Experts weigh in on use of cluster munitions in Ukraine war

Heated discussions continue on the upcoming transfer of cluster munitions from Washington to Kyiv. US President Joe Biden made a statement on this decision.

In an interview with CNN, he noted that Kyiv runs out of ammunition, while the United States faced a similar problem. "I accepted the recommendation of the Department of Defense to transfer - not as a permanent measure, but for a transitional period - such shells until we produce more 155 mm ammunition," the American president explained.

According to Biden, it was not an easy decision, but the number of military resources may directly determine the outcome of the confrontation.

So, for the first time, the new package of Western military aid to Ukraine includes 155-millimeter DPICM artillery shells - cluster munitions banned by an international convention ratified by 123 countries, but the United States and Ukraine are not among them.

In his turn, US presidential national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that Ukraine would receive cluster munitions and would not remain unarmed while Washington was ramping up production of other munitions for future deliveries. He said Kyiv has provided written assurances that the weapons will be used with caution to avoid risk to civilians. In addition, the Ukrainian side has committed to future demining of areas where cluster shells were used.

"At least 38 human rights organizations have publicly opposed the transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine, where such weapons have already been used in the war with devastating consequences," the US publication The Hill stated. The article also quoted the head of the Washington office of Human Rights Watch, Sarah Yager, as urging that the fact that cluster munitions are already available in Ukraine should not be used as a pretext for sending them.

"They're already all over the country and should be cleared. That's insufficient justification for the US to send more of them," she said, emphasizing that "lawmakers, politicians, and the Biden administration might think twice when the pictures start coming in of children who have been harmed by US cluster munitions."

The Hill estimates that the ban on cluster munitions because of their indiscriminate effects is held by 18 NATO countries, which are unlikely to follow the US lead.

And UN Secretary-General António Guterres has explicitly stated that he supports the Convention on the Prohibition of Cluster Munitions and opposes the use of this type of weapon on the battlefield.

So what should we think of Washington's decision? Is it really a forced measure because of the shortage of other types of ammunition? Will cluster munitions help Ukraine? Well-known foreign experts shared their thoughts on this with Caliber.Az.

The head of the "Third Sector" analytical centre, Ukrainian political scientist Andriy Zolotarev, first of all, noted that the supply of cluster ammunition for artillery guns of 155 mm caliber is a forced measure, as there is still a significant superiority of the Russian army over the Ukrainian one in terms of firepower.

"In any case, none of the military analysts and planners envisioned that in the twenty-first century, there would be a continental war in Europe with such an expenditure of ammunition and the use of so many defeat devices. Everyone assumed that there would be conflicts of low or medium intensity, but no one envisioned a war of this scale, with a 1000-kilometer front. Accordingly, neither the military-industrial complex nor the ammunition reserves stored by NATO member states and Ukraine's partners were ready for it. Therefore, to all appearances, this is a forced measure due to the fact that the Ukrainian army's offensive does not justify the hopes that were nurtured in Europe and the United States. This is primarily due to the fact that the Ukrainian armed forces have no superiority in the air or in the availability of firepower. And cluster munitions make it possible to hit the enemy's living forces in trenches and fortifications - and this is a fairly effective means of defeat," the expert said.

But in 2008, a convention banning the use of cluster munitions üa signed, Zolotarev recalls. "Nevertheless, 16 countries still produce them. Neither the United States, China, Russia, nor Ukraine have joined this convention. That is, from the point of view of international law (despite criticism from the UN, Human Rights Watch, etc.) there is no criminality here. But I emphasize once again that the measure is forced, because apparently the US ammunition reserves have been exhausted, and they have about 3 million cluster munitions of various kinds. Therefore, some part of them will be sent to Ukraine and, as it often happens, most likely they are already in Ukraine. These charges will probably be used in the southern theater of military operations - in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.

And returning to the question of effectiveness: with cluster munitions, as with any kind of weapons, everything depends on the tactics and professionalism of those who use them. At least at this point, even with the use of artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems, Western partners have not questioned the professionalism and competence of Ukraine's servicemen. We can only hope that these munitions will not be used in residential areas, where there could be civilian casualties. The costs are known since they include the fact that about 20 per cent of such munitions remain unexploded and, in fact, turn into mines, which, even after the end of the war, can lead to civilian casualties. Naturally, additional demining of territories will be a huge problem. After all, even according to the most conservative estimates, it will take several dozen years to demine Ukraine's territories normally.

I should add that the Russian army shoots 20 to 40 thousand shells and mines every day. And the Ukrainian army - about 5-6 thousand. And given that a number of large ammunition depots left over from the Soviet Union - in Novobohdanivka, in the Kharkiv region - blew up for unknown reasons even before the war, the problem of ammunition for the Ukrainian army is critical. And their shortage is costing the Ukrainian army unnecessary losses and problems in the offensive.

I will add as a historian: just look at the example of World War II - the Rzhev battle, in 1942, the offensive at Kharkiv, which turned into a disaster, also in '42. And this is the year when the Soviet army had a total shortage of ammunition. And vice versa, when in the second half of 1943 this deficit was overcome (just look at the statistics on the relevant industry), things at the front went much better," the analyst drew a parallel.

Volodymyr Fesenko, director of the Ukrainian Center for Political Research Penta, also believes that this is a forced and most likely inevitable decision.

"First, compared to the Russian side, Ukraine does have a huge shortage of artillery shells, and this negatively affects the effectiveness of the AFU's offensive actions. Secondly, Russia is using cluster shells against Ukraine.

One should realize that Russia's war against Ukraine is not a gentleman's duel. Very often it is the most real 'ultimate fighting'. For our people, it is a war not for life, but for death, for the very existence of our state and our nation. Ukraine has to defend itself from the enemy, which surpasses it in terms of military resources, population, and economy. And we are forced to defend ourselves with all means at our disposal. We are grateful to our partners for any weapons and ammunition, which we desperately lack.

I am not a military expert and cannot assess the effectiveness of cluster shells on the battlefield. However, I do not think that they can fundamentally change the military situation. In general, if there is a shortage of conventional artillery shells, the Ukrainian troops are forced to use the ammunition that we are provided with and are grateful for their supplies," Fesenko said.

At the same time, the political analyst stressed that Ukraine would follow certain rules in using cluster shells, which were announced by Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov.

"This is a five-point list: 1) Ukraine will use cluster munitions exclusively to liberate its internationally recognized territories from occupation. They will not be used on officially recognized Russian territory; 2) the Ukrainian military will not use cluster munitions in urban areas to avoid risks to civilians. As Reznikov assured, 'the munitions will be used only in places where the Russian military is concentrated. And also to break through enemy defense lines with minimal risk to the lives of our soldiers; 3) Ukraine will keep strict records of the use of these weapons and local areas where they will be used; 4) after the de-occupation of Ukrainian territories, the lands where cluster munitions were used will be prioritized for demining; 5) Ukraine will report to its partners on the use of these munitions and their effectiveness to ensure a proper standard of transparent reporting and control," the director of the political research centre listed.