Confrontation danger: Poland insists on hosting nuclear missiles Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has said Poland intends to place American nuclear weapons on its territory in response to Russia's decision to send its nuclear weapons to Belarus.  

"As Russia intends to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, we are reaching out to the whole of NATO to participate in the Nuclear Sharing programme," he said at a press conference following the EU summit in Brussels.

Morawiecki stressed that the decision should be made by the US leadership and NATO allies. However, Polish authorities "do not want to sit idly by", he stressed. "We declare our desire for swift action in this area," the Polish prime minister insisted.

Nuclear Sharing is an agreement between the US and NATO allies to transfer nuclear bombs from US storage bases in case of military necessity. As part of the North Atlantic Alliance's mission, the United States has deployed about 150 of its nuclear bombs in Europe.

How realistic is the implementation of such a plan by Warsaw? Would the US and NATO in general be prepared to move American missiles to Poland as a response to the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) in Belarus? Would such a measure, if implemented, act as a deterrent to Moscow if it were, say, to lose the war in Ukraine? European experts shared their thoughts on the matter with Caliber.Az.

Belarusian analyst, journalist, and pro-democracy activist Alexander Otroshchenkov (Warsaw) in an interview with Caliber.Az noted that it is currently difficult to talk about the US readiness to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of Poland. “But such placement is not something unrealistic. Morawiecki talks about the deployment of these weapons within the framework of the Nuclear Sharing program, which is quite operational and within which nuclear weapons have already been deployed on the territory of five non-nuclear NATO member countries,” he pointed out.

According to the analyst, on the one hand, such a move would be an adequate response to the deployment of TNWs in Belarus and to build up the deterrence doctrine in the new environment. On the other hand, it is difficult to assess the extent to which it can become a deterrent because Moscow's desire to build up the tension between Belarus and the bordering NATO and EU member states by hybrid methods is quite obvious.

"A striking example of such hybrid aggression under a foreign flag is the hybrid attack on EU borders using migrants, which [Belarus President Alexander] Lukashenko is implementing at his hands. Putin is strongly tempted to conduct other kinds of operations under a foreign flag as well. And as a result of the recent insurgency - whether real or staged - the Wagner PMC was, in fact, removed from the jurisdiction of Russia and placed on the territory of Belarus. This significantly increases the tension around Belarus. Risks are increasing in all directions: from possible border clashes with the use of migrants to the use of TNW," Otroshchankov said.

Otroshchankov is convinced that in such a situation, the possible deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of Poland and other measures are steps that will help to explain to Putin that his tricks will not work, and it will not be possible to shift the responsibility for these or those steps to Lukashenko or Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, avoiding responsibility for them.

"If the allies are convincing enough and Putin understands that he will be held personally responsible for any attacks, especially with the use of TNWs, this will make it possible to avoid further escalation in the region," the Belarusian analyst is confident.

Stefan Meister, Head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, has remarked that so far, most NATO and US members have been very cautious about the idea of placing nuclear weapons on the territory of a former socialist state such as Poland.

"Warsaw must bear in mind that if this plan is implemented, nuclear warheads will come close to the Russian border, and with the actual loss of Belarusian sovereignty there is a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO on this border," Meister warns. This demand of the Polish side is not new, and from the tactical viewpoint, it makes sense to raise this issue on the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius,” Meister notes.

"But I still think that both the US and other NATO members are very careful not to provoke Russia too much, especially in the nuclear field. However, the red line is also shifting - there is talk about the process of Ukraine joining NATO and that Ukraine needs nuclear guarantees because that is the only way to ensure security. This will not happen now, but there is a tendency to react to this new reality in Europe, where there is no security outside NATO.

After all, nuclear deterrence is even more important now with Russia being so hostile. So, although it is still too early to talk about including Poland in the Nuclear Sharing programme, there will still be a greater NATO presence in this state and the Baltic states. However, at some point in the future that may also be an option, especially if Russia causes a "nuclear accident" at a Ukrainian nuclear power plant. I can assume that Washington will then rethink its approach to this issue," the German analyst concluded.