"Further processes in the South Caucasus depend on the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war" Blitz interview with expert Pavel Danilin

Caliber.Az presents the blitz interview with Pavel Danilin, General Director of the Centre for Political Analysis and Social Research, a Russian political scientist and publicist.

- How would you assess the current stage of the normalisation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, given the talks in Moscow, Washington, and Brussels?

- Today, the normalisation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations is conditioned by whether Russia will be able to insist on its position in the conflict with Ukraine. That is, if it can, then relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan will consequently be more adequate. Otherwise, the negotiations will stall rather quickly.

- Even if the sides come close to a peace treaty?

- A peace treaty seems to loom somewhere on the horizon, but it is clear that both sides can escalate at any time. For example, Azerbaijan, if it decides that some of the requirements outlined in the agreements are not fulfilled by Yerevan. And the reason for aggravation on the Armenian side remains the serious revanchist sentiments in Armenia itself.

- Can Armenia's foreign policy course change in the future - say, even in the next few years? I am referring to the likelihood of its final breakaway from Russia, with the condition that it leaves the CSTO and the EAEU.

- Once again, Armenia's foreign policy course is entirely dependent on the outcome of a "special military operation" (inverted commas - Ed.). If it is successful, there will be no change in Yerevan's course towards the West. If the "SSO" is not successful enough, Armenia may well end up detaching itself from Russia and subordinating it to the U.S., especially since there are interested parties there.

- How would you comment on the refusal of Armenia to give control functions to Russia at the border and checkpoints at the entrance and exit to the Zangazur corridor?

- In my opinion, this is quite an obvious probing of the ground on possibilities and borders. I believe that such a step is not in Yerevan's interests, so, if the Armenian side understands this, it will probably stop torpedoing the trilateral agreements.

- How do you see the future processes in the South Caucasus, particularly the likelihood of Georgia and Russia getting closer in the foreseeable future?

- As I have already said, all the processes taking place in the South Caucasus depend on the outcome of the "SMO". As for the rapprochement between Russia and Georgia, it seems to me that in the case of a positive scenario for Russia in the Ukrainian conflict, this probability can be assessed as slightly above average.

- How long do you think the war in Ukraine will last?

- It is difficult to answer this question...

- Has the probability of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons increased to date?

- I think so, yes. It has increased.