Caribbean on alert: Hurricane Erin forecast to intensify into major storm

Hurricane Erin intensified on August 15 as it moved across the Atlantic, threatening the Caribbean with heavy rainfall, particularly in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

According to the US National Hurricane Centre (NHC), cited by US media, as of 0000 GMT, Erin’s maximum sustained winds had reached 85 miles per hour (137 kilometres per hour). The storm was located approximately 310 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, an area that includes the US and British Virgin Islands.

Erin, the first hurricane of this year’s Atlantic season, is expected to bring heavy rain to the region. The NHC warned of isolated flash flooding, urban flooding, landslides, and mudslides. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Anguilla, St. Martin, St. Barthelmy, and surrounding islands.

“Steady to rapid strengthening is expected over the next few days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend,” the NHC said. Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Bahamas lie along the southern edge of the storm’s projected path. Isolated areas could receive as much as six inches (15 centimetres) of rain.

The NHC also cautioned that swells generated by Erin will affect parts of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, likely creating life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. The hurricane is forecast to turn northward by late August 17. While forecasters are confident Erin will stay well offshore from the US coast, dangerous waves and coastal erosion could still occur in areas such as North Carolina.

Meteorologists predict that this Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November, will be more active than normal. Last year, the region suffered from several powerful storms, including Hurricane Helene, which killed more than 200 people in the southeastern United States.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which operates the NHC, has faced budget cuts and staff reductions under President Donald Trump’s plans to shrink the federal bureaucracy, raising concerns about potential gaps in storm forecasting.

Scientists also note that climate change, particularly rising sea surface temperatures from fossil fuel emissions, has increased both the likelihood of stronger storms and the speed at which they intensify.

By Tamilla Hasanova