"Armenian nationhood is in a state of externally controlled decay" Caliber.Az talks to Russian expert Vasily Koltashov

Caliber.Az had a conversation with a Russian political analyst Vasily Koltashov, director of the Institute of New Society.

- How would you assess the visit of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Türkiye last week from the perspective of the settlement of regional security issues - the situation in Karabakh, Turkish-Armenian relations as well as the strengthening of Russia-Turkish relations? Which of these could see progress in the foreseeable future?

- Lavrov's visit to Türkiye shows that Russia is still striving to have a balanced situation in the Caucasus and eliminate the existing contradictions. Türkiye, apparently, is also interested in ensuring that the Caucasus region does not become an epicenter of war and a zone of tension again, which Western states are unequivocally seeking. Therefore, at least at this stage, there is hope that the situation in the region will remain relatively calm.

- What is your attitude to the provocative statements made by the Armenian leadership towards Russia, the situation around the CSTO, and the adoption of the Rome Statute by Armenia? How may this end up for Yerevan?

- Abrupt statements of the Armenian leadership addressed to Russia and CSTO, as well as the adoption of the Rome Statute by Yerevan and others demonstrate that this country, though positioning itself as a player in the camp of the West, is, in reality, a small figure in a large chess game. The Armenian people are turned against Russia, and Pashinyan is doing his best to promote it. Such sentiments in Armenia are due to the fact that a significant part of Armenian society, especially the poorly educated, which the Pashinyan regime is oriented towards, does not understand what it has been dragged into and continues to see the world in an Armenian-centric way.

- In what geopolitical scenario would you consider a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan possible?

- I do not think a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan can be expected in the near future. If only because the British, the Americans, and the French are not interested in that, they need to create tension in the Caucasus region and direct it against Russia. On the other hand, Pashinyan and his team seem to have decided for themselves to bury Karabakh as an "Armenian autonomy" or an "independent republic" - call it what you like. That is, in effect, to make it so that Azerbaijan takes over Karabakh completely. Naturally, this plan is not made public, as it will not be understood by Armenian society, but it is there. My guess is that after some time, a peace agreement can be concluded without attracting the attention of the Armenian population. What is important for Pashinyan now is to keep the situation inside the country under control and retain his power. However, it is still a big mystery to the expert community why the Armenian population has not torn Pashinyan limb from limb for what he did in 2020.

- And why do you think it didn't?

- I think the reason is that Armenian society and Armenian statehood are not only not on the rise, but are generally in a state of externally controlled decay. In view of this, Pashinyan feels safe, but not so much as to openly say that he can "surrender" Karabakh and then conclude a peace agreement with Baku. However, there is no doubt that in any case, the achievement of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia depends on Western states. The outcome depends on their decision.

- Recently, there have been frequent statements in Armenia that the country's economy is supposedly on the rise. What do you think about this and what will happen to the Armenian economy if it turns completely to the West?

- Armenian economy is highly dependent on the Russian market. A favorable regime for the Armenian economy gives a feeling that it can remain in a fairly balanced state, that it can grow and at the same time receive some benefits from the European Union, some subsidies from the West, and use the opportunities of the Russian market. This is the main problem with the Armenian economy, that it is bilaterally directed. If Russia cuts off purchases from Armenia, replacing Armenian goods with Azerbaijani ones, for example, if Armenia is not considered as a country favoured by Russia, this will be a serious problem for the Armenian economy. Pashinyan understands this, which is why, de facto, the main enemy of his administration is not Azerbaijan, but Russia. At the same time, Moscow is not interested in putting Armenian society under stress and showing that relations are spoiled because of the Armenian side. Even though Pashinyan's propaganda spreads the idea of Russia as such a utilitarian country, which must constantly give some resources to Armenia, fight for it, and create a "Great Armenia". Because, as Armenian propaganda claims, Russia has no allies other than Armenia. But Armenia is not an ally of Russia either...

On the other hand, it is hardly possible for Armenia to turn completely towards the West because the West is playing Armenia as if it were a Russian factor in the Caucasus claiming that it is offended and has no contact with those countries which are no longer pro-Russian. That is where all the contradictions come from. But it seems to me that as soon as there is a complete reversal of Armenia towards the West, which actually happened long ago on a military, political, and ideological level, then Russia will be able to break off relations with Armenia. But now, at a time when there is heavy fighting in Donbas, it is not profitable for Moscow to create a new hotbed of tension for itself. And the West is taking advantage of this by unashamedly creating new hotbeds of tension in the Caucasus.