NI: Ukraine peace vital to ending US reliance on China’s rare earths

The only viable near-term way for the United States to reduce its reliance on China’s dominance in rare earth minerals is to end the ongoing war in Ukraine and establish a new partnership with Russia for rare earth production.

Russia, a commodities superpower sitting on vast rare earth deposits, has aggressively developed its capacity to make its economy self-sustaining and ensure global dependence on its resources—unlike the US, which has not built a new rare earth mine or refinery since the 1970s, Caliber.Az reports, citing The National Interest (NI).

“If Trump plays his cards right, he can cut new development deals with Russia in no time at all,” analysts say. However, the main barrier remains the conflict in Ukraine, making a successful peace agreement more urgent than ever.

When running for re-election in 2024, Donald Trump pledged to end the Ukraine War “on his first day in office,” a promise many regarded as unrealistic.

Yet, hopes persisted that he would ease tensions and seek peace early in his administration. Instead, critics argue the conflict has expanded under his leadership.

The Biden administration’s full support for Ukraine was initially presented as aligned with America’s core interests and not detrimental to other priorities. Yet the current crisis with China reveals otherwise.

Due to Beijing’s control over most of the world’s rare earth supply, the US has had to temper its trade war stance, illustrating how the Ukraine War no longer serves American strategic interests.

Ukraine has agreed to allow the US to develop its rare earth deposits, but most of these lie in territory currently controlled by Russia and are unlikely to be returned through either war or peace negotiations.

“Therefore, the United States, because of its obvious weakness in the critical rare earth mineral market, must learn to play nice with Moscow. There is simply no alternative,” the report states.

Earlier in Trump’s second term, Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and a close ally of Vladimir Putin, visited Washington to discuss detailed proposals for joint rare earth development between the two nations.

This partnership would allow the US to diversify its rare earth supply, weakening China’s monopoly on the global market. While Russia remains a strategic competitor in certain areas, it “would love nothing more than to weaken China’s grip” by increasing American demand for its resources.

Such cooperation could also bolster Russia’s position against what it perceives as China’s excessive attitude towards the Kremlin.

Meanwhile, the alternative—building a fully indigenous US rare earth mining and refining sector—remains a long-term endeavour hindered by domestic politics and regulatory challenges.

By Aghakazim Guliyev