Is Armenia’s departure from the CIS imminent? Experts weigh in on Pashinyan’s strategy

"I see tremendous pressure from the West on Armenian partners, prompting them to take an anti-Russian stance in some cases or to curtail their cooperation within the CIS," Secretary General of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Sergei Lebedev said recently, answering a question from News.ru on the sidelines of the Primakov Readings scientific forum.

Lebedev added that "It is with great regret that I state that Armenia has recently stopped participating in many CIS forums. In my opinion, this is bad for the CIS, I say this as the secretary general. But many experts recognize that this is bad for Armenia as well."

So, can we expect Armenia to leave the CIS? What does such a development bode for Armenia? Will it not affect Armenia's ties with post-Soviet countries - political, transportation, economic, humanitarian - for the worse?

Foreign political commentators answered these questions for Caliber.Az.

Kyrgyz political expert, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor Askar Dzhakishev noted that today the foreign policy of Pashinyan and his supporters is in a situation of zugzwang: whatever decisions they make, the result will be a failure for the existence of this government.

"Finding himself in a stalemate situation, Pashinyan is trying to play on two boards at once, establishing contacts with Paris and in general with the collective West, including in the military-technical sphere, thus angering Russia, which is concerned about the weakening of its foreign policy positions in the southern direction.

For the sake of its political survival, the Pashinyan government is studying the pros and cons of Armenia's future outside the CIS framework, bearing in mind that Paris and the collective West are actively promoting such a foreign policy U-turn by Yerevan. Given that Armenian society as a whole is divided into supporters of keeping the country within the CIS and supporters of moving towards the West, this circumstance forces the Pashinyan government to balance between these two poles, delaying the final decision as long as possible," Dzhakishiev is convinced. 

For his part, Nurlan Munbaev, professor of econometrics, member of the New York Academy of Sciences, expert of the Kazakhstan Parliamentarism Foundation, says that the issue here concerns Armenia's future within the CIS.

"CIS Secretary General Sergey Lebedev expressed regret that Armenia has stopped actively participating in CIS forums. He believes that this is bad both for the CIS and for Armenia itself. In my opinion, Armenia's withdrawal from the CIS can have various consequences. On the one hand, it may affect Armenia's political, transportation, economic and humanitarian ties with other CIS countries. On the other hand, Armenia can continue to develop its relations with other countries such as Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, which are also members of the CIS.

However, it should be taken into account that Armenia already has close ties with these countries outside the CIS, and its political, transportation, economic and humanitarian ties with them do not depend much on its participation in the CIS. Thus, Armenia's withdrawal from the CIS may have a limited impact on its ties with other countries," the professor believes.

Overall, the situation with Armenia's participation in the CIS is complex and requires further discussion and negotiations among the CIS member states, Munbaev concluded.