Armenia's ex-foreign minister slams Pashinyan as worst negotiator in history Experts weigh in on Oskanian’s accusations

"By any objective standards, Nikol Pashinyan has proven to be the worst negotiator Armenia has ever had." This statement was made recently on Facebook by Armenia's former foreign minister, Vartan Oskanian.

"Over the six years since he came to power, every diplomatic or strategic dossier he has touched has turned to ash. Armenia, once a vibrant state, is now in a devastated state—Karabakh is lost, defense capabilities weakened, alliances broken, and the people disillusioned. This is the result of disastrously poor leadership and nearly textbook violations of all fundamental principles of rational negotiation strategy. Pashinyan's failures in negotiations are not abstract or theoretical—they are specific, deeply felt, and have catastrophic consequences in the real world."

Under his leadership, Armenia itself brought war upon itself, failed to prevent or stop it, and lost in a humiliating manner, with thousands of casualties. The ceasefire agreement was signed under pressure, and yet, even after that, he failed to ensure the implementation of provisions that would benefit Armenia. Worse still, Pashinyan effectively handed over Nagorno-Karabakh in Prague, and then washed his hands of it, paving the way for total ethnic cleansing.

The latest example of this dysfunction was Pashinyan’s acceptance of the last two elements of the so-called peace agreement, fully aware that Azerbaijan had not exhausted its demands. In fact, Baku is presenting an increasingly broad list of conditions, including the creation of an extraterritorial corridor through southern Armenia, constitutional changes that exclude any mention of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the dissolution of the Minsk Group, just to name a few," Vartan Oskanian wrote.

How can one assess the statement made by Armenia’s former foreign minister, who, during his tenure, did nothing to bring the Karabakh conflict closer to a peaceful resolution, merely simulating the negotiation process and delaying time? Does he have any right to make claims regarding the outcome of the dismal situation Armenia now finds itself in, a situation partly caused by his own actions?

Regional experts shared their opinions with Caliber.Az on this matter.

Russian political scientist and director of the Center for Strategic Studies on the South Caucasus, Yevgeny Mikhaylov, stated that there is, of course, significant political turbulence in Armenia at the moment, with all sides fighting for different segments of the electorate.

"Vartan Oskanian, who has been sidelined and moved to the opposition, now criticizes Nikol Pashinyan. But whatever he says, being a politician and the leader of Armenia is an extremely heavy burden. Pashinyan is forced to make unpopular decisions under the pressure of objective circumstances.

It is important to understand that Azerbaijan was completely right in this conflict with Armenia. Armenia was offered various solutions to the Karabakh confrontation, with conditions put forward. Yet, Oskanian did nothing at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to lead the negotiation process, to discuss the realities rather than the fantasies of the Armenian leadership regarding Karabakh. This is why Oskanian is no longer in power. Pashinyan, however, is forced to maneuver under the pressure of these circumstances and make the right decisions. Accusing Pashinyan of Azerbaijan’s pressure and its ongoing demands is pointless.

Baku already received certain guarantees in November 2020. It is moving only within the framework of those preliminary agreements, the fulfillment of which will lead to the signing of a peace treaty. Karabakh was never part of Armenia. Armenia itself never recognized Karabakh, including Oskanian when he was foreign minister. So, there is no counter-argument for the former foreign minister here," the researcher concludes.

And, accordingly, he says, Pashinyan will inevitably be forced to sign a peace agreement.

"Either there will be a confrontation, in which Baku will achieve its goals. And the demand to open the Zangezur Corridor is fair. This is the mildest demand that Baku can make. But, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised and would completely understand if this territory eventually became part of Azerbaijan, not just a corridor. And now, on the eve of the promised negotiations and the final signing of peace, voices like those of Oskanian will become more frequent. And accusations against Pashinyan of 'betraying Armenia' will also increase. Because within Armenia itself, there are plenty of nationalist, openly fascist forces that are waiting for some kind of revenge.

And revenge is impossible. Azerbaijan is ready. And again, sane politicians in Yerevan understand that Armenia, if the destabilization of the situation in the South Caucasus continues, could lose its statehood. And I think Baku is ready for any turn of events. Pashinyan will inevitably be forced to sign a peace agreement and make changes to the constitution, where the mention of Karabakh and other, so to speak, unrealistic desires of Armenia will be absent. The main thing for Armenia now is to preserve at least the territorial limits it has today. And if Pashinyan signs the peace agreement and begins to develop these territories, establishing good-neighborly relations, he will become a great leader for the Armenians. Specifically, after signing the peace agreement with Azerbaijan. That is, he could end the long-standing confrontation and build good-neighborly relations. And this will be his feat if he goes for it. This is his cross to bear, he took on the responsibility for the Armenian people, he drew Armenia into the war, and now, as a rational politician, he must turn the situation to a good outcome for the Armenian people. By signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and agreeing to all the conditions that were settled back in November 2020. These are the preliminary conditions; Baku doesn’t need anything extra.

Therefore, I think that the words and position of Vartan Oskanian do not change the current situation. Armenia is in a very difficult position. And the only way out for it is to sign a peace agreement. Then the borders will open, trade will begin, and relations with the Russian Federation will be restored, because Moscow fully supports the implementation of the peace agreement.

The situation, although not cheerful, has been influenced by Vartan Oskanian himself and those like him, and some of them are still in power, by the way. Pashinyan, despite everything, has declared to the world that the agreement will still be signed. This, of course, angers certain forces, but if Yerevan does not take this step, then the corridors will not be peaceful and will, so to speak, be returned by military means. Armenia simply has no other choice but to make peace with its neighbors and sign the agreements that will satisfy both sides," said Mikhaylov.

Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Sadaddinov initially pointed out that Vartan Oskanian served as Minister of Foreign Affairs under President Kocharyan.

"From 1998 to 2008, for 10 years, he was involved in implementing Kocharyan's foreign policy. Everyone knows who Kocharyan is and what he did in the territory of Azerbaijan in Karabakh. In this sense, Oskanian is a close associate of Kocharyan and, among other things, a participant in the war crimes committed by Kocharyan on the territory of Azerbaijan. Therefore, his current statements regarding Pashinyan serve specific objectives.

First, Vartan Oskanian is the mouthpiece for those forces we call revisionists. This includes the circles of former presidents Kocharyan and Sargsyan. These forces are controlled by external players, and their goal is to overthrow Pashinyan and seize power once again. To achieve this, they use all available means, including propaganda, accusing Pashinyan of all sins.

But here it is important to note one very significant fact. Today, Oskanian is accusing Pashinyan of actions that are a direct result of the actions of Kocharyan's team, and therefore of Oskanian himself. After all, everything that happened during the period when Pashinyan led Armenia is the result of the foolish, aggressive policies pursued by Kocharyan and his minister, Oskanian. Today, he accuses Pashinyan of surrendering to the Azerbaijani army. But it was clear to everyone back then that Azerbaijan was strengthening its economy and its armed forces. And Azerbaijan did not hide the fact that one day, it would reclaim Karabakh, based on international norms and laws. Oskanian knew this very well. But despite that, they brought the situation to what happened. And today, by accusing Pashinyan of various sins, they are simply shifting their blame onto his shoulders. This is clear.

Secondly, they are very afraid that the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is developing in a peaceful direction, and that perhaps a peace agreement will be signed soon. This fundamentally goes against their interests, because in that case, their revisionist doctrine would not allow them to overthrow Pashinyan and come to power. They understand that sooner or later, after the signing of the peace agreement, the Armenian people and the leadership of Armenia will hold these disaster-prone politicians accountable for what they have done to Armenia's relations with its neighbors in the region," the analyst believes.

Moreover, he pointed out, Oskanian himself had been involved in various corruption crimes.

"At one time, he created his personal foundation called Civilitas and collected donations worldwide. It was revealed that about 2 million dollars in donations were used for his personal interests. Such facts, of course, will come to light, and he will have to answer for them.

One can also add that during the ongoing trials in Baku against the leaders of the separatists, they are very eager to share information with the investigation about the crimes committed by those who remain outside this judicial prosecution. Perhaps Oskanian understands that sooner or later, his criminal actions committed while he held the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs will be revealed. This, of course, causes him concern. And so he has become one of the active spokespersons for the anti-Pashinyan campaign.

Accusations against Pashinyan that he is succumbing to Baku's demands are, of course, unfounded. The fact is that Azerbaijan's demands are based on international law, the UN Charter, and Armenia is unable to resist them because they are, to some extent, supported by the international community. Therefore, sooner or later, Armenia will agree to the demands put forth by Azerbaijan.

Pashinyan today is dealing with the crimes committed over decades by the teams of Kocharyan and Sargsyan, and Oskanian was among them. The interests of people like Oskanian lie in shifting all their past sins onto Pashinyan, overthrowing him, coming to power, and thus securing their future. Because sooner or later, Armenian justice or the Armenian people will hold them accountable for everything they have done," believes Sadaddinov.