frontline, more leading Western countries like Germany, France, Netherlands, and Nordic states call upon their respective governments to increase defence capabilities, including the defence budget.

For instance, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, often criticized in the past for not spending enough on defence, would meet NATO’s 2% spending target through “the 2020s, 2030s and beyond. Moreover, the chief of the European Union (EU) diplomacy Josep Borrel in his speech in Munich called for united Europe, citing that "it is no time to hesitate, but act."

Already the day before, a heightened sense of gravity could be felt in Berlin and Paris, where the Ukrainian president had travelled to sign bilateral security agreements with Germany and France. In these two European capitals, the goal was to help Ukraine and better protect Europe. These country-by-country deals follow on from G7 leaders’ commitment in 2023 to commit to long-term help, while Ukraine is not yet a full-fledged NATO member.

Such military alliances are a logical continuation of the ongoing militarization of the EU and NATO member states, while Kyiv seeks more weaponry and financial aid to repel further Russian attacks. The depleting Ukrainian ammunitions, shrinking economy, and mounting human and material casualties provoke more Russian missile attacks on civilian areas and urban settlements.

The Ukrainian issue was far from being the only security concern of the EU in its close vicinity. Another major milestone for the EU is indeed the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process as Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also attended the event and had a chance to briefly conduct a face-to-face meeting to discuss further perspectives on the peace.

Although no major agreement occurred between the parties, President Aliyev stressed the necessity to maintain political dialogue to reach a consensus on subject-related issues, including border demarcation. Moreover, both sides agreed to set the next date for bilateral working groups' meeting on the border demarcation/delimitation issue. The peace process between Baku and Yerevan recently faced a stalemate due to the fluctuating relations between Azerbaijan and the West, namely the West.

Azerbaijani government accused the US of taking "a staunch pro-Armenian position," neglecting the peace process's positive dynamics. Nevertheless, the US and Azerbaijani state officials held a separate meeting in Munich, which ended with Ilham Aliyev’s statement that “he highly values the bilateral agenda with the US." Despite the limited influence of the Biden administration in the South Caucasus region, it still maintains a certain level of involvement in peace negotiations.

Unlike the US, Russia currently maintains the leading role in the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process, though Armenia eyes strong Western involvement. However, the antagonism between Baku and the West appears to be the main obstacle that imperils positive vibes in the complex region.

The recent Munich Security Conference revealed major concerns of global and regional powers regarding traditional security architecture as rapid militarization and economic shrinking pave the way for significant and irreversible consequences for international order.

Caliber.Az