Shinawatra-clan's rule over Thailand slips as military regains ground following PM's suspension

Two years after Thailand returned to civilian governance following a decade of military-led rule, the political balance is once again tilting toward the armed forces, analysts say.

This shift accelerated after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s personal attempt to defuse a long-standing border conflict with Cambodia misfired, when a leaked audio recording of her call with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen stirred public backlash.

On July 2, Thailand’s Constitutional Court suspended Paetongtarn, making her the third member of the influential Shinawatra family—dominant in Thai politics for two decades—to be removed before completing a full term.

In the 17-minute recording, Paetongtarn criticized the Thai commander of the second army region for obstructing resolution of the dispute, which reportedly enraged hardline generals, according to Thai military intelligence sources.

Seeking to mend ties, Paetongtarn met with top military leaders, including the eastern army commander and chiefs of the army, air force, navy, and supreme command. These moves were intended to demonstrate that “the government and the military were walking in the same steps,” a military insider told Nikkei Asia.

Nonetheless, her actions underscored how the Pheu Thai-led government’s advantage over the military, established after the 2023 elections, has been eroded.

“Hun Sen understands that the government and military are not entirely united in Thailand,” said Sanit Nakajitti, director of PSA Asia, a Bangkok-based political risk consultancy. “By leaking the recorded call, it was aimed to incite further unrest between Thailand’s government and the military and ignite calls for House dissolution, Paetongtarn’s resignation or a military coup,” he told Nikkei Asia.

Diplomats in Bangkok view the current turbulence as part of a long-running political standoff between the pro-democracy parties led by the Shinawatras and Thailand’s entrenched ultra-royalist and military-aligned establishment.

Paetongtarn’s misstep also highlighted unresolved tensions between her administration and the military, which has refused to back a civilian candidate for defence minister or deputy prime minister for security. Civilian defence ministers chosen by Pheu Thai have “won little respect among the top brass,” according to a military intelligence source.

"This has become a pattern in Thai politics... a part of the Thai political culture, which is not what a true political process is supposed to be," said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political science lecturer at Ubon Ratchathani University, in a conversation with BBC.

The suspension by court order shouldn't have happened, but most people could see its legitimacy because the leaked conversation really made people question if the PM was genuinely defending the interest of the country."

With Paetongtarn sidelined, the deputy prime minister will act as Thailand’s interim leader. However, she will remain in the cabinet as culture minister—a new role formalised just hours before her suspension.

On July 1, Paetongtarn again apologised, stating her call with Hun Sen was “more than 100%... for the country.” At 38, she remains Thailand’s youngest-ever prime minister and only the second woman to hold the post, after her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra.

By Nazrin Sadigova