Will Ukraine's Kursk operation change the narrative of the war? Huge appetite

Ten days have passed since Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region and Moscow's loss of large territories in the area. The successful implementation of asymmetric warfare tactics by Ukraine revealed how unprepared Moscow was for this advancement. In light of Kyiv’s advancement, Russia decided to strengthen the defence lines of Belgorod and Bryansk, while undermining the Kursk region. The immediate result of Ukraine’s steadfast advancement in Kursk has been a transformation in the morale of the Ukrainian public and, even more so, the narrative among Ukraine's international partners.

Russia appears to be relying on conscripts and troops from less critical areas to combat Ukraine’s incursion, though unsuccessfully. As such, the heavy casualties on the Russian side revealed the limitations of its military strength amid its large invasion campaign in Ukraine and deployment of major forces in eastern Ukraine. Indeed, this unprecedented operation took the world by surprise as Kyiv's troops cut through the border. According to independent sources, official Kyiv preferred not to disclose the details of the operation to anyone, including international partners. Hence, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine, General Alexander Syrski, the main mastermind behind the Kursk operation, shared the details of the operation only with the inner circle of President Volodymyr Zelensky and informed the rest of the staff just two days before the operation.

Notably, the security of operational information has been a significant problem with past Ukrainian operations, and competence in preparation and planning demonstrates lessons learned from last year's offensive. As a result, the Kursk offensive has left Russia struggling to shore up its own territory. Kyiv seems to have multiple goals with the assault, from boosting morale after a torrid few months to stretching Russia’s resources. Considering the successful blitzkrieg in the first stage of the operation, many suggested that Ukraine's main goal was to distract Russia from focusing on its offensive in the Donetsk and Luhansk frontlines and that their stay in the Kursk region would last only a few weeks.

However, considering that the Ukrainian army is installing fire points, fortifications, and military administration in the newly gained territories hints that Kyiv intends to stay there for a longer period, potentially aiming to swap territories with Russia. As for now, the Ukrainian forces continue advancing Sudzha town in Kursk in order to take full control over the biggest city of the region. Despite the Russian authorities' systematic denial that Sudzha is safe, the recent media footage suggests that the Ukrainian forces gained a significant foothold in this area. 

The successful advancement in Kursk would prompt Kyiv to launch an attack on Belgorod and Bryansk oblasts in the coming weeks, though Russia had already deployed additional forces in these areas. As such, Kyiv may suffer in manpower and heavy armoury if it decides to ambush the Russian forces.

Moreover, as soon as the front stops being dynamic, the Russians will dig defences and then bring up artillery, electronic warfare complexes, and fresh troops. In the short term, the operation has diverted the weight of Russian air-delivered bombs away from Donbas. For now, Kyiv has succeeded in demonstrating to the West that Russia’s having red lines is a just bluff and that it can be defeated. Amid Ukraine's advancement, the Western countries vowed to increase military aid in a bid to make Russia understand the cost of war.

The current phase of the war also exposed Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) inability to detect and tackle counterinsurgency on its soil despite obvious superiority in resources and manpower. In addition, Ukraine's incursion into the Kursk region will likely push Russia to pull additional forces from the occupied territories in eastern Ukraine to absorb the recent losses, though it could be insufficient to compensate it. In this vein, the Russian government would need to conduct another round of mobilization across the country to fill the manpower gap amid Kyiv's asymmetrical warfare in Kursk.

As for Ukraine, the current operation in Kursk risks additional loss of military equipment and professional servicemen as the resources are depleting very fast. The potential re-election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States (US) could push Kyiv into negotiations with Moscow, while Kamala Harris's victory would see the likely continuation of military-technical assistance from the US. Nonetheless, Ukraine seems determined to inflict grave damage on Russia before the November elections in order to gain the upper hand in the next round of negotiations with Moscow.