With new deadly escalation, Azerbaijan-Armenia peace is on no horizon How not to nullify the peace efforts?

On May 11, Azerbaijan and Armenia repeatedly engaged in deadly fire exchange alongside the conditional borderline days in advance of EU-hosted talks in Brussels aimed at inking a final peace treaty and ending the three-decades-long dispute.

Not much time has passed since Azerbaijan and Armenia last clashed over Karabakh in late July, August, and September 2022, when the deadly large-scale fighting caused death tolls on both sides. However, the clashes took place this time along their shared southern border out of Karabakh on April 11 and May 11, 2023. The recent round of fighting is another implication of the border crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which started in May 2021 and shows no signs of abating.

On May 10-11, units of the Armenian armed forces located in the Zod direction of the Basarkechar region subjected the opposite positions of the Azerbaijani Army to intensive fire from various types of small arms, deliberately committing a provocation. As a result of the fire, one Azerbaijani serviceman was killed and another was seriously wounded in the head. Meanwhile, four Armenian servicemen were injured during the skirmish. Now, relative calm was established on the Azerbaijani-Armenian conditional border.

Azerbaijani media accused Armenia of deliberately violating the ceasefire regime to delay the signing of the peace treaty in Brussels and Moscow meetings.

Shortly before the incident occurred between the warring parties, US State Secretary Anthony Blinken hosted foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington for peace talks. Although Secretary Blinken positively assessed the negotiations, the current incident threatens to undermine the process. However, when making these assessments, one should not forget that besides the interests of Baku and Yerevan, there are also the interests of Russia and the West, represented by the United States and the European Union. The way the situation develops is dependent on these external players, not less, but maybe more.

In fact, the US engagement in the peace process between Baku and Yerevan is motivated by the US desire to restore the Brussels format of the peace negotiations. As a result, European Council President Charles Michel confirmed that both leaders would attend the Brussels meeting on May 14.

However, Russia as the main stakeholder seemed upset with the newly scheduled meeting in Brussels and therefore set a separate ministerial meeting in Moscow on May 19, 2023. Russia has already announced that the reduction of tension in the region, first of all, is possible on the basis of those trilateral documents that were signed together with Russia in November 2020. However, at this point, Moscow has little to offer Baku and Yerevan regarding establishing monitoring mechanisms in the borderlines to prevent escalation.

On the other hand, the recent escalation was a challenging test for the EU’s civilian monitoring mission deployed on Armenia’s soil. The muted position of the EU mission triggered criticism in Armenia following the recent armed incident, though the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is also not in a rush to rescue Armenia. Sotk, due to its proximity to the Karabakh region, is supposed to fall under the CSTO influence, albeit with no action.

Although the skirmishes ceased for now and relative calm is ensured, the recent incident repeatedly demonstrated Azerbaijan – Armenia peace process is not smooth and that not all global powers share the same interests regarding the process. For Russia, the frequent escalation is a good leverage and precedent to extend its peacekeeping mission in the region, while the Western countries are mainly keen to achieve any concrete goal between Baku and Yerevan, paving the way for sustainable and durable peace. Nevertheless, the EU seems still optimistic that the upcoming Brussels meeting could yield positive results.

However, Azerbaijan is furious that Armenia deliberately ignites the situation in border areas right after his trip to Moscow. Although Baku is unsatisfied, it is unlikely that Azerbaijani FM Jeyhun Bayramov will skip the Moscow meeting with Ararat Mirzoyan. As for PM Nikol Pashinyan, he already assessed the chances of signing a peace document in Brussels as very "low," though he expressed commitment to attend the meeting. Considering the new incident, it is unlikely that the meeting in Brussels will have a positive atmosphere, as the warring parties are still far from reaching any consensus on concrete issues, including the final peace treaty.