Germany warns hybrid attacks could signal new war, confidential plan shows

Germany’s military planners are warning that cyberattacks, sabotage and disinformation campaigns could mark the opening phase of a future war, according to a confidential government document seen by POLITICO.

The assessment is contained in the Operational Plan for Germany (OPLAN), a blueprint detailing how Berlin would organise the defence of its territory in the event of a major NATO conflict. The document reflects a significant shift in German security thinking as Russia has become increasingly confrontational toward European NATO members following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago.

According to OPLAN, so-called hybrid measures — including cyber operations and influence campaigns — should no longer be viewed as background pressure, but as actions that “can fundamentally serve to prepare a military confrontation.” The plan places such activities firmly within the logic of military escalation.

This assessment carries concrete implications for Germany’s role in any future conflict. The document frames the country as a critical operational base and transit corridor for NATO forces, making it vulnerable early in a crisis. Germany’s central position in alliance logistics and reinforcement planning would, planners warn, place it under immediate pressure.

The 24-page document is described as a “light version” of OPLAN and is intended to coordinate civilian and military actors, defining Germany’s responsibilities as a hub for allied troop movements. In a conflict scenario, the plan states, Germany would become “a prioritized target of conventional attacks with long-range weapon systems,” aimed at both military and civilian infrastructure.

OPLAN outlines a five-phase escalation model, ranging from early threat detection and deterrence to national defence, NATO collective defence and post-conflict recovery. The document notes that Germany is currently operating in the first phase, focusing on building a shared threat assessment, improving coordination across government and preparing logistics and protection measures.

The plan also significantly expands the role of domestic military forces. Homeland security units would be responsible for protecting critical infrastructure, securing troop movements across German territory and supporting the functioning of the state while combat forces are deployed elsewhere.

Civilian structures are treated as essential to military success. Transport networks, energy supplies, healthcare services and private-sector contractors are repeatedly cited as critical enablers. “Numerous tasks require civilian support,” the document states, warning that without it the plan cannot be implemented.

The warnings come amid a surge in hybrid threats facing Germany and its allies. Federal authorities have documented rising levels of Russian espionage, cyberattacks and influence operations targeting political institutions, critical infrastructure and public opinion. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has described Germany as a “daily target of hybrid warfare,” language that closely mirrors the scenarios outlined in OPLAN.

By Vugar Khalilov