"Pashinyan serves the West like a samurai serves his master"
Caliber.Az interview with Russian expert Vasily Koltashov

INTERVIEWS  26 December 2022 - 12:57

Caliber.Az interviewed Vasily Koltashov, Russian economist, director of the Institute of New Society, and political analyst.

- As you know last week Armenia refused to meet the Foreign Ministers of Russia and Azerbaijan in Moscow citing the "problems" around the Lachin road. Isn't this yet another reason for Yerevan to drag out the negotiations and consequently the peace agreement with Baku?

- The fact is that in Russia a great many people paid attention to the fact that Vladimir Putin did not go to the G20 summit, although he personally attended the CSTO meeting in Armenia, where Nikol Pashinyan refused to sign the final document. In Russia, it is often assumed that Armenia and Azerbaijan are not interested in resolving the conflict, although in my view the Azerbaijani side looks more interested in at least closing their issue, while Pashinyan is clearly seeking to create a new crisis in the region. It is therefore not surprising that Armenia refused to meet the foreign ministers of Russia and Azerbaijan in Moscow, citing the issue of the Lachin road. This is most likely part of a complex game, with the United States and England behind it.

- Armenia is delaying the launch of the Zangazur corridor, the opening of which also benefits Russia. Is Moscow using enough leverage on Armenia in this direction?

- If Armenia delays the launch of the Zangezur corridor, it is not Russia that should be asked. Moscow cannot exert enough influence on the Armenian leadership, so there is a duality in the situation. On the one hand, everyone in Yerevan says that Armenia is Moscow's ally in the Caucasus, and many in Russia agree with this, but the problem is that this ally is headed by Russia's fierce enemy Nikol Pashinyan - a hardened, experienced state-monger, not a politician. If necessary, he will destroy the Armenian people and Armenia; in fact, he has been on this path for a long time, otherwise, he would not have brought the situation to a military conflict in 2020. Realizing the different balance of power, and most importantly his wrongdoing, he could have gone for a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, and now there would not have been the great hatred that exists between the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis.

On the other hand, there is no way the Armenian leadership, stuffed with foreign agents and dependent on Washington, can be friendly to Russia. Otherwise, relations could have been resolved back in 2021. Russia is trying to put pressure on Armenia, but the limits of that pressure are limited and literally bogged down in contradictions with an ally led, as I said, by a fierce enemy of Russia.

- The ongoing action by Azerbaijani activists on the Lachin road is being presented by the Armenian side to the world as a 'humanitarian crisis' for the 120,000 Karabakh Armenians who do not exist. Why is Armenia exacerbating the situation?

- If we look at the problem more deeply, it is obvious that the Armenian leadership has brought the situation to a crisis point. While Nikol Pashinyan actually refused to engage within the CSTO, being dissatisfied with the status quo, confusing and delaying the negotiation process with Azerbaijan, it was already clear that this crisis had to arise and manifest itself in some form. It is also clear that the Azerbaijani leadership cannot be happy with the current situation, but it is clear that the actions of the sides towards each other are not friendly. At this stage, it is very difficult to keep the situation from escalating again and creating a new conflict, in which the USA and Great Britain are very much interested. These two powers are hungry for a new war in the Caucasus so Russia is also involved.

- How will Pashinyan's flirting with the West turn out in Armenia?

- Pashinyan is not flirting with the West, a misconception many have. Pashinyan is in the service of the West, serving his master like a samurai. Pashinyan may not commit seppuku in an extreme situation, but he will simply flee the country, it is clear that he serves the West as well as his entire cabinet. The Armenian leadership is deceiving the people, who, because of socio-economic peculiarities and the exodus of skilled citizens from the country, are very easy to speculate with. Even with the military defeat in the 44-day war in Karabakh, Pashinyan still manages to stay in power. Therefore, I believe it is the weakening of the West that will also lead to Pashinyan's downfall.

- Is the anti-Russian hysteria in Yerevan also provoked by the West?

- The anti-Russian hysteria that erupts in Yerevan has at times been maintained and intensified over many years. It was formed at a time when Pashinyan was just getting ready to come to power. Therefore, we can now say that the West and the European bureaucracy are extremely interested in destabilising the situation in the Caucasus in order to make Russia look weak, create problems for it in its relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and finally paralyse the Russian presence in the region. Although, peaceful settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, as well as further economic development of the entire region beneficial for Moscow, Baku, and Yerevan, is certainly in Russia's interests.

- Under what conditions can a peace treaty be signed between Baku and Yerevan?

- This is the most complicated issue for today, I would say incredibly complicated, taking into account the nuances that I have listed. I think it is possible with the resignation of Joe Biden. He must be removed from power in Washington, the US must change policy, the Conservative Party must fall in Britain under the pressure of massive popular protests, and the European Union must be in the direst of social and political circumstances. Only then will Pashinyan lose his footing, and it is possible that the new Armenian leadership will renegotiate relations with Baku.

- Is the anti-Russian hysteria in Yerevan also provoked by the West?

- The anti-Russian hysteria that erupts in Yerevan has at times been maintained and intensified over many years. It was formed at a time when Pashinyan was just getting ready to come to power. Therefore, we can now say that the West and the European bureaucracy are extremely interested in destabilising the situation in the Caucasus in order to make Russia look weak, create problems for it in its relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and finally paralyse the Russian presence in the region. Although, peaceful settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, as well as further economic development of the entire region beneficial for Moscow, Baku, and Yerevan, is certainly in Russia's interests.

- Under what conditions can a peace treaty be signed between Baku and Yerevan?

- This is the most complicated issue for today, I would say incredibly complicated, taking into account the nuances that I have listed. I think it is possible with the resignation of Joe Biden. He must be removed from power in Washington, the US must change policy, the Conservative Party must fall in Britain under the pressure of massive popular protests, and the European Union must be in the direst of social and political circumstances. Only then will Pashinyan lose his footing, and it is possible that the new Armenian leadership will renegotiate relations with Baku.

Caliber.Az