Israel-Hamas war complicates Western support to Ukraine More weapons for sustainable peace

U.S. President Joe Biden is preparing to host European leaders Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen in the White House at a summit set to deliver a message of unity on conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine. As fighting rages on in Ukraine, Israel’s war against Hamas, the armed group that rules Gaza, threatens to spill over across the Middle East.

Drawing parallels between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Hamas’s assault, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that “these two crises, however different, call on Europe and America to take a stand together” in order to “shelter our democracies”.

The inflaming tensions between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, with the rising death tolls among Palestinians, stirred anti-Israeli protests in the West and Arab countries, prompting antisemitism slogans.

Despite criticism of leading Arab countries, Western countries such as the U.S., the United Kingdom, France, and Germany expressed vocal support for Israel's war against Hamas militants in Gaza. As a result, the international community's attention is fully caught by the events in Gaza and recent terrorist attacks on Israeli southern territories.

Amid the shift of the focus to Israel, many in Ukraine became worried about the prospects of continuous Western support in the ongoing Russian invasion. Just four days before the Ukrainian president visited Brussels, Hamas militants had launched a surprise attack on Israel, which then responded with air strikes.

Zelenskyy was cautious about not appearing as though he was competing for attention while showing empathy for Israelis who had lost loved ones in the attacks and drawing parallels between his war and theirs.

Indeed, Ukraine needs more intensive support from the West amid its ongoing counter-offensive on the frontline. However, many argue that the current stalemate in Kyiv's counter-offensive may have caused mixed sentiments among Western partners as the initial forecast about the operation was more optimistic.

For Ukraine, its allies’ patience is being tested as the conflict drags on into another winter and domestic political concerns shift. Nevertheless, The U.K. and France have recently supplied Ukraine with powerful cruise missiles, while Germany is balking doing the same. Kyiv several times held negotiations with Berlin to acquire Taurus long-range missiles.

The Taurus missiles have been the subject of extensive discussion and debate, with much of the German hesitation stemming from the prospect of the missiles being used within Russia's territory. Moreover, according to military experts, Ukraine would need more geodata for launching Taurus and training Ukrainian soldiers on the process takes more time because it is more sophisticated.

Hence, Ukrainians now wonder if the world has the attention span and courage to focus on two major wars. Once in 2014, Ukraine went through a campaign of ignorance, resulting in Crimea's annexation and fierce clashes in eastern Ukraine.

Between 2015 and 2022, Russia cemented its grip on Crimea and the occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and began preparing for its full-scale invasion. For Ukraine, there is a real risk that a conflict in the Middle East diverts Western attention — and with that, the military and economic support needed to continue its fight.

In addition to the diplomatic aspect, the current Israel-Hamas war and Russo-Ukraine war are witnessing the use of technologies that are, in one case, reasonably advanced. Consequently, Kyiv and Tel Aviv need to employ modern warfare tactics with the usage of modern defence technologies to ensure superiority on the battlefield. Unlike Tel Aviv, Kyiv needs such technologies more than any country at this time.

Moreover, Israel’s most urgent needs are air-launched precision-guided munitions and interceptor replenishments for its Iron Dome system — and there is no competition between Israel and Ukraine worth mentioning for those capabilities. Therefore, President Biden said he would send an ''urgent budget request'' to Congress, referring to a reported $100 billion bill that would include around $60 billion for Ukraine and approximately $10 billion for Israel.

Even though the West will not terminate its support to Ukraine in light of critical operations, it may not supply Kyiv with lethal weapons the latter asked for. Seemingly, Israel’s network of friends in the West conducts more effective work on pressuring local governments to demonstrate strong commitment, while Ukraine lags behind such trends.