US-Armenia Eagle Partner 2024 military drills & geopolitical implications Yerevan's strategic shift

On July 15, Armenia and the United States kicked off their joint military exercises, Eagle Partner 2024. The drills, involving the US Army in Europe and Africa and the Kansas National Guard, are set to continue in Armenia until July 24, according to the Armenian Defense Ministry.

The 11-day joint exercise, dubbed Eagle Partner, is intended to boost the “interoperability between the US and Armenia during peacekeeping and stability operations,” according to a report distributed by the US European Command.

This event is not unprecedented; in September 2023, similar Eagle Partner exercises took place, albeit on a smaller scale. Nevertheless, the significance of the current maneuvers transcends their size. The political implications of conducting these joint exercises are paramount for both Washington and Yerevan. This act signifies a notable shift in Yerevan's geopolitical stance, particularly against the backdrop of Armenia's reduced engagement with the CSTO and its vocal criticisms of the organization. The intended audience for this message is evident.

Earlier in May, Armenia participated in NATO’s military-medical exercises in Hungary, further underscoring its aspirations. Yerevan has openly expressed its desire to join the North Atlantic Alliance, with former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen lobbying on its behalf for over a year.

US-Armenia cooperation

American officials have also taken a keen interest in Armenia recently. Representatives from the US Department of Defense, including Maj-Gens Keith Phillips and Patrick Pryor, have visited Yerevan, holding discussions with their Armenian counterparts. Prior to these visits, Chief of Armenia’s General Staff Eduard Asryan met with EUCOM Deputy Commander Stephen Basham in Stuttgart to discuss regional security and the development of Armenian-American military cooperation, including US support for reforms in the Armenian armed forces.

The US sees cooperation with Armenia as a strategic opportunity to weaken Yerevan’s ties with Moscow, aiming to diminish Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus. Diplomatic efforts are also in full swing. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien has been a frequent visitor to Yerevan, offering Armenia a strategic partnership and pledging continued cooperation in defense. O’Brien's visits coincide with sessions of the Armenia-US Strategic Dialogue, a forum for bilateral discussions.

US Undersecretary of State for Civil Security, Democracy, and Human Rights Uzra Zeya visited Yerevan on July 11-12 to discuss the peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku. She urged both nations to seize the moment to finalize a peace agreement. However, this plea might be more effective if it addressed the Armenian constitution, which references the Act of Independence with claims on Azerbaijani territory. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly highlighted this constitutional clause as a primary obstacle to peace. Zeya’s remarks should take this constitutional issue into account when discussing peace agreements.

Zeya also confirmed that a Pentagon representative will be stationed at the Armenian Ministry of Defence, a move indicating the deepening US-Armenia ties. This development could provoke a strong reaction from Moscow, as it raises concerns about the potential transfer of CSTO-related intelligence to the Americans. Moreover, the presence of a US military instructor in Armenia’s Ministry of Defence might prompt Armenia to reconsider its CSTO membership and could lead to the withdrawal of Russian border guards and the military base from Gyumri.

Armenia’s move toward the West

Armenia appears to be aligning itself increasingly with Western interests. During her visit, Uzra Zeya mentioned that the US has allocated approximately $16 million for the formation of patrol police in Armenia. These funds likely aim to bolster a police force loyal to the pro-Western government of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, especially during potential protests.

Samantha Power, head of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), has echoed similar sentiments. Known for her anti-Azerbaijani stance, Power visited Yerevan twice in the past month, making provocative statements. During her September 2023 visit, she proposed establishing an international observation mission in the liberated territories of Azerbaijan - a suggestion seen as a blatant interference in Azerbaijan's sovereignty.

Power’s actions and statements underscore a double standard. While she shows support for the Karabakh Armenians and criticizes Azerbaijan, she has neglected the plight of Azerbaijani refugees and IDPs, never addressing the Khojaly genocide or demanding Armenia’s compliance with UN Security Council resolutions on Karabakh.

USAID, under Power’s leadership, has been accused of meddling in Azerbaijan’s internal affairs, attempting to destabilize the political landscape. Baku has since ousted the organization, demonstrating its resilience against foreign intervention. Despite this, officials like Power, Zeya, and O’Brien continue to push for Azerbaijan to make concessions in its dealings with Armenia, aiming to replace the defunct OSCE Minsk Group's role.

Geopolitical realignments in the South Caucasus

The geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus is evidently shifting, with Armenia increasingly gravitating towards Western alliances. This realignment not only impacts Armenia’s internal politics but also poses significant strategic implications for the broader region, particularly in its relations with Russia and Azerbaijan. As Armenia moves closer to the West, the reactions from Moscow and Baku will be critical in shaping the future stability and security of the South Caucasus.