Armenia on the path to the EU: When desire is not enough Experts weigh in on the realistic journey ahead

Armenian media reports that the draft law on the start of Armenia's accession process to the European Union has been approved by the parliamentary committee on European integration in the second reading. The issue is also included in the agenda of upcoming plenary sessions of the National Assembly. Meanwhile, Armenian politicians are increasingly speaking confidently about European integration, as if EU membership is already a done deal.

It seems that in Yerevan, they have genuinely believed Brussels' promises, choosing to ignore the experiences of Kyiv and Tbilisi, which undertook much more difficult paths to European integration but still remain outside the EU.

Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Paruyr Hovhannisyan stated that Yerevan is actively strengthening its ties with the European Union in the security sector. He also reminded of the two meetings of the permanent commission on European integration, which were held as part of the relevant dialogue.

In this context, a logical question arises: how realistic are Armenia's expectations regarding quick integration into the EU? Is everything that is happening merely another political game by Brussels—a game in which Yerevan is promised "golden mountains," but the real prospects remain rather vague?

Caliber.Az correspondent invited Russian and Georgian experts to comment on the situation.

Stanislav Pritchin, PhD in History, Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies, IMEMO RAN (Moscow), believes that Armenia’s situation is an example of how Yerevan is trying to present its wishes as reality.

“There is no reason to believe that Armenia could become an EU member, even in the medium term. The example of Georgia clearly illustrates the essence of Armenian dreams: the country is in a similar geographical position, in the same region, yet it has significant geopolitical advantages—primarily access to the Black Sea, and thus direct connections with Bulgaria and Romania, EU member states. Georgia started large-scale reforms as early as 2003, adapting its legislation to EU standards. However, even this did not grant it candidate status alongside Moldova and Ukraine, let alone membership in the EU.

Armenia has neither such reform experience nor geographical advantages, which makes its prospects in this direction extremely doubtful. Most likely, it is a political gesture aimed at signaling the country’s strategic vector—moving towards the West. Even the most optimistic supporters of Pashinyan, I believe, are aware of the weak realism of this course. It is more of a demonstrative move—both on the foreign policy and domestic political arenas. But the low probability of its practical implementation is something people prefer not to openly discuss,” emphasized Pritchin.

Professor, Doctor of Military and Political Sciences Vahktang Maisaia believes that, at first glance, Armenia indeed has good initial conditions for starting the integration process with the EU. However, the question of whether the country can complete this path and actually become a member of the European Union remains open. According to him, this process could take not just several years, but decades.

“Georgia has been on this path for over 20 years—since 1999, when it officially declared its foreign policy orientation towards the West, including aspirations for NATO and EU membership. But unfortunately, this movement has reached an impasse. It is possible that, in the end, Armenia may not be able to join the European Union, just as Georgia has not been able to.

In the case of cooperation with the EU, we see that everything develops according to the principle: man proposes, but God disposes. Therefore, it is not possible to talk about the inevitability of Armenia joining the EU by 2030, even considering the EU's stated openness to expansion. It is already clear that Yerevan will not meet the expected deadlines. For each country, this path is a complex, long-term combination with an unpredictable outcome, not a magical prospect with a guaranteed and quick result, as many in Armenia seem to believe,” said Vahktang Maisaia.