Kyrgyz pundit on Turkic Unity, Islamization of Russia and last chance for Armenia Caliber.Az interview with Baktybek Saipbaev

Caliber.Az had an interview with Kyrgyz political analyst, public figure and historian Baktybek Saipbaev.

- Mr Saipbaev, how do you assess the current level of interaction between Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan?

- Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan traditionally have good relations, because they are not close to neighbouring countries. This sounds strange and I will explain. Kyrgyzstan has very tense relations with its closest neighbours.

Taking into account that we are representatives of the same religion and faith, I think that the common Turkic solidarity, the idea of pan-Turkism, should remain a unifying factor for both countries.

- Is pan-Turkic solidarity at a sufficient level in the current historical period?

- Unfortunately, the Turkic Unity today is mainly declarative. Besides the wishes for closer rapprochement and cooperation, as well as periodic meetings, nothing more is observed. I think this is a big omission. The Turkic Unity should develop differently. Turkey is striving for leadership in the Turkic world, however, other Turkic peoples, apparently, also consider themselves ancient and distinctive. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are considered regional leaders in Central Asia.

Russia’s Tatarstan Republic also thinks so. Azerbaijan also positions itself as a self-sufficient country, which is also objective. I think that the idea of Turkic Unity must be transferred to another sphere. There is no need to imagine the Turkic Unity in the future as a common state or a common military-political union. The Turkic civilization has formed the basis of the Eurasian civilization, and Russia already understands this. Russia sometimes stresses that the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, would have never been created without the Turks’ influence. Therefore, it would be logical to create a theory for all Turks for everyone to realize the common origin and emergence of the Turkic peoples.

We could create a common literary Turkic language in which all Turkic peoples would speak. The creation of a common Turkic script could become an incentive for the integration of all Turkic peoples. In this sense, I think that Russia would not interfere with the idea of uniting the Turkic peoples in cultural and historical terms. In turn, the Turkic Unity would have received a second wind and would not have been as formal as it is now.

- From time to time, the idea of creating an "Army of Turan" bloc appears. What do you think about it?

- If the issue is that the Turkic peoples start to compete in the military-political sphere, then none of the major powers will allow this. Russia may be dissatisfied with the military integration process in Central Asia. On the other hand, whether we like it or not, China will be economically integrated into our region. So, the creation of a single "Army of Turan" is not in the interests of China and Russia.

I think that in the current geopolitical situation, it is necessary to create a unified cultural Turkic sphere for all Turkic peoples to realize their common origin and common historical roots. At this stage, the creation of such a model of Turkic Unity, rather than the practical implementation of the idea of creating a single military bloc uniting the Turkic peoples, is most acceptable. I imagine the unity of the Turkic peoples this way. They must prevail by cultural and historical factors rather than by military power. I will explain the reason.

The issue is that the process of Islamization is already underway in Russia. Muslims hold posts in the Russian government. Among them, there are many Tatars and Bashkirs. This process is natural. Such opinions are voiced in Russia that it represents a Slavic-Turkic unity. Therefore, there is no doubt that the role of the Turkic peoples in Russia will gradually and evolutionarily increase. Russia’s rethought state concept will appear and such statements as “Moscow, the Third Rome” will be replaced by the slogan of “Moscow, the third Horde”.

- Any country’s priority is to strengthen its military potential.

- Why do you think so? There are countries that do not have a powerful army, for example, Switzerland and Singapore.

- Who threatens these countries?

- No one will threaten the Turkic peoples if we unite in a common Confederate Union.

- What exactly do you mean?

- I regret that the Soviet Union was destroyed. It could be reformatted by creating the Commonwealth of Eurasian States. However, this did not happen.

The Soviet ideology disappeared long ago, so it is necessary to restore the Common Eurasian Commonwealth of States or Eurasian Confederate Union, rather than not the Soviet Union.

I think that Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan could join this Confederate Union on the basis of mutually beneficial economic cooperation.

- So far, these are only hypothetical assumptions. In reality, Kyrgyzstan initiated the “five plus three” format. Is it possible to implement this idea?

- From a cultural and historical point of view, as well as in terms of economic cooperation, this format can be quite effective. However, the likelihood of its implementation is complicated by political factors in the South Caucasus region. It is difficult to unite Georgians and Armenians in one union on the principle of pan-Turkism because they are Christians.

On the other hand, the South Caucasian countries should find mutually beneficial forms of coexistence and good neighbourliness, which is greatly hampered by the complicated and still unsettled Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.

- Let's call a spade a spade. The normalization of the Armenia-Azerbaijan ties is hindered by Yerevan, rather than Baku.

- Armenia’s territorial claims towards Azerbaijan because of Karabakh are a big mistake. Karabakh may be turned into a beautiful place of good neighbourliness and mutually beneficial coexistence of two peoples who once lived side by side in one region for decades.

You see, Armenia is a poor, mountainous country. I think that the two leading powers, namely, Turkey and Russia, will calm it down and persuade it to cooperate. We should wait.

- Are 30 more years required to calm Armenia down?

- There is no Armenia-Azerbaijan Karabakh conflict any more. Azerbaijan gained an overwhelming victory in the second Karabakh war.

- There is no Karabakh conflict, however, Armenian revanchists commit provocations in the post-war period.

- Such attempts will still be made. Armenia must realize that the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan is the only and correct way out of the economic crisis. Armenia is poor as a church mouse, if it were not for the support of the Armenian diaspora from all over the world, it is unclear how it would survive. In fact, it is necessary to take pity on Armenia because it will always need economic assistance, while Azerbaijan will always be a self-sufficient and economically developed country.

Of course, I fully agree that Armenia should restore transport routes in the region. The Zangazur corridor must be restored as it is economically beneficial for Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Russia and Georgia. Moreover, it will generally revive the regional economy. I think that this idea will be supported by both Iran and China, and in the future by Afghanistan. This will be the further implementation of the One Belt, One Road concept, which is beneficial for the entire Eurasia.

- As for the risks in Central Asia, may China completely absorb this region by using its “soft power” in the future?

- This can happen if we are completely dependent on the Chinese economy. Moreover, this threat is posed for many countries, even for Turkey, which is geo-economically moving closer to China.

- Is a great era for China coming?

- I do not agree with this assumption. I think that the US will be the main beneficiary of the next industrial revolution. The products of the sixth technological order will be mainly American. So far, China has not succeeded in this sphere and I think it will not succeed. Russia may succeed in certain spheres, mainly in the military-industrial complex, and nothing more. I think that no country is able to get ahead of the US in terms of all scientific areas. Therefore, I am sure that nanotechnologies, nanospace materials, nano drugs and so on will be concentrated in the US in 20-30 years. A sharp breakthrough will be observed in robotization. Biotechnology and medicine will be greatly developed.

- What is Russia’s future amid a long confrontation with the West and the war in Ukraine?

- I am sure that Russia will win the war with Ukraine. This will definitely happen. However, I doubt whether it can resist the West. Russia has not dealt with its economic self-sufficiency over the past 30 years, it has agreed to be a raw material appendage of the West. Russia has become a filling station, supplying oil, gas, and titanium to Europe by abandoning the development of such key industries as machine tool building, mechanical engineering, and so on. Moreover, Russia has greatly lost the leading positions it had during the period of the Soviet Union, for example, in space exploration. Presently, Russia has a lot of problems. Therefore, it is a big question whether Russia can win the economic war with the West.