Armenia to lose control over Zangazur in case of new Karabakh war
Expert opinions on Aliyev-Blinken telephone conversation

INTERVIEWS  27 July 2022 - 12:35

As previously reported, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken wrote on Twitter that he had a telephone conversation with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, during which the parties discussed the state of Azerbaijani-Armenian peace talks. The US secretary of state highly appreciated the positive momentum of bilateral contacts, calling on the parties to further advance towards regional peace and stability.

The reasons for the activation of the United States in the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations in the post-conflict period, as well as Yerevan's attempts to push the obsolete format of the OSCE Minsk Group into the negotiation process, shared their thoughts with Caliber.Az leading Azerbaijani experts.

So, according to [Azerbaijani] MP Rasim Musabayov, the United States of America is the only superpower in the world and its attention to the problems of the South Caucasus at the level of the Secretary of State can definitely only be welcomed.

"It is clear that the United States is not omnipotent and is not able to solve all the world's problems, but at the same time, we see that where the United States does not participate, as a rule, an insurmountable impasse is formed. Undoubtedly, Secretary Blinken's calls to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is a positive sign. I do not think that the topic of conversation was exclusively the process of the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, although, of course, it took a prominent place. Most likely, the unblocking of the Armenian-Turkish border, the settlement of Turkish-Armenian relations, the opening of communications and, for sure, the Iranian agenda, which is increasingly heated, were discussed. It is very important what position Azerbaijan and Armenia will take. Perhaps they are being warned about some risks, which is also a very important nuance, in my opinion.

As for the fact that in a conversation with Pashinyan, Blinken allegedly stressed that the United States, as the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair, is ready to help settle Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, it is doubtful. The United States does not need a Minsk Group mandate to participate in certain processes. The United States is able to express its opinion and recommendations on various international problems, to provide assistance without any mandate from the bankrupt Minsk Group. For Pashinyan and the ethnic Armenian population of Karabakh, who cling to this Minsk Group as the only opportunity to revive discussions on the so-called "status" of Karabakh, this is just psychotherapy. Because Azerbaijan unequivocally declares that it does not want to know such a format of mediation in the face of the Minsk Group. France, after openly taking a pro-Armenian position (the Senate adopted an illegal resolution), understands that it is pointless to meddle with some mediation proposals and that no one will talk to them in this context. Therefore, France preferred to redirect the mediation mission to EU Council President Charles Michel.

Russia is already participating in this process as a party to the adoption of a trilateral statement at the end of the Second Karabakh War in 2020. Therefore, if the United States is interested in advancing the negotiation process of the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, you are welcome. But Washington's mediating participation as the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chair is out of the question. I think it is appropriate to recall how earlier Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov openly told the Armenian foreign minister that there is no Minsk Group and there is no need to associate any expectations with it.

On the other hand, if the US president refuses to meet with the Russian president, and if the foreign ministers of the US, France, and Russia are unable to communicate on any issue, what is the point of discussing the co-chairmanship of the Minsk Group, which includes officials from the second and third ranks of the relevant foreign ministries? They have never done anything before, dealing only with diplomatic tourism, so I don't think that the need to encourage this kind of inactive existence of the OSCE Minsk Group is in the interests of even the United States itself," Rasim Musabekov said.

His viewpoint on the events is practically identical to that of former Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Tofig Zulfugarov. He is certain that Armenia's unconstructive position plays role in [the failure to] normalise Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and it must be corrected.

"The increased activity of the United States in the process of settling Armenian-Azerbaijani relations is mainly due to the fact that Russia and Iran are trying to strengthen their influence in the region. At the same time, the West seems to remain without any opportunities to influence the regional situation in general, and in particular the long-term confrontation. That is, the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is being used to increase the role of the United States in the South Caucasus as opposed to the activation of Iran and Russia in this direction. In the same context, CIA head Burns's visit to Armenia should be regarded, since this is a common line that the United States is trying to implement," the diplomat said.

According to Zulfugarov, it is obvious that Armenia is trying in vain, but stubbornly, to wedge the OSCE Minsk Group format into the negotiation process.

"This is the only format through which it still hopes to influence the situation in Karabakh. Nevertheless, the OSCE Minsk Group has no chance of being restored, and this is most likely understood in Yerevan, although for some reason they are still trying to position themselves as the guarantor of the security of the Armenians of Karabakh, ranting about the so-called 'status'," the politician continued.

Meanwhile, he does not rule out a high probability of escalation of the conflict in Karabakh.

"To a certain extent, this is due to Armenia's readiness to completely switch to a pro-Western orientation. It is obvious that Russia, against the background of a decrease in its ability to influence this policy of the Armenian leadership, is trying to maintain control in the region no longer over the whole country, but at least over Zangazur as a key point through which Moscow expects to get first of all a railway connection with its important economic partners, such as Türkiye, Iran and further with the Persian Gulf countries. Gulf, and possibly with India. Therefore, in this case, the Zangazur Corridor acquires strategic importance for Russia, and it will fight for control over it to the end. This is also understood in the United States, and therefore certain Western forces are likely to try to prevent cooperation between Iran, Russia and Türkiye," the Azerbaijani diplomat says, stressing that in the event of a new phase of the conflict in Karabakh, Armenia may completely lose control over Zangazur.

Caliber.Az