Berlin’s financial aid to Kyiv diminishes Electoral concerns or genuine budget constraints?

Josep Borrell, often referred to as the head of European diplomacy, has recently expressed substantial concern over reports of Berlin’s decision to scale back military aid to Kyiv. Despite this, Borrell acknowledged that Germany, as the foremost supporter of Ukraine, has made a notably significant contribution to the European Union's overall assistance to the country, albeit without drawing much attention to itself. 

The issue stems from reports by several German media outlets indicating that Berlin plans to significantly reduce its aid to Kyiv for 2025-2026, retaining only the funding already approved by the government. Consequently, new requests for aid from the German Ministry of Defence, as requested by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, will not be acted upon.

 
In this context, German sources point to a letter from Finance Minister Christian Lindner, dated August 5, addressed to Defence Minister Boris Pistorius. The letter outlines that new measures regarding aid to Ukraine may only be considered if funding is allocated in the budgets for the current and following year. In response to this, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung quoted an anonymous German government source as saying, "The show is over. The box office is empty." 

Additionally, Andreas Schwarz, German politician of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), indicated that no new orders for Ukraine are anticipated due to the absence of funds to cover them. 

The same publication reports that while the German defence industry is capable of promptly supplying additional artillery ammunition, drones, or spare parts for tanks and howitzers, such deliveries to Ukraine are currently unfeasible. This is because the government is bound by the approved budget plan, and there are no extraordinary funds available to finance additional supplies.

Amid these developments, it has been noted that the financial assistance from Berlin to Kyiv is set to decrease significantly in 2025, dropping to €4 billion from the €8 billion allocated in Germany's current budget (with €3 billion projected for 2026 and €1 billion for subsequent years). 

In response, Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated on August 21 that Berlin will "continue to support Kyiv for as long as necessary, remaining the largest supporter of Ukraine in Europe." He emphasized that "in total, this amount exceeds the contributions from several other major European countries."

Meanwhile, several news agencies have reported that the German government plans to support Ukraine in the coming years primarily using profits from frozen Russian assets, as agreed upon at the G7 summits. 

However, the situation remains uncertain on this front. Chancellor Olaf Scholz acknowledged that while G7 leaders have collectively endorsed the use of these assets to aid Kyiv, there are "technical difficulties" in implementing this plan, despite the fact that "all aspects have been resolved politically." He assured that efforts are underway to address these technical issues and that a substantial increase in support for Ukraine will be ensured. Nonetheless, some analysts have expressed concern that such assurances might indicate a potential withdrawal of support for Ukraine in the future.

This issue has emerged as a major topic of discussion within the Western expert community. It is particularly noted that Berlin's recent decision stems from the coalition government's agreed budget for 2025, which includes the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP, all of which have pursued austerity measures. According to Radio Liberty, despite the differing views of Germany's foreign policy chief Annalena Baerbock and Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck, their influence on this matter appears limited, likely due to the “low popularity of their parties” in the run-up to elections in three East German states. The Social Democrats are also experiencing historically low electoral ratings. 

In this context, Radio Liberty correspondents speculate that Chancellor Scholz's decision to halt additional funding for arms supplies may be partially driven by concerns about a severe defeat for the SPD. In Germany's eastern states, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is highly popular despite government opposition. The AfD maintains a firm stance against continuing aid to Ukraine and advocates for initiating peace talks with Russia. 

Additionally, the emerging Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance also garners significant voter support. Polls indicate that, less than two weeks before local elections, these two parties are attracting substantial voter interest. This situation suggests that Scholz's caution and adjustment of policies are motivated by a “fear of substantial electoral losses in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg, prompting him to address the concerns of East German voters”.

Thus, the recent emphasis on Germany's financial constraints for military aid to Ukraine may be a politically motivated maneuver. In other words, the reduction in aid outlined in Berlin's 2025 budget may not be driven solely by financial and economic difficulties, but rather by the country's political landscape. 

The forthcoming elections in the three eastern German states will be pivotal in determining the extent of this influence.

By Teymur Atayev