"Some EU countries view the South Caucasus through the Armenian prism" Interview with Janusz Bugajski

In an interview with Caliber.Az, Janusz Bugajski, a Polish-American researcher at the Jamestown Foundation and expert on Eastern Europe, spoke about the Azerbaijan-EU energy cooperation, the normalisation of ties with Armenia, as well as on the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Azerbaijan is becoming a very significant energy partner of the European Union. This is extremely important given the EU's refusal of Russian energy resources. However, in return, Azerbaijan encounters the biased position of the European Parliament and France which support Armenia. What is that? Double standards? And how to fight them?

- Azerbaijan is more than a growing energy power for Europe, it is evolving into a key strategic player in the South Caucasus and Caspian Basin. Unfortunately, several EU countries are still stuck in the past and view the region through an Armenian or Russian prism, especially those states which have very active Armenian lobbies. Azerbaijan needs to be much more active to advocate for its geostrategic importance and needs to work closely with EU member states from Central Eastern Europe who can highlight its pro-Western policies, its important links with Central Asia, and its determination to resist pressure from Russia and Iran.

What is your estimate of the Russia-Ukraine war? Will the West step back from its current pace of support for Ukraine?

- Russia’s attack on Ukraine has not only exposed its military failures, it has also revealed that Russia is an anachronistic imperial and colonial state whose rupture will accelerate as it loses the war. The invasion of Ukraine has unearthed Russia’s multiple weaknesses, including a contracting economy that is increasingly squeezed by international sanctions, over-dependence on energy revenues which will plummet largely because of the loss of the European market, military losses that highlight the incompetence and corruption of Russia’s ruling elite, and growing opposition to regime policy among various sectors of the elite. Western military assistance to Kyiv is not weakening as the war enters a decisive phase in Ukraine’s occupied territories. Ultimately, no Russian military contingent should be allowed to remain on Ukrainian territory, or it will continue to create problems just as it has in the still-occupied territories of Azerbaijan.

Brussels and Washington have intensified their efforts on the Armenia-Azerbaijan regulation. But there is also the Moscow negotiating platform. In your opinion, which moderator has a higher chance of making progress?

- A final peace deal between Baku and Yerevan will be a major victory for the region and another major defeat for Russia. Moscow has spent the past thirty-five years maintaining a conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia in order to pose as a mediator and to implant its military in both countries. Armenia has a unique opportunity to free itself from its dependence on Moscow and establish productive relations with its key neighbours – Türkiye and Azerbaijan. This will be a gateway toward international investment and Western institutional integration. Moscow does not want a permanent treaty between Baku and Yerevan as this would severely diminish its imperial influences and open the door to Western integration for the entire South Caucasus region. One can expect the Kremlin to engage in various tricks to try and derail, delay, or paralyze any agreement, as it operates on the imperial principle of “divide and rule.”