Polish security chief downplays imminent threat of potential Russia attack on Europe

Lieutenant General Dariusz Łukowski, the outgoing head of Poland’s National Security Bureau, has expressed skepticism about recent warnings that Russia and China could launch a coordinated military attack on Europe within the next 18 months.

Commenting on remarks made by NATO's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, who suggested that the US and EU have limited time to prepare for such a scenario, Łukowski said In an interview with Rzeczpospolita, that he believed the threat was “exaggerated,” Caliber.Az reports.

According to him, the alarm stems from a combination of strategic and political motivations, including pressure on European allies to bolster military readiness and a shift in US defence priorities toward the Indo-Pacific region.

Łukowski noted that branches like the USAir Force, Navy, and Marines are gaining greater prominence in Asia, while land forces—traditionally more engaged in Europe—are receiving less focus. He suggested that highlighting external threats may serve as a way to justify defence spending and troop deployments in Europe.

While acknowledging that the long-term risk of conflict remains high, Łukowski stated there is no immediate danger of a large-scale war breaking out in Europe. He argued that Russia’s current involvement in Ukraine, coupled with ongoing challenges in recruitment and military modernisation, makes it unlikely that Moscow could launch a broader offensive in the near future.

Asked how long Russia would need to restore its full military capacity after the war in Ukraine ends, Łukowski estimated it would take two to three years. However, he did not dismiss the possibility of strategic coordination between Russia and China, stating that in this respect, he shares the concerns of some defence analysts.

By Sabina Mammadli