Cooperation of Turkic countries: open to all, including Armenia? Serhey Bohdan's think piece

A summit of the leaders of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Türkiye was held in Turkmenbashi last week. The main issue was the energy - the Turkmen hydrocarbons' access to new, primarily European, markets. This can be done via the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan and Türkiye. But, in fact, it is another step for the region's countries to build their future without guidance from external players.

Cautious statements about a significant project

Turkish leader Erdogan said during a meeting in Turkmenbashi that "the summit will strengthen strategic cooperation between the countries and the Turkic world as a whole," and specified that "it is time to begin work on supplying Turkmen natural gas to Western markets".

Following the meeting in Turkmenbashi, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced, "We are ready to make joint steps for the benefit of the three countries on the issue of Turkmen natural gas and have decided to create a working group to work on it".

The cautious wording draws attention. They are also related to the need to respect Turkmenistan's striving to maintain strict neutrality; Ashgabat did not join the Organization of Turkic States (OTH) due to those principles. Last November, it became only an observer in the OTC and, contrary to expectations, refrained from joining it at the recent summit of the organization in Samarkand.

It is logical that the Turkmen news agency TDH diplomatically reported on the conversation between Presidents Ilham Aliev and Serdar Berdimuhamedov on the sidelines of the Turkmenbashi meeting. "A separate topic for discussion was the prospects for expanding cooperation in energy security, as well as creating a modern transit and transport infrastructure, taking into account the favorable geographical location of neighboring countries with vast hydrocarbon resources".

The implementation of the idea can also be started without any unnecessary ceremonies. First, interconnectors can be built to connect the Azerbaijani and Turkmen gas fields, located near each other. They would not replace a full-fledged pipeline, because no significant amount of gas can be transported through them, but they would prepare the conditions and find the funds to build a pipeline.

The results of the Turkmenbashi meeting were not confined to gas: a trilateral intergovernmental agreement on trade and economic cooperation as well as a memorandum on the creation of a joint consultative commission on customs cooperation were signed at the summit.

The EU would like to lead the process of Turkic integration

The fact that the leaders of the three countries were finally able to meet to discuss all these issues is in itself a result. They have postponed such a summit meeting more than once or twice, and generally sought to hold it since 2015! But it became increasingly difficult to postpone further in the current circumstances: the radical changes in the geopolitical situation, as well as in the world energy markets, pushed the participants to have a serious conversation.

First of all, they had to discuss organizing transportation themselves and bringing their goods to market as sovereign actors. After all, the silhouettes of external players, powerful world powers and blocs, ready to take on these organizational issues, looming on the horizon, leaving only crumbs and "native" roles of performers to the owners of these riches and lands through which hydrocarbons will be pumped.

And this is not some remote theoretical threat. On the contrary, everything is very tangible - the whole year has passed under the sign of European countries searching for new sources of hydrocarbons. In fact, this was the subject of the November 17 ministerial meeting in Samarkand in the format of the "European Union- Central Asia". The head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell himself attended it and met separately with Deputy Foreign Minister of Turkmenistan Vepa Gajiev (an eloquent difference in formats!). And when Borrell lashed out at the Turkish leader the other day, it was because Erdogan plays an important role in trying to challenge Western hegemony in geopolitical projects in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. This includes Turkmenistan.

And these attempts have already had some success. First, there was the summit of the Organization of Turkic States in Samarkand (November 11). This was followed by the second meeting of the foreign and transport ministers of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Türkiye (with the participation of the Georgian delegation). At that meeting, the issues of cargo transit across the Caspian Sea were specifically discussed and the Road Map for 2022-2027 on the development and operation of the Middle Corridor, passing through Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, of which the Zangazur Corridor will also be an important part, was signed.

Energy issues were discussed at the same time. Earlier this month, Turkmen Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Meredov visited Azerbaijan, where he met with President Aliyev and Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov. The Turkmen Foreign Ministry commented on this visit, recalling that in January 2021 Baku and Ashgabat signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the joint exploration, development, and exploitation of the Dostluk hydrocarbon field in the Caspian Sea, and "bilateral consultations are ongoing at the level of working groups to prepare a corresponding intergovernmental agreement". In addition, on the eve of the summit in Turkmenbashi, parallel meetings of the foreign, transport, and energy ministers of the three countries were held.

Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Turkmenistan will cope by themselves

The possibility of organizing the supply of Turkmen gas to Europe has been discussed for many years. Now, this issue has risen in a new light, not only because the current situation has dramatically increased demand for any new sources of gas on the European continent, but also, as we have noted because the integration of Turkic states has reached a new level.

Experts agree that it is possible to build a gas pipeline across the Caspian Sea. The Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, signed in 2018, facilitates the approval procedure, but in fact, it has removed barriers to the construction of the pipeline, since from now on countries not participating in such a project (for example, Russia, Iran or Kazakhstan) can object, but will not be able to block construction.

Immediately after this convention was signed in August 2018, discussions of the project to build the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline from Turkmenistan intensified. Given that Turkmenistan's gas reserves are considered one of the largest in the world, Ashgabat has begun to be declared a "real competitor" to Moscow in the European gas market. But neutral Turkmenistan was hardly ever inclined to get involved in such games. Moreover, one should not overestimate the degree of the hostility of the Russian side to such projects - the question is in the willingness of their authors to find a compromise with Moscow. Russian experts, for example, at the time generally believed that "the opening of the possibility of building a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan is a kind of a pass from Moscow to the European Union, from which Russia is waiting to remove all obstacles to its project - Nord Stream-2.

Moreover, at about the same time, in 2018, it was possible to launch the Azerbaijani project Southern Gas Corridor. It is well-known that gas went to Italy and when German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Baku, she noted that "Azerbaijan is a strong factor in the energy diversification of the European Union and the opening of the Southern Gas Corridor will play a great role in supplying Europe with energy". It did not lead to a confrontation between Baku and Moscow - the Azerbaijani side took care of the diplomatic support for the project on time and carried out work in Moscow.

There are no insurmountable difficulties with the projects of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Türkiye in the non-gas sector. Of course, as experts note, "logistics capabilities in the Caspian Sea are severely limited," there are not enough infrastructure and vessels even to increase the flow of conventional cargo. But it is a question of investments for which Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, as well as Türkiye and Kazakhstan, and many external investors will find the money. And money will come because it is through the Caspian that cargo flows between Europe and Asia will go when they can no longer go through Eastern Europe and Russia, which have been plunged into a bloody conflict and disconnection for many years.

But, of course, it is not just about the Caspian Sea - it makes sense to work for the future all along the new route from Asia to Europe through Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan-Türkiye. Therefore, the President of Azerbaijan has raised the issue of two other transport routes that would facilitate the operation of trunk roads between the three countries and even huge regions. First is the Zangazur corridor, and according to him "40 percent of the works on the railway line and 70 percent on the highway have been completed in the section of the Zangazur corridor on the territory of Azerbaijan. All works are expected to be completed in 2024, leading to the establishment of a new transport corridor". Secondly, it is the already operating Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad, the throughput capacity of which should be increased fivefold after Azerbaijan invests another $100 million in the development of this highway. Given the dynamics of the traffic flows, it is unclear how Yerevan hopes to leave the communication routes blocked, because soon it will have to deal not only with Baku and Ankara but also with the serious interests of many countries, from China to the EU.

And the first signs of a growing, powerful flow are already visible. On December 3, the first freight train from Türkiye arrived in the Uzbek capital, Tashkent, passing through Iran and Turkmenistan. For now, this train will run twice a month. This is the beginning of the implementation of agreements reached at the November 11 summit of the Organization of Turkic States in Samarkand. But the objectives were also set there concerning the "straightening" of such routes by eliminating the "hooks" around Armenia as well as continuing the routes in all directions. Recall that paragraph 35 of the Samarkand Declaration calls for "supporting the efforts of the member-states to open as soon as possible the Zangazur corridor, to increase the capacity of the railway line Baku-Tbilisi-Kars, the construction of Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-China and Termez-Mazar-e-Sharif-Kabul-Peshavar lines which will promote the connection and diversification of transport communications between Europe and Asia".

Not pulling chestnuts out of the fire for global players

It should be noted that the deepening cooperation of Turkic countries in general and agreements of the recent summit, in particular, are not aimed at building some anti-Russian "buffer zone" in the style of Eastern Europe. Yes, they take into account the current realities and respond to them, but this is not a "friendship against someone" and not a willingness to play a role in the global plans of Western imperialism. It is the assertion of rights of the peoples of their countries to determine their own destiny and build their future independently, not within the framework of the plans invented for them in Brussels, Moscow, or Washington.

Participants of the Turkmenbashi summit clearly marked their policy of building cooperation without confrontation with neighboring states and keeping dialogue with them. That is why on the eve of the summit Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov visited Moscow. Although the official theme was "the situation in Afghanistan" and the whole region, everything that is known about the event indicates that economic issues were discussed and everything was done in a positive way. Lavrov called Turkmenistan "a close friend, a strategic partner" and recalled that Turkmen and Russian presidents Serdar Berdymukhamedov and Vladimir Putin met five times this year on different occasions.

Moreover, Azerbaijan starts implementing new projects without confronting Russia. As for the transit issues, Moscow is rather interested in Baku's favorable attitude. For example, on October 28 at the Eurasian Forum in Baku first deputy prime minister of the Russian government Andrey Belousov announced a project of the joint railway operator Russia-Azerbaijan-Iran on the western route of international transport corridor North-South (from Russia through the Caucasus to Iran and further to India and other countries). The railroad in this direction is underdeveloped, and while the Russia-Azerbaijan link is quite active, the freight flow across the Azerbaijani border with Iran does not exceed 500,000 tons. The alternative option - using Armenian communications depends on the settlement of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations, this is another reason for the Kremlin to draw a line under Karabakh separatism.

Turkic integration as an alternative

Some foreign opponents of the Turkic integration and the current political course of Azerbaijan like to talk about the "Turanian" motive in the Turkic integration, alluding to racism. They are not confused by the fact that the modern Turkic integration in general is concentrated around cooperation projects which are transparent in their logic, rather than a mythical "call of blood" (at least, at the level of officials). These projects are not closed to non-Turkic peoples - Georgia and Hungary participate in them, and there are talks about the more active involvement of Russia, China, and other countries. In fact, Armenia is also invited to participate in such cooperation - as the example of Georgia shows, which even conducts military exercises with Azerbaijan and Türkiye, this is a productive choice.

By the way, compare this Turkic integration format with the so-called European integration, which some Armenian politicians so dream of. "In fact, Türkiye is not allowed into Europe on equal terms under a thousand pretexts, and Armenia is destined to the same fate. There, the belt of cooperation and membership is being built under conditions of unconditional and unquestioning acceptance of EU norms by the countries. And in contrast to the West-European countries that joined the union demanding the conditions they needed, the "new Europeans" from the East of the continent are offered to join only under the condition of full material and moral disarmament before Brussels. Stubbornness is punished, as the examples of Poland and Hungary show.

By the way, the historical "Turanian" cooperation of Turkic states also clearly does not have such a bunch of racist connotations as "European" integration. Europeanness is clearly linked to the past of the European states, which got rich from the colonial robbery of half the world, and even all the Turkic states taken together do not have as many sins on their souls as even one prominent European power has. And the serious problems of Armenians inside the Ottoman Empire are connected exactly with the spread of nationalistic ideas which came from Europe - with their immanent racism. Before that, Armenians were not just a part of the empire, but their representatives were part of its establishment.

In conclusion, it is worth mentioning that there is no aggressive expansionist or revanchist plan behind the Turkic integration as these countries refuse to be at one with Russia against the West and its allies and at one with the West against Russia or PRC. Therefore, cooperation initiated by Turkic states looks more inclusive, peaceful, and, let's not be afraid of this word, more civilized than Western integration projects.