The Iraq – Türkiye reset Adequate partnership

On August 16, Türkiye and Iraq signed a new memorandum of understanding (MoU) on military, security, and counterterrorism cooperation. The agreement includes the creation of a Joint Security Coordination Center in Baghdad and a Joint Training and Cooperation Center in Bashiqa, Northern Iraq. The deal will likely bolster Türkiye's role in Northern Iraq's security and counterterrorism efforts, aiming to secure the groundwork for the Development Road Project announced in April 2022.

Due to the unstable situation in the region, frequent terror attacks in border areas, and the threat stemming from Ankara’s fight with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) emboldened Iraq to seek a new partnership with Türkiye to minimize the negative repercussions of new potential clashes. The Foreign Minister of Türkiye, Hakan Fidan, highlighted that Ankara and Baghdad had made significant progress in fulfilling the will demonstrated by their leaders, noting an increased awareness about the PKK terror group in Iraq.

In March 2024, as an attempt to normalize ties, the Iraqi government designated the PKK as a terrorist organization, thus admitting that it is a common threat. The PKK has led a bloody terrorism campaign against Türkiye since 1984, massacring over 40,000 people since. Labelled a terrorist organization by Türkiye, the United States, and the European Union, the PKK has strongholds in northern Iraq from where it launches attacks into Türkiye.

The new agreement is of strategic importance for Ankara as it desperately seeks to eliminate the Kurdish threat from its close vicinity in northern Iraq and Syria. The existence of Kurdish militia in the Turkish border areas has long been a source of concern for the Turkish authorities, considering the frequent infiltration of various terrorists into southern provinces to perpetrate deadly attacks against civilians.

In light of the worsening regional power dynamics, in March 2024, Türkiye announced plans to conduct a large military operation in northern Iraq against the PKK with the involvement of air forces and a large number of ground forces. Therefore, the new accord sanctions the Turkish military presence on Iraqi soil and shows that Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani's government is dealing with security issues. Moreover, the new document will add more legitimacy to Türkiye’s frequent military operations in northern Iraq, as the two neighbours have been at loggerheads many times due to Ankara's military presence on Iraqi soil. Notably, Iraq has said the operations violate its sovereignty, but Ankara says they are needed to protect itself.

As of Iraq, official Baghdad, including the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), is more concerned with the resurgence of the so-called Islamic State (ISIS), defeated in 2018 by the efforts of the international coalition. This three-fold alliance aims to eliminate the presence of the PKK and ISIS. Hence, Türkiye’s participation at the corps level is expected to make this the largest cross-border military operation in the region's history. Subsequently, the joint military operation against PKK and other radical armed groups in the region is aimed at bolstering regional stability for the successful implementation of regional economic projects, namely the new economic corridor running through Southern Iraq towards Türkiye and eventually Europe dubbed the Development Road project.

However, the Development Road is not without challenges, as the eradication of PKK and ISIS from northern Iraq is essential. Nevertheless, under current circumstances and instability, eliminating terrorist organizations that pose security risks in the region is quite challenging. The Development Road proposal has become more viable since then due to the outbreak of the Hamas-Israel war, which has been accompanied by attacks on Red Sea shipping launched by the Yemen-based Houthi rebels.

Ankara is interested in assisting in the centralization of power in Iraq to halt terrorist violence and the Kurdish independence bid. Therefore, Türkiye will further contribute to the strengthening of Prime Minister al-Sudani's influence and power. The Development Road could significantly impact Iran's Middle East policy and its sway in the region within the framework of the new Turkish-Iraqi defence partnership.