Russian-Ukrainian war is “fertile ground” for rise of radicalism in Middle East
Ivan Bocharov answers Caliber.Az’s questions

INTERVIEWS  25 April 2022 - 19:07

The impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the Middle East should firstly be considered as a threat to food security. An expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, Ivan Bocharov told Caliber.Az that, of course, the conflict in Ukraine has a great impact on the Middle East.

“Even before the February events [beginning of military actions between Ukraine and Russia], global food prices were rapidly increasing by almost 30 percent in 2021. After the outbreak of hostilities, prices increased by more than 12 percent only in March. This is too much, and the whole world will feel its consequences. The Arab countries will also suffer, as there are big importers of food among them. For example, Egypt is the biggest importer of wheat, while the increase in its prices threatens the implementation of governmental programs for subsidizing bread.

I would also like to draw attention to the fact that Russia is the biggest grain exporter, while Ukraine ranks the fifth place. About a quarter of the world's wheat export accounts for these countries. The disruption of logistics’ chains directly affects the supply of wheat and other agricultural products to Arab countries. It is partially possible to reduce the negative effects by purchasing grain from other countries, including India. Moreover, the conflict in Ukraine has also resulted in an increase in energy prices. Oil prices exported from Arab countries are also rising. Now Saudi Arabia raises oil prices, and this may set a trend for higher prices of other Middle Eastern types of crude oil," Bocharov said.

According to the expert, the radical groups will intensify activity as a result of growing discontent in Arab countries.

“I share the opinion of experts who reasonably assume that social unrest will increase in several Arab countries. A decrease in the price of bread in some of these countries was one of the important demands of the protesters during the Arab Spring [several anti-government protests, uprisings, and armed rebellions in most of the Arab countries in early 2010s], besides political transformation. Social and economic pressures are likely to increase in the region again. This will increase the number of supporters of opposition movements in the Middle East. Moreover, radical groups may intensify activity as a result of growing discontent," the expert said.

Bocharov thinks that the situation in Syria will not fundamentally change from a military-political point of view.

“There have been no full-scale military operations for the last year and a half. The Syrian conflict continues, however, at this stage there is no need for the deployment of big Russian military forces in Syria. As for the funds, of course, they are not enough, primarily for the restoration of the Syrian economy,” the expert said. It is also important that in connection with the military actions in Ukraine, the US and the EU will be unwilling to cooperate with Russia on such issues as the easing of sanctions on Syria, as well as humanitarian cooperation, which, in general, is natural," he said.

In conclusion, Bocharov added that currently everyone is interested in returning to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, mainly known as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal).

"Due to the military conflict in Ukraine, several sanctions have been imposed on Russia. So, sanctions against Iran may be reduced, as there is a need for the Iranian oil to be supplied to the world market. Therefore, now everyone is interested in returning to the JCPOA,” expert said.

Caliber.Az