How does Ukraine war threaten Moldova's stability? Elections as a destabilisation tool

The geopolitical environment in Europe has irreversibly changed after more than a year of military aggression carried out by Russia against Ukraine. During this period, the EU introduced ten sanctions packages against Russia. Moreover, the sanctions and ongoing invasion explicitly heightened Moscow’s relations with other post-Soviet states, including Moldova.

Since February, Russia-Moldova ties appeared increasingly strained after President Maia Sandu blamed Moscow for plotting to overthrow her country’s government by force to derail its aspirations of joining the European Union (EU). Although Moscow denied the allegations, it triggered fears that Moldova could be the next Russian target after Ukraine.

The Ukraine war and the presence of Russian troops in close areas of the Moldovan borders have worried Chisinau and some international experts that they will not be able to organise an effective resistance against Russia. Unlike Ukraine, Moldova has a weak military comparable to Transnistria's forces. Moldova's active military personnel amounts to 6,000 soldiers, who likely do not have the ability to fend off Russian troops successfully.

Sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, Moldova has often been at the centre of a struggle between Moscow and the West. In this vein, Russian state media accused Moldova of pushing an anti-Russian agenda to ignite the situation more and turn the country strictly towards the EU.

The new Moldovan government, established in February 2023 and led by Prime Minister Dorin Recean, vowed to continue on the pro-EU path of the country, which was granted EU candidate status in June 2022. However, pro-Russian groups reacted by protesting against the newly formed government and arranged a series of protests in major cities.

Notably, breaking down the complex dynamic among Moldova, Russia and the breakaway region Transnistria is useful in understanding Russia’s military interests beyond Ukraine. Transnistria has always been a critical point for Russia to retain its influence in this region and keep Moldova at a close distance.

Thanks to the Russian military contingent deployed in the region for more than two decades, Moscow maintained security leverage enabling it to destabilise the region quickly. The presence of Russian troops in Transnistria prevents Moldova from fully controlling its own borders. Without border and territorial control, Moldova cannot join the EU. This is one of the conditions for EU membership.

Given that critical point, Russia actively seeks new ways of destabilising the fragile situation in Moldova to distract the West with a recent standoff in the immediate neighbourhood. Therefore, very recently rising internal tensions in Moldova's autonomous Gagauzia region can be seen as Russia's extended policy of destabilisation. Indeed, Russia is believed to be trying to turn Gagauzia into Moldova’s weak point and the centre of instability for the entire country.

The most recent tensions in the region began when the pro-Russian Ilan Shor Party’s candidate, Evghenia Gutul, won the elections and received 52.39 per cent of the votes, while her opponent Grigori Uzun, supported by the pro-Russian Socialist Party, got 47.61 per cent of the votes. However, notwithstanding the election results, the central Moldovan government is reluctant to confirm Gutul’s victory amid rising anti-Russian sentiments in the country.

Despite resistance, it is unlikely that Chisinau will be able to annul the results, as no major violations were reported during the elections. Consequently, Moldova’s present pro-European administration has embraced a pessimistic approach toward Gagauzia, asserting that their lack of engagement in the region is due to their inability to counteract three decades of Russian propaganda.

Elections and a weak military are not Moldova's only vulnerabilities, as the country has also been dependent on Russian fossil fuel exports until recently. In December 2022, for the first time, Moldova started importing natural gas from international markets, mainly from Romania. Before 2022, Moldova was 100% dependent on Russian gas, which made it difficult for Moldova to escape Moscow’s orbit, despite its pro-European political orientation.

With the growing Moscow-Chisinau diplomatic standoff, anti-Russian sentiments in Moldova will likely rise amid the devastating war in Ukraine. As in the case of Russia, Moscow will boost attempts to secure leverage over Moldova by interfering in the internal process in Gagauzia and using its proxy groups within Moldova.