How Myanmar earthquake opened diplomatic doors for isolated junta?

After Myanmar was hit by a powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake on March 28, junta leader Gen. Min Aung Hlaing made a rare appeal for international aid. This marked a departure from past military regimes that typically rejected foreign assistance. The disaster caused nearly 4,000 deaths and over 5,000 injuries, prompting rescue efforts from China, India, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN.

More than just the scale of the devastation drove the junta’s appeal for aid, as an article by World Politics Review argues that the earthquake came as the regime was desperately seeking international legitimacy and support to reinforce its weakened grip on power following years of battlefield losses to resistance forces.

This outreach comes as Myanmar’s neighbours also seek stability and renewed diplomatic engagement following years of stalled efforts to resolve the conflict triggered by the 2021 coup, which ousted the democratically elected NLD government.

The earthquake created a politically viable opening for engagement with the junta. ASEAN, with Malaysia acting as chair in 2025, has already initiated moves toward re-engagement. In mid-April, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim met Min Aung Hlaing in Bangkok alongside former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, marking a significant diplomatic thaw. This reflects a broader shift in regional diplomacy: acknowledging the junta as a necessary actor to deal with, despite the lack of legitimacy and continued repression.

Relations between the junta and regional powers China and India have also improved. China, once wary, now supports the junta more openly after having previously tolerated rebel offensives. In late 2023, members of the China-linked Three Brotherhood Alliance launched Operation 1027, capturing large areas of Shan State, including Lashio. But fearing state collapse and threats to its infrastructure projects, China has reversed course, pressuring rebels to cease fighting, even cutting off trade, utilities, and internet access to rebel territories. This pressure led to a ceasefire and may soon see Lashio handed back to the junta in a deal brokered by Beijing.

China now appears to view the junta as crucial for securing its strategic projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, such as planned pipelines and a railway linking China to the Indian Ocean. This has led Beijing to reduce support for rebel factions and strengthen ties with the junta, viewing Min Aung Hlaing’s continued rule as key to long-term regional stability.

India, while less active than China, has also resumed limited engagement with the junta. Last June, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar urged Myanmar to protect Indian investments, especially in volatile Rakhine State. Just after the earthquake, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Min Aung Hlaing at a regional summit—their first encounter since the coup. Modi emphasized the need for credible, inclusive elections and stressed that Myanmar’s crisis could not be resolved militarily.

India’s concerns largely stem from Myanmar’s growing closeness with China and the need to maintain peace along their shared 1,600-kilomteres border. Like China, New Delhi has come to accept the junta as the key actor on the ground, viewing engagement as necessary to safeguard its own strategic interests and provide a counterweight to China and Russia’s influence in Myanmar.

The earthquake response—driven mainly by ASEAN, China, and India—underscores a regional willingness to engage the junta pragmatically. Western powers, once central to Myanmar’s development aid, have largely withdrawn. The US, especially since Donald Trump’s presidency, has stepped back, while Europe remains hesitant to channel aid through the military regime.

This disengagement by the West has left Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement feeling increasingly isolated. While international attention is focused on crises like Ukraine, it is clear that only committed regional powers are currently shaping events in Myanmar. This reality leaves both the junta and the people of Myanmar with limited external options for resolving the ongoing crisis.

By Nazrin Sadigova