Kremlin sets Armenia's political agenda behind scenes
Lasha Bregvadze for Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  17 May 2022 - 16:49

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Lasha Bregvadze, a senior security researcher at the Georgian Center for Strategic Studies (GSAC).

- Baku and Yerevan have agreed on the creation of a border delimitation commission. But who will supervise the delimitation and demarcation process: Moscow or Brussels?

- It is not easy to answer your question, because Russia will try by all means not to miss the chance to use its shaky, but a still effective authority on some European countries to achieve a result on this issue that is beneficial for Moscow. Moreover, they should not forget that the Zangazur corridor is still a stumbling block between Azerbaijan and Armenia. That's exactly what Russia uses, and I must admit, quite skilfully. In the context of the new redistribution of the world order, where Russia has lost its position as one of the leaders on the world scale because of Ukraine's invasion, it perceives any loss very painfully. Therefore, Moscow will cling to any opportunity to rehabilitate itself in the eyes of its people, and the commission is one opportunity to do so.

To achieve its goals, which will help it rehabilitate its reputation losses a bit, Russia will put as much pressure on Brussels as possible. Russia has done this to its advantage more than once. However, we must also take into account the factors of Turkey and Europe, which, in turn, have realized that Russia is not as strong as it has positioned itself. The war in Ukraine showed that Russia is stuck in the 90s in terms of its level of development. So, it remains to be seen how it will all end.

- Disobedience and protests have been taking place in Armenia for several weeks now. What do you think the Armenian opposition is counting on, apart from the banal desire to oust Pashinyan from power?

- As for the protests in Armenia, I can say that they will not give any real result. Two important factors clearly indicate this. First, these actions do not have great support from the population. There is not the spirit and boost that was so clearly felt during the 2018 protests, after which Pashinyan came to power. The number of young people who served as a driving force during the 2018 "velvet revolution" is missing.

And then, the situation in Armenia reminds me a lot of the situation in Georgia, where the people do not want to return to the old government (which has already lost confidence), and the new leadership may not completely satisfy the people, but not enough to be overthrown. Even with all its faults, the new government is more acceptable than the old one. There is no doubt that new faces and new leaders are needed, but at present, there are none in the political field.

The second factor is the path Armenia has chosen. Yerevan is totally dependent on Moscow, and the White House has no time for Armenia now; it has enough problems of its own. Based on that, I think there are no serious changes in Armenia at this stage. Pashinyan suits Russia so far.

- The Armenian opposition is driven by the revanchist aspirations...

- The Karabakh issue is a vulnerable spot for the whole South Caucasus region, and it will not be solved as easily as some people think, taking into account the war in Ukraine and the formation of new world order.

The outcome of the war in Ukraine will determine everything, not only in the South Caucasus, but also in the whole world. Again, new world order is being established, and the brave people of Ukraine are now fighting not only for their country but for all of us and for world peace.

- If we hypothetically assume that Armenia's opposition forces manage to come to power after all, will they abandon the trilateral statement and proceed to military action?

- If the opposition hypothetically comes to power, it will not change anything in Armenian politics. Armenia's political agenda is determined by the Kremlin behind the scenes. The changes may be of a superficial nature and affect only those in high positions in the government.

As for a new war in Karabakh, this is impossible for Armenia. During the 44-day war, Armenia realised how much their army lags behind the Azerbaijani army in development. And it is not easy to make up for that difference. Yerevan has neither the time, nor the resources, nor the new technology to do this. It is no secret that Armenia was supplied with weapons by Russia, which has enough problems of its own. Moreover, the war in Ukraine shattered the myth of the invincibility of the Russian army. Modern weapons (Bayraktar, Javelin, FAW, etc.) demonstrated how far Russia lags behind the West in technological development. Therefore, Armenia should not even dream of a new war in Karabakh.

Caliber.Az