“War in Ukraine can’t end in truce. Either victory or defeat!”   
Caliber.Az interview with Ukrainian military expert

INTERVIEWS  08 May 2022 - 10:40

Caliber.Az sat for an interview with Reserve Colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukrainian military expert, Oleg Zhdanov.

- Mr. Zhdanov, how do you assess the current military and political situation in Ukraine? 

- Currently, the military and political situation in Ukraine is hard, but stable. We are on the verge of an operational pause that might be announced by both sides. Both sides are exhausted, regrouping of troops and additional reserves are required.

-  How do you think, what consequences the upcoming hostilities in Ukraine’s Donbas region can lead?

- The outcome of the battles in Donbas will be equal for both sides. I think that the situation on the front line will not greatly change in the coming weeks in favor of any side.

- In this case, how would you assess NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s message that Ukraine will need to prepare for Russian troops’ big offensive in the coming weeks?

- I do not know what this message is connected with. According to our estimates, the Russian troops’ offensive has been halted in almost all directions.

- Why are the hostilities around Ukraine’s Zmiinyi island not easing?

- Zmiinyi Island is of great strategic importance, as it can be used as a bridgehead for landing ground troops in Bessarabia and Russia's breakthrough attempts to enter Transnistria.

- Do you mean the war may be shifted to Transnistria due to the presence of the Russian contingent there?

- The war is unlikely to be initiated there. This contingent is incapable of performing independent tasks without reinforcement. The extra personnel will not come as we control the entire territory of Transnistria. Therefore, Russia can destabilize the situation in Moldova, taking into account the limited capabilities of the Moldovan army.

- That is, you don’t exclude the risks for Transnistria?

- Of course, I do not rule out such a possibility, however, we will not initiate this war in Transnistria. If Russian troops shoot at ours, then we can retaliate. Only retaliation.

- Can Russia officially declare war on Ukraine on May 9, 2022?

- I think that nothing extraordinary will happen on May 9, 2022. Russia is in the euphoria of the holiday, so Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to declare war or general mobilization. Moreover, Russia’s economy cannot afford the announcement of such a mobilization.

- How long can the war last?

- I think that the war can drag on for a few more months. I assume that the active phase of the war will finally end by 2023.

- Do you think the credibility of Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons is low?

- I think Russia will unlikely use nuclear weapons. The Western countries warned Russia that the use of weapons of mass destruction (not only nuclear weapons) will not go unanswered.

- What is the general mood of Ukrainian society after more than two months of intensive hostilities?

- The Ukrainian population is determined to win. In principle, everyone is ready to fight till the last breath, because people understand that this war cannot be ended in any other way. A war cannot be ended with a truce, it can be ended either in victory or in defeat. We are determined to win.

- That is, Ukraine is not ready for any concessions?

- Certainly. We are not ready for any concessions. We will participate in the negotiations only based on our position. If Russia disagrees, we will continue to fight until Moscow itself requests talks.

- Does the West also focus on Ukraine’s victory?

- This war has two levels, that is, the level of Ukraine - our national liberation war and the geopolitical level. Therefore, in general, this is a war for global domination and a new world order. Accordingly, supporting Ukraine can mean a loss neither for the US nor for the West.

Caliber.Az