Media: Iran threatens "decisive reaction" to rising Israeli military engagements

Iran has vowed a "decisive reaction" to Israel's actions against its allies throughout the region, yet it appears Tehran has severely underestimated the extent of Israel's willingness to engage in military confrontation.

As Israel conducts multi-faceted assaults, Iranian officials may be questioning whether their nuclear sites, viewed as the most significant threat to Israel, could be the next target, Caliber.Az reports via Sky News.

In recent developments, Hezbollah has warned Israel, stating, "we are ready" for a ground invasion, as unspoken rules that previously deterred direct Israeli action against Iran have seemingly been discarded.

The assassination of Hezbollah's leader in Lebanon, the dismantling of much of Hamas, and extensive airstrikes against Houthi positions in Yemen have contributed to this shift in the regional power dynamic.

Israeli forces are preparing for a potential ground incursion into Lebanon, aiming to inflict substantial damage on Hezbollah, which serves as Iran's most vital ally in the region. The rapid progression of these events makes it challenging to foresee the next steps. However, Iran's priority will likely be to restore its deterrent capability—though it may already be too late.

Israel's current actions seem intended to fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Middle East, undermining Tehran's "axis of resistance," which comprises various armed groups funded, equipped, and trained by Iran.

On September 29, the Iranian president condemned Israeli attacks against Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, promising a response without clarifying the form it might take.

"We cannot accept such actions and they will not be left unanswered," Masoud Pezeshkian stated.

In contemplating its next move, Tehran is likely reflecting on its earlier reaction to an Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate in Damascus in April. At that time, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel, but the majority were intercepted by Israeli air defences, supported by the US, UK, and other allies. Following this event, Israel was advised to "take the win" and refrain from excessive retaliation, which it largely adhered to, thus avoiding an uncontrolled escalation.

However, just three months later, tensions escalated once again when Israel assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, a prominent Hamas leader, while he was in Tehran. This provocation raised expectations for Iranian retaliation, which have yet to materialise, leading to speculation that Israel may have been emboldened to breach further red lines — culminating in the recent killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, on September 27.

Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, commented on Iran's historical approach to avoid escalating to a direct war with Israel, stating,

"But it seems to have badly miscalculated how much risk the Israelis - and Netanyahu in particular - are willing to take after 7 October, given the shock that produced in Israel and the level of threat it created."

He added, "The so-called axis of resistance is meant to be a deterrent to attacks on Iran. But Iran probably won't risk direct war on behalf of its partners. So while a ground incursion into Lebanon would be difficult, the Israelis might pay the cost if they can deal a generational blow to Hezbollah. And many will argue, given the loss of its leadership and its communications problems, if not now, then when?"

This raises a pivotal question: if Israel can deliver such a significant blow, will it then possess the capacity and confidence to focus its military efforts directly on its primary adversary, Iran?

By Aghakazim Guliyev